Stirling vs Forfar Result & Analysis

Stirling’s defensive record at home shows they concede just one goal on average, while Forfar’s away side concedes 1.33, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. The model predicts a 34% chance of an away win, 33% for a home win and 32% for a draw, with the most likely result being an away victory. The expected total goals hover around 2.1, and the single most probable total is 2, which carries a 28% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% chance of that exact result.

Stirling, playing at home, averages 2.33 goals scored against similar opposition, while Forfar scores 1.0 away and concedes 1.33. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 83.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 78.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.3%, and Under 11.5 corners at 76.3%. Each selection is presented with its probability, and no edge percentages are provided.

Stirling’s return to the top of the table was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, Forfar, failed to deliver. The match finished 2-1 in favour of the home side, a result that contradicted the model’s pick of an away win with a 34% probability. The model’s selection was therefore wrong. The model’s other selections performed largely as expected: Under 3.5 goals hit at 83.3%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 76.3%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 76.3%. Over 19.5 fouls missed at 78.9%. The game’s 2-goal total matched the most likely scoreline, with the 1-1 outcome the most probable at 14.8%.