Stirling’s return to home ground is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are razor thin. The odds are 40% for a Stirling victory, 30% for a draw and 30% for Elgin. The expected total goals sit at 2.4, with the most likely total being two goals (27% probability). The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance. Stirling, playing against a stronger side at home, averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded, while Elgin, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 0.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86.0%, Under 3.5 fouls at 76.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 76.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.1%, Over 1.5 at 71.4%, Over 3.5 cards at 70.9% and Under 25.5 fouls at 70.1%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
Results analysis
Stirling’s 3-1 victory over Elgin extended their recent run, turning a defeat into a win after a 0-4 loss to the same opponents. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 40% probability, proved correct. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 at 27% was not reached, but the actual 3-1 outcome still fell within the model’s broader expectations. The suggested picks performed mixed: Over 2.5 cards (86%) hit, Under 3.5 (76.9%) missed, Over 19.5 fouls (76.8%) hit, Under 11.5 corners (74.1%) hit, Over 1.5 (71.4%) hit, Over 3.5 cards (70.9%) missed, and Under 25.5 fouls (70.1%) missed. Overall, the model’s main call was right, but several secondary selections fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✓ Hit
39.8%
Avg Implied 35.0% · @ 2.61
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.24
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.49
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.73
1.47
1.67
1.47
1.80
vs Stronger (17)
1.29
1.88
1.44
1.78
1.12
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.70
1.20
1.60
2.20
1.80
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.53
1.76
1.71
0.85
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.43
2.12
0.88
1.17
2.17
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
1.29
1.86
2.00
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.2%
@ 1.91-4.7%
Under 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.83+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.5%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.5%
Stirling goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
8.5%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.6%
8.5%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.3%
3.7%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Stirling is 0.19 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Stirling is 0.06 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Stirling is 0.44 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 6.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 8.6 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 4.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.2
3.6
3.8
3.5
21.1
20.3
21.9
vs Stronger (33)
10.5
10.3
10.7
3.6
3.8
3.4
20.6
19.8
21.7
vs Similar (14)
10.8
11.8
9.7
3.6
3.7
3.6
22.4
21.5
23.3
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
13.0
8.5
3.7
3.0
4.0
20.0
23.0
18.5
% over line
68%
83%
52%
56%
54%
58%
45%
39%
52%
% under line
32%
17%
48%
44%
46%
42%
55%
61%
48%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.0
3.8
3.4
4.2
24.7
23.8
25.8
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
9.4
9.3
9.6
4.0
3.8
4.2
25.2
23.3
27.8
vs Weaker (25)
8.7
8.8
8.5
3.9
3.5
4.2
24.4
24.3
24.5
% over line
42%
41%
43%
54%
48%
61%
70%
64%
76%
% under line
58%
59%
57%
46%
52%
39%
30%
36%
24%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Forfar
9.7
Stranraer
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Clyde
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.4
Spartans
9.2
Elgin
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.5
Edinburgh City
4.4
Elgin
4.4
Stirling
4.2
Forfar
4.1
Stranraer
3.9
Clyde
3.9
East Fife
3.8
Spartans
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.0
Elgin
24.8
Forfar
24.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.8
Edinburgh City
23.3
East Fife
22.5
Spartans
22.1
Clyde
22.0
Stirling
21.1
Stranraer
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.1%
Under 9.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
70.9%
Under 3.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.8%
Under 21.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.93
0.93
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
0.82
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.62
0.88
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.71
0.71
0.31
0.46
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.50
0.75
0.12
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
0.57
0.86
1.14
0.14
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.53
0.73
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
0.94
0.44
0.78
0.50
1.12
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.90
0.40
0.80
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.06
1.00
0.54
0.85
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.93
1.38
0.75
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.86
0.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
East Fife
Edinburgh City
Spartans
Clyde
Stranraer
Forfar