Stjarnan vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Result & Analysis

Stjarnan are tipped to win, with a 59% chance of triumph, a 23% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of an IBV Vestmannaeyjar victory. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals, a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, carrying an 11.1% chance.

Stjarnan, playing at home against a weaker side, have averaged 2.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while IBV, on the road against a stronger opponent, have averaged 2.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Stjarnan’s recent run of five matches - WWLWW - has them on a two-game winning streak after a 2-0 win over Breidablik, whereas IBV’s last five - LLLDL - show a slump following a 0-1 loss to Thor Akureyri.

The model’s selection for this fixture is Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.2% probability. This single pick stands apart from the match outcome probabilities, and no edge percentage is attached.

Stjarnan’s 2-game winning streak at home was halted by IBV Vestmannaeyjar’s 3-game slide, as the match finished 2-3 in favour of the visitors. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 59% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.2% chance, and it hit as the match produced five goals. The final score of 2-3 matched the actual result of an Away win, confirming the upset. The game’s total goals exceeded the expected 2.9, and the most likely score of 2-1 was missed. The model’s predictions were mixed, with the favourite failing and the single other pick succeeding.