PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Stirling vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 2-2
Stirling
Stirling
Vs
33%
29%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Stirling a 33% win probability against Elgin in the Scotland: League Two on 2026-04-18, with 29% for the draw and 38% for Elgin. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (75%), Under 3.5 (73%).

Results analysis

Stirling finished 2-2 against Elgin (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 33% home win, 29% draw and 38% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (75%). Missed: Under 3.5 (73%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Stirling win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 3.88
Edge
+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.7%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.77
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied 53.1% · @ 1.69
Edge
-15.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

StirlingStirling

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W11D02L33D03L23L10W13L12LA·ELG21/02H·ANN24/02H·DUM28/02A·SPA03/03A·ANN07/03H·FOR14/03A·EAS21/03H·EDI28/03A·CLY04/04A·DUM11/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.771.001.731.471.80
vs Stronger (10)1.001.901.251.750.832.00
vs Similar (16)1.381.440.891.332.001.57
vs Weaker (4)1.252.751.003.501.502.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W03L12L11D30W20W20W12L03LH·EDI24/02A·STR28/02A·EAS07/03A·ANN10/03H·DUM14/03A·EDI21/03H·FOR24/03H·CLY28/03A·FOR04/04H·ANN11/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.531.751.501.211.57
vs Stronger (3)0.334.001.006.000.003.00
vs Similar (3)1.672.332.503.000.001.00
vs Weaker (24)1.621.121.690.921.551.36
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.7%
@ 1.59-9.1%
Under 2.5
51.3%
@ 2.18+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
8.6%
0-0
8.5%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
5.8%
Stirling goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
08.5%8.6%6.7%3.0%1.0%
17.9%14%8.5%3.8%1.3%
25.8%7.9%5.4%2.4%0.8%
32.4%3.3%2.3%1.0%0.3%
40.8%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Stirling is 0.17 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.22).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Stirling is 0.14 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.42).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Stirling is 0.22 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.53).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

StirlingStirling

For 3.3 · Against 7.8 · Total 11.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

16061051076181974448212341615139107812147A·DUMA·CLYH·EDIA·EASH·FORA·ANNA·SPAH·DUMH·ANNA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8032213441135411321315248285434A·DUMA·CLYH·EDIA·EASH·FORA·ANNA·SPAH·DUMH·ANNA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.2

⚠ïļ Fouls

290111113810106171291514117981078622212023212918171714A·DUMA·CLYH·EDIA·EASH·FORA·ANNA·SPAH·DUMH·ANNA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 4.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

13052464951336733446564710136613681110H·ANNA·FORH·CLYH·FORA·EDIH·DUMA·ANNA·EASA·STRH·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60332422122411212111226643623324H·ANNA·FORH·CLYH·FORA·EDIH·DUMA·ANNA·EASA·STRH·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 11.1 · Total 24.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

350159171810101691512591091671213161524352025271419232531H·ANNA·FORH·CLYH·FORA·EDIH·DUMA·ANNA·EASA·STRH·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StirlingStirling

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.810.910.74.23.84.621.020.321.6
vs Stronger (20)10.811.010.74.84.15.420.920.221.4
vs Similar (25)10.811.210.33.83.54.221.320.921.7
vs Weaker (5)10.69.013.03.84.72.519.818.022.5
% over line60%72%48%58%52%64%40%32%48%
% under line40%28%52%42%48%36%60%68%52%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.410.110.64.44.93.922.521.623.5
vs Stronger (4)11.014.08.06.07.54.525.226.024.5
vs Similar (11)8.48.58.23.54.22.820.319.721.0
vs Weaker (35)10.910.211.64.54.84.222.921.824.1
% over line62%58%67%62%77%46%58%46%71%
% under line38%42%33%38%23%54%42%54%29%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
Dumbarton
10.6
East Kilbride
10.5
Elgin
10.4
Stranraer
10.2
Clyde
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
4.5
Elgin
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dumbarton
3.4

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.7
Forfar
24.4
Edinburgh City
24.1
Elgin
22.5
Stranraer
22.4
Clyde
22.4
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stirling
21.0
Dumbarton
20.4
Spartans
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.8%
Under 9.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.8%
Under 3.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
51.2%
Under 21.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Stirling vs Elgin · H/A from STI
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/26AElgin Vs STI1-0
22/11/25HSTI Vs Elgin1-1
13/09/25AElgin Vs STI3-0
05/04/25AElgin Vs STI0-2
08/02/25HSTI Vs Elgin3-1
14/12/24AElgin Vs STI2-4
10/08/24HSTI Vs Elgin0-1
04/04/23HSTI Vs Elgin1-0

StirlingStirling

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26ADumbarton Vs STI2-1
04/04/26AClyde Vs STI3-1
28/03/26HSTI Vs Edinburgh City1-0
21/03/26AEast Kilbride Vs STI3-2
14/03/26HSTI Vs Forfar0-3
07/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs STI3-3
03/03/26ASpartans Vs STI2-0
28/02/26HSTI Vs Dumbarton1-1
24/02/26HSTI Vs Annan Athletic2-0
21/02/26AElgin Vs STI1-0

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HELG Vs Annan Athletic0-3
04/04/26AForfar Vs ELG2-1
28/03/26HELG Vs Clyde2-0
24/03/26HELG Vs Forfar2-0
21/03/26AEdinburgh City Vs ELG0-3
14/03/26HELG Vs Dumbarton1-1
10/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG2-1
07/03/26AEast Kilbride Vs ELG3-0
28/02/26AStranraer Vs ELG1-2
24/02/26HELG Vs Edinburgh City3-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Stirling
Stirling
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.18
HomeLWDLW1.32
AwayLDLLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals3.022.883.16
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %60%60%60%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.341.321.36
Conceded1.681.561.80
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners10.8010.8810.72
Cards4.203.844.56
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.28
HomeWDWWL1.62
AwayWLLWL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%50%21%
AVG goals2.702.852.54
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %20%19%21%
Scored1.321.621.00
Conceded1.381.231.54
BTTS44%35%54%
Clean Sheet32%46%17%
Corners10.3610.1210.62
Cards4.424.883.92

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1East KilbrideEast Kilbride3669
58%
1.9
7746+31
3.4
92%
69%
50%
10.4
58%
5.6
83%
26.4
81%
0
0002.11.3
-
2SpartansSpartans3664
50%
1.8
6039+21
2.8
83%
53%
28%
9.4
47%
4.0
58%
19.9
33%
0
0001.71.1
-
3ClydeClyde3656
39%
1.6
5841+17
2.8
83%
53%
33%
9.8
42%
4.1
61%
21.4
44%
0
0001.61.1
-
4ForfarForfar3650
36%
1.4
5147+4
2.7
72%
50%
36%
9.2
50%
4.1
58%
23.8
67%
0
0001.41.3
-
5StranraerStranraer3647
33%
1.3
4646+0
2.6
78%
50%
28%
11.0
63%
4.3
66%
22.5
57%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ElginElgin3644
31%
1.2
5155-4
2.9
86%
56%
25%
10.5
60%
4.2
60%
22.8
60%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3641
28%
1.1
4758-11
2.9
78%
56%
36%
9.9
50%
4.4
64%
23.8
72%
0
0001.31.6
-
8DumbartonDumbarton3640
28%
1.1
4761-14
3.0
92%
58%
28%
10.6
54%
3.5
46%
20.8
46%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3639
28%
1.1
4572-27
3.2
86%
69%
44%
9.5
51%
5.2
80%
23.8
66%
0
0001.22.0
-
10StirlingStirling3638
25%
1.1
4663-17
3.0
83%
58%
36%
11.4
58%
4.1
58%
20.7
36%
0
0001.31.8
-
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

← all matches