PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling’s recent form has been uneven, with a defeat against Elgin leaving the team looking shaky at home, while Stranraer come off a win over Kelty Hearts and have been more consistent on the road. The model therefore favours an away win, giving Stranraer a 47% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of a Stirling win. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a modestly high scoring encounter, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7% chance, and that is the only scoreline to be cited.
Stirling, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Stranraer, on the road, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 86.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 83.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.8%, Over 1.5 at 78.5% (miss), Under 4.5 cards at 73.3%, and Under 23.5 fouls at 71.5%. These are the only picks offered, each with its own probability.
Stirling’s win, 1-0, was a surprise after the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, was wrong. The model had given the away side a 47% chance of triumph, yet the home team edged them out. The match finished with a 1-0 scoreline, a home win that contradicted the model’s expectation. The model’s other selections performed largely as predicted: Under 5.5 cards hit at 86.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 83.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.8%, Under 4.5 cards at 73.3%, and Under 23.5 fouls at 71.5%. Only the Over 1.5 selection missed, with a 78.5% probability. Stirling’s recent form shows a win after a defeat, while Stranraer came off a win.
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.40 | 1.07 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.08 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.43 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.11 | 1.44 | 0.88 | 1.75 | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Stranraer| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.57 | 1.07 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 1.29 | 1.38 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.50 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Stranraer goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 13% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
StirlingStranraerStirling| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 22.9 | 23.0 | 22.8 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 8.4 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 23.1 | 23.2 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (27) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 22.7 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 40% | 48% | 32% | 60% | 44% | 76% | 56% | 64% | 48% |
| % under line | 60% | 52% | 68% | 40% | 56% | 24% | 44% | 36% | 52% |
Stranraer| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 22.6 | 22.9 | 22.2 |
| vs Stronger (41) | 8.7 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 22.0 | 22.6 | 21.3 |
| vs Similar (9) | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 25.3 | 24.5 | 26.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 40% | 48% | 32% | 54% | 40% | 68% | 52% | 56% | 48% |
| % under line | 60% | 52% | 68% | 46% | 60% | 32% | 48% | 44% | 52% |
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.63 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.39 | 0.72 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Stranraer| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.42 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.75 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Stranraer| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 0.54 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 86.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 83.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 78.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 78.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 cards | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/22 | A | 3-3 | |
| 16/10/21 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/08/21 | A | 0-3 | |
| 01/05/21 | H | 2-2 | |
| 13/04/21 | H | 0-1 | |
| 05/12/20 | A | 2-2 |
Stirling| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 19/03/22 | H | 0-3 | |
| 12/03/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/03/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/03/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/02/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 15/02/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/02/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 29/01/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 15/01/22 | A | 3-3 |
Stranraer| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/03/22 | H | 3-0 | |
| 05/03/22 | A | 4-1 | |
| 26/02/22 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/02/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/02/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 05/02/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 29/01/22 | A | 3-2 | |
| 22/01/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 15/01/22 | H | 3-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Kelty Hearts | 36 | 81 | 67% | 2.2 | 68 | 28 | +40 | 2.7 | 69% | 47% | 33% | 9.0 | 39% | 3.2 | 36% | 20.0 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 |  Forfar | 36 | 60 | 44% | 1.7 | 57 | 36 | +21 | 2.6 | 78% | 36% | 28% | 9.3 | 47% | 3.1 | 44% | 22.2 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 |  Annan Athletic | 36 | 59 | 50% | 1.6 | 64 | 51 | +13 | 3.2 | 86% | 64% | 42% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 21.7 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 4 |  Edinburgh City | 36 | 52 | 39% | 1.4 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 2.6 | 75% | 47% | 31% | 8.9 | 50% | 3.1 | 36% | 19.6 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 5 |  Stenhousemuir | 36 | 49 | 36% | 1.4 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 2.6 | 78% | 42% | 28% | 9.8 | 53% | 3.7 | 61% | 21.2 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Stranraer | 36 | 47 | 36% | 1.3 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 33% | 8.8 | 39% | 4.3 | 58% | 22.1 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Stirling | 36 | 42 | 31% | 1.2 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 2.4 | 67% | 44% | 25% | 8.4 | 25% | 3.8 | 56% | 21.7 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | AR Albion Rvs | 36 | 39 | 28% | 1.1 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 2.6 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 8.8 | 33% | 3.0 | 33% | 20.1 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 |  Elgin | 36 | 37 | 25% | 1.0 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 2.3 | 81% | 36% | 19% | 8.1 | 22% | 3.9 | 53% | 22.9 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 |  Cowdenbeath | 36 | 29 | 19% | 0.8 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 2.1 | 64% | 36% | 17% | 9.1 | 33% | 3.9 | 53% | 21.5 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | - |