Stirling are tipped to win this encounter, the model’s pick reflecting a 60% chance for a home victory, 23% for a draw and 17% for an Elgin win. The expected total of three goals suggests a lively match, yet the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% probability. Stirling’s home form shows they average one goal scored and 1.55 conceded against stronger opposition, while Elgin’s away numbers are similar, scoring one and conceding 1.57 against weaker teams. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 81.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 73.3% and Under 25.5 fouls at 71.9%. Stirling’s recent form, coming off a 0-4 loss to Elgin, contrasts with Elgin’s unbeaten run of five, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Stirling.
Results analysis
The upset was clear: Stirling’s home form, a win after a defeat, did not translate into the expected victory. The final score was 0-1, giving Elgin an away win. The model had picked a home win with a 60% probability, but that call was wrong. Among the model’s selections, Under 5.5 cards (81.4%) hit, while Over 1.5 (81.1%) missed, Under 11.5 corners (77.2%) missed, Over 19.5 fouls (75.2%) missed, Over 2.5 cards (73.3%) missed, and Under 25.5 fouls (71.9%) hit. The predicted total of 3.0 goals did not materialise, with the most likely 2-goal scoreline (23%) also missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✗ Miss
60.1%
Avg Implied 52.0% · @ 1.76
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 3.88
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✓ Hit
16.9%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.76
Edge
-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.77
1.27
1.40
1.00
2.13
vs Stronger (22)
0.77
2.00
1.00
1.55
0.55
2.45
vs Similar (8)
2.12
1.12
2.00
1.00
2.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.80
1.25
1.56
0.86
2.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.93
1.50
1.38
0.71
2.57
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
1.43
1.14
1.29
1.00
1.57
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.7%
@ 1.58-1.2%
Under 2.5
42.3%
@ 2.26+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
10.0%
1-0
9.0%
3-0
6.7%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
4.9%
Stirling goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
3.9%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.0%
11%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
10.0%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.7%
6.7%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.4%
3.4%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Stirling is 0.19 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Stirling is 0.06 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Stirling is 0.44 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 5.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 4.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 13.6 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.8
10.5
3.6
3.5
3.7
20.7
20.4
21.0
vs Stronger (35)
10.1
9.8
10.4
3.5
3.3
3.7
19.8
19.8
19.8
vs Similar (15)
10.2
9.9
10.6
3.8
3.9
3.7
22.9
22.0
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
61%
65%
48%
40%
56%
43%
39%
48%
% under line
37%
39%
35%
52%
60%
44%
57%
61%
52%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.8
8.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
23.8
24.4
23.1
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
8.6
8.4
8.6
3.4
4.5
2.6
24.1
24.9
23.5
vs Weaker (26)
8.8
9.1
8.4
3.2
2.5
3.9
23.5
24.1
22.8
% over line
39%
43%
35%
42%
32%
52%
63%
65%
61%
% under line
61%
57%
65%
58%
68%
48%
37%
35%
39%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.2
Forfar
10.1
Stranraer
10.0
Edinburgh City
9.9
Clyde
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.5
Spartans
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Elgin
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.1
Stirling
4.0
East Fife
3.7
Elgin
3.6
Stranraer
3.6
Edinburgh City
3.5
Clyde
3.4
Forfar
3.4
Spartans
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
24.1
Elgin
23.8
Forfar
23.8
East Fife
21.4
Spartans
20.8
Edinburgh City
20.6
Clyde
20.5
Stirling
20.5
Stranraer
19.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.4%
Under 9.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
59.8%
Under 21.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.53
0.67
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (22)
0.32
1.00
0.36
0.73
0.27
1.27
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.62
0.88
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.87
0.62
0.62
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.73
0.73
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (22)
0.45
1.00
0.64
0.82
0.27
1.18
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.62
0.69
0.50
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.07
0.88
0.75
0.57
1.43
vs Weaker (14)
0.43
0.71
0.43
0.29
0.43
1.14
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
East Fife
Edinburgh City
Spartans
Clyde
Stranraer
Forfar