Stirling are tipped to edge Forfar in a 48% home-win favourite, a result that the model deems most likely. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 13.6%. Stirling’s home form shows an average of 2.62 goals scored and only 0.88 conceded against similar opposition, while Forfar’s away record is a modest 1.0 goal for and 1.0 against. The probabilities for the main outcomes are 48% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 23% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 81.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.0%, Under 3.5 goals at 77.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.8% and Over 1.5 goals at 70.9%. Stirling, coming off a 0-4 loss, will look to reverse their recent slump against Forfar, who are also trying to improve after a 1-1 draw.
Results analysis
Stirling’s 2-1 victory over Forfar extended a modest run, ending a defeat to Elgin. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, reflecting a 48% probability. The predicted 2-1 scoreline matched the final result, and the most likely total of 2 goals was achieved. The model’s selections performed largely well: Under 25.5 fouls hit at 81.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.0%, Under 3.5 at 77.4%, and Over 1.5 at 70.9%. Two picks missed: Under 11.5 corners (77.3%) and Over 2.5 cards (75.8%). Overall, the model delivered a balanced and largely accurate post-match review.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied 54.5% · @ 1.68
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.83
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 21.6% · @ 4.25
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.97
2.33
1.00
1.53
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
1.79
1.00
2.00
1.14
1.57
0.86
vs Similar (16)
2.06
0.94
2.62
0.88
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.20
1.00
1.40
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.08
0.83
1.17
1.17
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.28
1.11
1.56
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.7%
@ 1.74-10.0%
Under 2.5
56.3%
@ 2.02+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.6%
Under 3.5
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
11.8%
0-0
10.1%
2-0
9.7%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.8%
Stirling goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.1%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.9%
1.9%
0.4%
2
9.7%
9.1%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.8%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Stirling is 0.69 points better than Forfar in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Stirling is 0.83 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Stirling is 0.17 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 4.7 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 9.8 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 5.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.1
9.4
4.0
3.6
4.4
21.0
20.2
21.8
vs Stronger (22)
8.8
8.0
9.6
4.7
4.5
4.9
22.5
23.3
21.8
vs Similar (28)
9.6
9.9
9.2
3.5
2.9
4.1
19.8
17.7
21.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
40%
40%
56%
44%
68%
40%
32%
48%
% under line
60%
60%
60%
44%
56%
32%
60%
68%
52%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.1
9.8
3.5
3.3
3.7
22.1
21.4
22.8
vs Stronger (22)
11.5
12.6
10.4
3.8
3.4
4.3
22.0
21.1
23.0
vs Similar (28)
9.6
9.9
9.4
3.2
3.2
3.3
22.1
21.6
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
76%
48%
50%
36%
64%
48%
48%
48%
% under line
38%
24%
52%
50%
64%
36%
52%
52%
52%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
11.0
Forfar
10.5
Dumbarton
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.8
Albion Rvs
9.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.5
Stranraer
9.4
Stirling
9.2
East Fife
9.2
Elgin
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Elgin
4.1
East Fife
4.1
Albion Rvs
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Stranraer
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Forfar
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
22.4
Elgin
22.2
Forfar
22.1
Albion Rvs
21.6
East Fife
21.4
Stranraer
21.1
Stirling
21.0
Annan Athletic
20.7
Stenhousemuir
20.6
Dumbarton
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.3%
Under 9.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.1%
Under 3.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.1%
Under 21.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.33
0.67
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
0.64
1.14
0.86
0.86
0.43
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.56
1.50
0.50
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.27
0.87
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.58
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.56
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.37
1.00
0.33
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
0.36
0.86
0.29
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.38
1.12
0.38
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.83
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.61
0.78
0.56
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dumbarton
Annan Athletic
East Fife
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Elgin