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Stirling vs Spartans Result & Analysis

Date: 04/02/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 1-3
Stirling
Stirling
Vs
39%
27%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Spartans
Spartans
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Stirling and Spartans is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 39%. Draws sit at 27% and an away victory at 34%. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 12.9% chance. Stirling, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.62 conceded, while Spartans, on the road to a weaker side, average 1.0 scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards at 81.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.8%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.6% and Under 5.5 cards at 71.4%. Stirling’s recent form shows a dip after a 0-4 loss to Elgin, whereas Spartans are fresh from a 3-3 draw with Clyde. The match remains finely balanced, with the model’s pick clearly the home win.

Results analysis

The surprise came early as the pre-match favourite, Stirling, failed to deliver, with Spartans clinching a 1-3 victory. Stirling entered the game on a shaky run, having lost their last match 0-4 to Elgin, while Spartans were buoyed by a recent 3-3 draw with Clyde. The model had tipped a home win with a 39% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 81.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.8%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.6%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.4%. All these picks were fulfilled, underscoring the match’s unpredictability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stirling win✗ Miss
38.7%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.78
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.16
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartans win✓ Hit
33.9%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.40
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

StirlingStirling

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D12L03L42W11D22D02L23L30W34LA·FOR30/11A·BON03/12H·EDI07/12A·ELG14/12H·STR21/12A·FOR28/12A·CLY04/01A·PET18/01H·BON25/01A·EDI01/02
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.671.501.571.561.75
vs Stronger (16)1.311.811.501.621.122.00
vs Similar (11)1.821.641.201.602.331.67
vs Weaker (3)1.671.003.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpartansSpartans

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L30W30W13L32W15L10W22D10W02LA·PET02/11A·FOR09/11H·STI16/11H·STR10/12H·CLY14/12A·EAS21/12H·EDI28/12A·BON21/01H·PET25/01A·STR01/02
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.301.201.071.331.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.241.410.881.121.561.67
vs Weaker (13)1.311.151.571.001.001.33
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
@ 2.02+7.8%
Under 2.5
45.9%
@ 1.74-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
7.0%
0-1
6.8%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
Stirling goals ↓
Spartans goals →
01234
07.0%6.8%5.5%2.5%0.9%
17.4%13%8.0%3.7%1.3%
26.3%8.7%5.9%2.7%0.9%
33.1%4.3%2.9%1.3%0.5%
41.1%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Spartans goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Stirling is 0.11 points worse than Spartans in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Stirling is 0.06 goals better than Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Stirling is 0.28 goals worse than Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

StirlingStirling

For 5.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.7

🚩 Corners

170610227237789656686346129514171112147A·EDIH·BONA·PETA·CLYA·FORH·STRA·ELGH·EDIA·BONA·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.4

🟨 Cards

60313333314122551134664545514A·EDIH·BONA·PETA·CLYA·FORH·STRA·ELGH·EDIA·BONA·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.5 · Total 20.8

⚠️ Fouls

2701369151013910141066189128106121219242319241227201624A·EDIH·BONA·PETA·CLYA·FORH·STRA·ELGH·EDIA·BONA·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

SpartansSpartans

For 3.2 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.4

🚩 Corners

14017282661568424355278108751467109A·STRH·PETA·BONH·EDIA·EASH·CLYH·STRH·STIA·FORA·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

80143134411232312415438135425A·STRH·PETA·BONH·EDIA·EASH·CLYH·STRH·STIA·FORA·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.0

⚠️ Fouls

29079149101620888515991212713191016232628162018242029A·STRH·PETA·BONH·EDIA·EASH·CLYH·STRH·STIA·FORA·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StirlingStirling

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.610.910.33.73.83.621.220.921.6
vs Stronger (32)10.510.310.73.73.93.421.120.521.7
vs Similar (15)10.811.810.03.73.73.821.921.522.3
vs Weaker (3)10.013.08.53.73.04.020.023.018.5
% over line68%82%55%58%56%60%45%41%50%
% under line32%18%45%42%44%40%55%59%50%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpartansSpartans

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.09.78.33.13.22.922.423.221.6
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (25)8.39.87.22.73.32.323.924.623.5
vs Weaker (25)9.59.79.43.43.13.721.022.219.8
% over line42%48%36%42%44%40%53%62%45%
% under line58%52%64%58%56%60%47%38%55%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Forfar
9.7
Stranraer
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Clyde
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.4
Spartans
9.1
Elgin
8.8
Peterhead
8.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.5
Edinburgh City
4.4
Elgin
4.4
Stirling
4.2
Forfar
4.1
Stranraer
3.9
Clyde
3.9
East Fife
3.8
Spartans
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.0
Elgin
24.8
Forfar
24.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.8
Edinburgh City
23.3
East Fife
22.5
Spartans
22.3
Clyde
22.0
Stirling
21.3
Stranraer
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.5%
Under 9.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.6%
Under 3.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
52.5%
Under 21.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StirlingStirling

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D02L31W00D01L01L12L30W12LA·FOR30/11A·BON03/12H·EDI07/12A·ELG14/12H·STR21/12A·FOR28/12A·CLY04/01A·PET18/01H·BON25/01A·EDI01/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.831.000.860.690.81
vs Stronger (16)0.880.881.120.880.620.88
vs Similar (11)0.820.820.800.800.830.83
vs Weaker (3)0.670.671.001.000.500.50
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpartansSpartans

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W00D12L21W02L00D11D00D01LA·PET02/11A·FOR09/11H·STI16/11H·STR10/12H·CLY14/12A·EAS21/12H·EDI28/12A·BON21/01H·PET25/01A·STR01/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.570.330.470.470.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.350.530.250.380.440.67
vs Weaker (13)0.460.620.430.570.500.67
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

StirlingStirling

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L01L11D11D21W01L11D00D22DA·FOR30/11A·BON03/12H·EDI07/12A·ELG14/12H·STR21/12A·FOR28/12A·CLY04/01A·PET18/01H·BON25/01A·EDI01/02
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.500.710.880.94
vs Stronger (16)0.440.940.380.750.501.12
vs Similar (11)1.000.820.400.801.500.83
vs Weaker (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpartansSpartans

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W30W01L11D13L10W11D10W01LA·PET02/11A·FOR09/11H·STI16/11H·STR10/12H·CLY14/12A·EAS21/12H·EDI28/12A·BON21/01H·PET25/01A·STR01/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.730.870.600.870.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.880.880.620.751.111.00
vs Weaker (13)0.850.541.140.430.500.67
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards81.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.578.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls78.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners74.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards71.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
STI wins
0
Draws
1
SPA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stirling vs Spartans · H/A from STI
DateH/AGameScore
16/11/24ASpartans Vs STI3-0
31/08/24HSTI Vs Spartans1-0

StirlingStirling

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/02/25AEdinburgh City Vs STI4-3
25/01/25HSTI Vs Bonnyrigg Rose3-0
18/01/25APeterhead Vs STI3-2
04/01/25AClyde Vs STI2-0
28/12/24AForfar Vs STI2-2
21/12/24HSTI Vs Stranraer1-1
14/12/24AElgin Vs STI2-4
07/12/24HSTI Vs Edinburgh City0-3
03/12/24ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STI2-1
30/11/24AForfar Vs STI2-2

SpartansSpartans

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/02/25AStranraer Vs SPA2-0
25/01/25HSPA Vs Peterhead1-0
21/01/25ABonnyrigg Rose Vs SPA2-2
28/12/24HSPA Vs Edinburgh City1-0
21/12/24AEast Fife Vs SPA5-1
14/12/24HSPA Vs Clyde3-2
10/12/24HSPA Vs Stranraer1-3
16/11/24HSPA Vs Stirling3-0
09/11/24AForfar Vs SPA0-3
02/11/24APeterhead Vs SPA2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stirling
Stirling
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWL1.16
HomeWLLDW1.28
AwayWDLLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals3.062.883.24
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %62%56%68%
Over 3.5 %38%36%40%
Scored1.421.481.36
Conceded1.641.401.88
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners10.5710.8610.27
Cards4.184.324.05
Spartans
Spartans
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWL1.52
HomeWLWWW1.60
AwayLWLDL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals2.482.442.52
Over 1.5 %64%60%68%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %28%24%32%
Scored1.281.201.36
Conceded1.201.241.16
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet44%48%40%
Corners8.989.718.27
Cards3.563.813.32

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PeterheadPeterhead3666
53%
1.8
5240+12
2.6
61%
44%
33%
8.5
36%
5.3
86%
25.0
75%
0
0001.41.1
-
2East FifeEast Fife3665
56%
1.8
6537+28
2.8
72%
47%
28%
9.7
56%
4.2
67%
23.6
58%
0
0001.81.0
-
3Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3656
47%
1.6
5447+7
2.8
75%
47%
28%
9.2
42%
4.8
81%
24.4
72%
0
0001.51.3
-
4ElginElgin3655
44%
1.5
4841+7
2.5
72%
39%
19%
9.4
53%
4.8
75%
23.4
61%
0
0001.31.1
-
5SpartansSpartans3652
42%
1.4
4847+1
2.6
75%
47%
31%
8.8
39%
4.2
67%
22.0
53%
0
0001.31.3
-
6StirlingStirling3648
39%
1.3
5057-7
3.0
86%
61%
33%
10.1
64%
4.2
61%
21.5
47%
0
0001.41.6
-
7ClydeClyde3643
31%
1.2
4954-5
2.9
83%
50%
33%
9.6
50%
4.6
64%
22.8
58%
0
0001.41.5
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3642
33%
1.2
4062-22
2.8
86%
50%
28%
9.0
39%
4.9
78%
24.4
69%
0
0001.11.7
-
9StranraerStranraer3640
31%
1.1
3442-8
2.1
67%
42%
11%
9.1
42%
4.2
56%
20.6
33%
0
0000.91.2
-
10ForfarForfar3636
22%
1.0
2942-13
2.0
61%
33%
11%
9.3
36%
4.9
78%
24.7
78%
0
0000.81.2
-
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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