Stirling’s defensive record at home shows a tidy 0.67 goals conceded per game, while Stranraer’s away form is slightly more porous, conceding 1.0 goal on average. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance, a 32% chance of a draw and a 33% chance of an away win. The expected total goals hover at 2.2, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability.
Stirling’s average of 0.83 goals scored at home against similar opposition contrasts with Stranraer’s 1.33 away goals scored. The suggested selections include Under 5.5 cards at 86.7%, Under 3.5 goals at 81.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.0%, Under 4.5 cards at 73.9% and Under 25.5 fouls at 72.1%.
Results analysis
Stirling’s run of four defeats and a win left them looking shaky, while Stranraer entered on a win and a solid away record. The match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s favourite, Home win, which had a 36% chance. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Under 5.5 cards at 86.7%, Under 3.5 at 81.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.0%, Under 4.5 cards at 73.9%, and Under 25.5 fouls at 72.1%. The most likely score of 1-1, with a 28% probability, proved correct, while the expected total of 2.2 goals was met by the 2-goal tally.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied 54.0% · @ 1.70
Edge
-18.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.67
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied 21.0% · @ 4.36
Edge
+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.03
1.21
0.93
2.00
1.12
vs Stronger (15)
1.80
1.00
1.50
1.12
2.14
0.86
vs Similar (15)
1.47
1.07
0.83
0.67
1.89
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.07
1.47
1.07
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (25)
1.44
0.96
1.54
0.85
1.33
1.08
vs Similar (5)
1.20
1.60
1.00
2.50
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.6%
Under 1.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.5%
@ 1.85-12.2%
Under 2.5
61.5%
@ 1.90+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.7%
0-0
12.1%
1-0
11.0%
0-1
10.3%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
6.3%
Stirling goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.3%
2.3%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.1%
7.7%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.7%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Stirling is 0.14 points worse than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Stirling is 0.25 goals worse than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Stirling is 0.22 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 5.5 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 10.3 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 4.6 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 13.7 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.2
3.8
3.2
4.4
23.3
22.9
23.6
vs Stronger (29)
10.1
10.8
9.4
3.6
3.1
4.1
22.6
22.3
22.9
vs Similar (21)
11.0
10.7
11.2
4.2
3.3
4.8
24.2
23.9
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
62%
46%
56%
38%
73%
62%
58%
65%
% under line
46%
38%
54%
44%
62%
27%
38%
42%
35%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.5
9.6
3.4
3.1
3.7
22.6
23.6
21.8
vs Stronger (39)
9.3
8.9
9.7
3.5
3.2
3.8
22.4
23.7
21.2
vs Similar (11)
10.4
11.6
9.3
3.3
2.8
3.7
23.5
23.2
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
50%
46%
46%
29%
62%
56%
62%
50%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
54%
71%
38%
44%
38%
50%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.7
Stirling
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.0
Elgin
10.0
Cowdenbeath
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.8
Stranraer
9.5
Kelty Hearts
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.1
Forfar
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Annan Athletic
3.9
Stirling
3.8
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.7
Stranraer
3.4
Forfar
3.1
Albion Rvs
3.1
Kelty Hearts
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.3
Cowdenbeath
23.7
Stirling
23.3
Stranraer
22.6
Stenhousemuir
22.6
Elgin
22.3
Forfar
22.1
Albion Rvs
22.1
Edinburgh City
21.9
Kelty Hearts
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.9%
Under 9.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.8%
Under 3.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.5%
Under 21.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.29
0.50
1.12
0.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.60
0.25
0.62
1.00
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.40
0.33
0.33
1.22
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (25)
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.54
0.58
0.58
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.93
0.43
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
0.40
1.25
0.50
1.14
0.29
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.67
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.87
0.33
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (25)
0.84
0.40
0.92
0.31
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stirling and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Stranraer have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Stirling and Stranraer have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Forfar
Annan Athletic
Edinburgh City
Stenhousemuir
Elgin
Cowdenbeath