Stjarnan are the clear favorites, with a 50% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and 22% for IBV Vestmannaeyjar to win. The model picks a home win and expects an average of 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Stjarnan, playing at home against a weaker opponent, normally score 2.4 goals and concede only 0.8, while IBV Vestmannaeyjar, on the road against a stronger side, averages 3.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (96.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.2%), Home +2 handicap (92.1%) and Under 4.5 (89.9%). Stjarnan’s recent form shows a 2-game winning streak, while IBV Vestmannaeyjar has suffered three consecutive defeats.
Results analysis
Stjarnan’s recent form, now on a two-game winning run, proved decisive as the team secured a 3-2 victory over IBV Vestmannaeyjar. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win, with a 50% probability, and it was right. The final score of 3-2 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s call. Every suggested pick settled, with the majority hitting: Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (96.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.2%) and Home +2 handicap (92.1%). Only Under 4.5 (89.9%) missed, as the match produced more than 4.5 goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stjarnan win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.67
2.57
1.14
1.56
2.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.86
1.73
2.67
1.33
1.31
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.50
1.50
2.40
0.80
2.67
2.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.60
2.50
1.14
1.94
2.00
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
3.33
2.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
2.15
1.41
2.54
1.08
1.79
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.1%
Under 2.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
12.0%
2-0
10.0%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.0%
Stjarnan goals ↓
IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
6.9%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.2%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.0%
4.7%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Breidablik
2.29
Thor Akureyri
2.17
Valur Reykjavik
2.17
Grindavik
2.00
KA Akureyri
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
IR Reykjavik
1.80
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.80
FH hafnarfjordur
1.80
Fjolnir
1.60
Keflavik
1.60
IA Akranes
1.57
Afturelding
1.40
Throttur Reykjavik
1.40
Selfoss
1.35
Fylkir
1.20
Völsungur
1.09
Leiknir R.
1.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Stjarnan
0.60
Njardvik
0.40
Vestri
0.40
Stjarnan is 0.20 points worse than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valur Reykjavik
3.33
Afturelding
3.20
Breidablik
2.86
Thor Akureyri
2.83
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.80
KR Reykjavik
2.60
IA Akranes
2.43
IR Reykjavik
2.40
Leiknir R.
2.40
Keflavik
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.20
Selfoss
1.93
Fylkir
1.80
Fjolnir
1.80
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
FH hafnarfjordur
1.60
Fram Reykjavik
1.60
Völsungur
1.55
HK Kopavogur
1.40
Throttur Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
Stjarnan
0.80
Vestri
0.60
Stjarnan is 1.00 goals worse than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Thor Akureyri
0.67
Breidablik
0.71
KA Akureyri
1.20
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.20
Valur Reykjavik
1.33
IA Akranes
1.57
Fylkir
1.60
Fjolnir
1.60
FH hafnarfjordur
1.60
Vestri
1.60
Throttur Reykjavik
1.80
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
KR Reykjavik
1.80
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.01
Leiknir R.
2.20
Keflavik
2.20
Stjarnan
2.20
Völsungur
2.50
IR Reykjavik
2.80
Njardvik
2.80
Afturelding
2.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
3.40
Stjarnan is 1.20 goals better than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 3.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stjarnan or Draw✓ Hit
78.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Stjarnan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan or IBV Vestmannaeyjar✓ Hit
71.6%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Stjarnan + IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar✗ Miss
50.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Draw + IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.0%
Under
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.5%
Under
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stjarnan, so a minus line means Stjarnan give that many goals of a start and IBV Vestmannaeyjar receive them. At -1, Stjarnan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stjarnan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stjarnan)Actual: IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Stjarnan -2
10.5%
Draw -2
15.5%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar +2
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Draw
Stjarnan -1
26.0%
Draw -1
23.6%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar +1
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan
Stjarnan +1
78.1%
Draw +1
14.0%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar -1
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan
Stjarnan +2
92.1%
Draw +2
5.8%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.93
0.50
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.59
1.00
0.44
0.38
0.69
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
1.00
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.29
0.36
1.06
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.04
0.70
1.23
0.31
0.86
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.97
1.64
0.64
1.06
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.14
1.67
0.89
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.50
1.60
0.20
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.83
1.21
0.79
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (27)
1.11
0.70
1.31
0.77
0.93
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
Stjarnan's squad is €1m more valuable than IBV Vestmannaeyjar's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Stjarnan and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Stjarnan and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Stjarnan and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →