Stjarnan are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 48% chance of triumph, a 25% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of an IBV win. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a lively encounter, yet the most probable total is two goals, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at an 11.8% probability. Stjarnan’s home form shows they have scored and conceded 1.0 and 2.0 goals respectively against a stronger opponent, while IBV, playing away, has averaged 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger sides. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 82% probability, an edge that reflects the anticipated attacking output. These figures outline the match’s likely shape and the key outcome the model predicts.
Results analysis
Stjarnan’s 1-0 win over IBV Vestmannaeyjar extended their two-game winning run, while the visitors slipped further into a slump after three consecutive defeats. The match finished with a 1-0 scoreline, a home win that matched the model’s prediction and confirmed the pre-match favourite, which held a 48% probability of victory. The model had also forecast a total of 3.1 goals, far above the single goal that actually fell. Its suggested pick for Over 1.5 goals, with an 82% probability, missed, as the game produced only one goal. All figures and outcomes are taken directly from the data.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stjarnan win✓ Hit
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.29
1.43
1.33
1.00
3.00
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.17
1.67
1.33
1.00
3.00
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.86
0.50
1.50
1.33
2.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.60
0.67
1.00
1.50
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.0%
Under 2.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.6%
Under 3.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.4%
1-0 ✓
7.3%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.8%
3-1
5.6%
Stjarnan goals ↓
IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
4.9%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
1
7.3%
12%
6.9%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.4%
5.6%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.0%
2.5%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Breidablik
2.33
KA Akureyri
1.96
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.78
KR Reykjavik
1.41
Stjarnan
1.37
Keflavik
1.37
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.19
Fram Reykjavik
1.15
FH hafnarfjordur
0.93
IA Akranes
0.93
Leiknir R.
0.78
Stjarnan is 0.19 points better than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Breidablik
2.44
Keflavik
2.07
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.96
Valur Reykjavik
1.70
Stjarnan
1.63
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.59
KR Reykjavik
1.56
FH hafnarfjordur
1.33
IA Akranes
1.33
Leiknir R.
1.04
Stjarnan is 0.04 goals better than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.11
KR Reykjavik
1.48
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.52
Valur Reykjavik
1.63
FH hafnarfjordur
1.70
Keflavik
1.78
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
Stjarnan
1.93
Fram Reykjavik
2.33
IA Akranes
2.33
Leiknir R.
2.44
Stjarnan is 0.07 goals worse than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.86
0.00
0.67
1.75
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.20
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
0.57
1.33
0.33
1.25
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.33
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.71
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
Stjarnan's squad is €1m more valuable than IBV Vestmannaeyjar's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
Stjarnan and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
Stjarnan and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
LR (9)
€0m
Stjarnan and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →