Stirling are tipped to edge Forfar in a 2-goal affair, with a 45% chance of a home win, 28% for a draw and 26% for an away victory. The model favours a 1-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome at 13.5%. On average, the match should see 2.6 goals, with the single most probable total of two goals at 26%. Stirling’s home form against similar opposition shows 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Forfar’s away record against similar teams yields 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The suggested picks include an 85.2% chance of over 2.5 cards, a 77.3% chance of over 19.5 fouls, a 74.2% chance of over 1.5 goals, and a 73.9% chance of under 3.5 goals. The recent form narrative starts with Stirling’s return from a 0-4 loss to Elgin, and Forfar’s comeback after a 1-1 draw with Edinburgh City.
Results analysis
Stirling’s recent form, a win after a defeat, set the tone as the home side faced Forfar, who were coming off a draw. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 45% probability, and that call proved correct as Stirling triumphed 3-1. The expected total of 2.6 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 were not reached, but the model’s selections largely hit: Over 2.5 cards (85.2%) and Over 19.5 fouls (77.3%) both came in, as did Over 1.5 (74.2%). Under 3.5 (73.9%) missed, but the overall performance of the predictions was strong.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✓ Hit
45.3%
Avg Implied 39.4% · @ 2.33
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.22
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 32.2% · @ 2.85
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.73
1.60
1.67
1.47
1.80
vs Stronger (18)
1.39
1.83
1.60
1.70
1.12
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.78
1.25
1.75
2.20
1.80
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
1.00
1.25
0.64
1.64
vs Stronger (20)
0.90
1.35
1.11
1.11
0.73
1.55
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.75
1.00
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.8%
@ 1.96+0.2%
Under 2.5
52.2%
@ 1.78-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
Stirling goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.0%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1
10%
14%
6.7%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.2%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.6%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Stirling is 0.33 points better than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Stirling is 0.58 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 0.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Stirling is 0.42 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 5.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 1.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 8.9 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 7.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 10.5 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.2
3.6
3.7
3.5
21.0
20.3
21.9
vs Stronger (34)
10.5
10.3
10.7
3.6
3.8
3.4
20.8
20.1
21.7
vs Similar (13)
10.8
12.2
9.7
3.5
3.5
3.6
21.9
20.2
23.3
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
13.0
8.5
3.7
3.0
4.0
20.0
23.0
18.5
% over line
68%
83%
52%
54%
50%
58%
45%
39%
52%
% under line
32%
17%
48%
46%
50%
42%
55%
61%
48%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.6
10.2
3.7
3.5
3.9
24.6
24.0
25.2
vs Stronger (31)
9.5
9.6
9.4
3.6
3.7
3.6
25.5
24.0
26.9
vs Similar (15)
9.9
9.0
11.4
3.9
3.7
4.2
24.4
24.7
24.0
vs Weaker (4)
12.8
12.5
13.0
3.0
1.0
5.0
19.5
21.5
17.5
% over line
51%
39%
65%
58%
56%
61%
74%
70%
80%
% under line
49%
61%
35%
42%
44%
39%
26%
30%
20%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.6
Forfar
9.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.6
East Fife
9.5
Stranraer
9.4
Clyde
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.4
Spartans
9.2
Elgin
8.9
Peterhead
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.5
Edinburgh City
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Forfar
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Stranraer
3.9
Clyde
3.9
East Fife
3.8
Spartans
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.2
Elgin
24.7
Forfar
24.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.6
East Fife
22.3
Clyde
22.0
Spartans
22.0
Stirling
21.0
Stranraer
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.3%
Under 9.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.8%
Under 3.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.5%
Under 21.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.87
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
0.89
1.10
0.90
0.62
0.88
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.75
0.75
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.67
0.38
0.62
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.44
0.18
0.55
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
0.94
0.50
0.80
0.50
1.12
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.62
0.62
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
0.85
0.78
0.67
0.55
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Peterhead
East Fife
Edinburgh City
Elgin
Spartans
Clyde
Stranraer