The match between Stirling and Forfar is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are almost evenly split: a 33% chance of a Stirling victory, 29% for a draw and 38% for Forfar. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, but the most likely total is two. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.8% chance. Stirling, playing at home against a side of similar strength, averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. Forfar, on the road, has a stronger attack, scoring 1.83 on average, while conceding 1.33. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards (80.9%), Under 25.5 fouls (76.4%), Over 1.5 goals (74.4%), Under 3.5 goals (73.8%), Under 5.5 cards (72.8%) and Over 19.5 fouls (70.8%). Stirling’s recent form shows a win after a defeat, while Forfar has a draw following a stalemate. The predicted outcome remains an away win, reflecting the slight edge in probabilities.
Results analysis
Stirling finished 0-3 against Forfar (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 33% home win, 29% draw and 38% away win. Picks that landed: Under 25.5 fouls (76%), Over 1.5 (74%), Under 3.5 (74%), Under 5.5 cards (73%), Over 19.5 fouls (71%). Missed: Over 2.5 cards (81%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied 32.0% · @ 2.79
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.13
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✓ Hit
37.9%
Avg Implied 39.4% · @ 2.27
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.73
1.00
1.64
1.69
1.81
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
1.91
1.25
1.75
1.14
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.44
0.88
1.12
2.12
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.67
1.00
3.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
1.44
1.31
1.14
1.71
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
2.09
1.20
1.60
0.67
2.50
vs Similar (15)
1.80
1.33
1.78
1.33
1.83
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.96+1.1%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.73-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
8.8%
0-0
8.7%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
5.8%
Stirling goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
8.8%
6.8%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.1%
14%
8.5%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.8%
7.8%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.4%
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Stirling is 0.33 points worse than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Stirling is 0.14 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Stirling is 0.44 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 3.9 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 9.2 · Total 19.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 4.8 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.4
3.7
3.6
3.7
20.9
20.3
21.5
vs Stronger (23)
11.1
11.0
11.1
3.6
3.4
3.8
20.6
20.2
21.0
vs Similar (23)
10.5
11.2
9.8
3.7
3.5
3.8
21.3
21.0
21.6
vs Weaker (4)
9.5
9.0
11.0
4.2
4.7
3.0
19.5
18.0
24.0
% over line
59%
70%
48%
50%
48%
52%
39%
35%
43%
% under line
41%
30%
52%
50%
52%
48%
61%
65%
57%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.2
8.7
4.0
3.8
4.3
24.5
23.6
25.4
vs Stronger (21)
9.0
9.0
9.0
3.9
3.4
4.3
25.4
23.6
27.0
vs Similar (23)
8.4
9.2
7.4
4.0
4.1
4.0
24.9
24.8
24.9
vs Weaker (6)
10.8
9.7
12.0
4.7
4.0
5.3
20.8
19.0
22.7
% over line
40%
36%
43%
62%
56%
68%
79%
73%
86%
% under line
60%
64%
57%
38%
44%
32%
21%
27%
14%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
10.8
Stirling
10.7
Elgin
10.4
Stranraer
10.4
Dumbarton
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.8
Clyde
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.2
Forfar
9.2
Spartans
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.8
Clyde
4.5
Elgin
4.5
Stirling
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Stranraer
4.1
Annan Athletic
3.8
Dumbarton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.9
Edinburgh City
24.4
Forfar
24.4
Elgin
22.4
Clyde
22.0
Stranraer
21.7
Annan Athletic
21.6
Stirling
20.9
Dumbarton
20.3
Spartans
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.2%
Under 9.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.2%
Under 3.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
54.5%
Under 21.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.36
0.93
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.25
1.25
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.81
0.56
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.27
0.80
1.00
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.40
1.00
0.44
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
0.64
0.71
1.12
0.88
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.71
1.29
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.56
0.38
0.62
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.82
0.40
0.60
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.93
0.78
0.89
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Stranraer
Elgin
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton
Edinburgh City