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Stjarnan vs Keflavik Result & Analysis

Date: 03/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 3-0
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Vs
62%
21%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stjarnan win✓ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Keflavik win✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L50W20W11D40W11D20W40W31W12LA·VIK24/06H·FH 29/06H·VAL17/07A·HK 23/07H·FRA26/07A·BRE29/07A·IBV05/08A·FYL14/08H·KR 21/08A·KA 26/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.472.361.291.061.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.201.601.671.220.821.91
vs Weaker (10)2.601.203.601.401.601.00
Clean sheet %27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L33D11D34L23L13L11D12L00DH·FYL23/06A·KR 28/06H·VIK08/07A·IBV16/07H·KA 24/07H·FH 31/07A·HK 09/08H·VAL13/08A·BRE20/08H·FRA27/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.831.311.811.861.86
vs Stronger (5)1.002.401.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (24)1.461.751.381.771.551.73
vs Weaker (1)7.001.00--7.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.6%
Under 1.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.7%
Under 2.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.2%
Under 3.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.0%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
7.4%
3-0 ✓
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
1-2
4.9%
Stjarnan goals ↓
Keflavik goals →
01234
03.7%2.7%2.1%0.8%0.3%
16.0%9.0%4.9%2.0%0.6%
27.9%9.5%5.8%2.3%0.7%
36.2%7.4%4.5%1.8%0.5%
43.6%4.3%2.6%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = Keflavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Valur Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.70
Breidablik
1.52
KA Akureyri
1.52
FH hafnarfjordur
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.37
Fylkir
1.07
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
HK Kopavogur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.93
Keflavik
0.59
Stjarnan is 1.11 points better than Keflavik in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 0.59).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.81
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Stjarnan
2.04
Breidablik
1.93
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Fylkir
1.59
KA Akureyri
1.56
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.41
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.15
Keflavik
1.00
Stjarnan is 1.04 goals better than Keflavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.04 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stjarnan
1.07
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
KA Akureyri
1.67
KR Reykjavik
1.78
Breidablik
1.81
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
Keflavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Fylkir
2.04
HK Kopavogur
2.04
Fram Reykjavik
2.07
Stjarnan is 0.93 goals better than Keflavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StjarnanStjarnan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L30W10W01L10W00D00D20W21W11DA·VIK24/06H·FH 29/06H·VAL17/07A·HK 23/07H·FRA26/07A·BRE29/07A·IBV05/08A·FYL14/08H·KR 21/08A·KA 26/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.930.640.250.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.300.750.560.560.090.91
vs Weaker (10)1.100.701.600.800.600.60
Clean sheet %50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L22D01L12L02L10W00D11D00DH·FYL23/06A·KR 28/06H·VIK08/07A·IBV16/07H·KA 24/07H·FH 31/07A·HK 09/08H·VAL13/08A·BRE20/08H·FRA27/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.830.500.810.640.86
vs Stronger (5)0.601.400.671.670.501.00
vs Similar (24)0.460.750.460.620.450.91
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

StjarnanStjarnan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W10W30W11D20W20W10W01LA·VIK24/06H·FH 29/06H·VAL17/07A·HK 23/07H·FRA26/07A·BRE29/07A·IBV05/08A·FYL14/08H·KR 21/08A·KA 26/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.731.430.640.810.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.900.851.110.670.731.00
vs Weaker (10)1.500.502.000.601.000.40
Clean sheet %43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L11D10W22D21W03L11D01L00DH·FYL23/06A·KR 28/06H·VIK08/07A·IBV16/07H·KA 24/07H·FH 31/07A·HK 09/08H·VAL13/08A·BRE20/08H·FRA27/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.000.811.001.211.00
vs Stronger (5)0.401.000.330.330.502.00
vs Similar (24)1.001.000.921.151.090.82
vs Weaker (1)4.001.00--4.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
Stjarnan's squad is €2m more valuable than Keflavik's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Stjarnan and Keflavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Stjarnan and Keflavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
Stjarnan and Keflavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
STJ wins
2
Draws
1
KEF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stjarnan vs Keflavik · H/A from STJ
DateH/AGameScore
11/06/23AKeflavik Vs STJ1-1
04/09/22HSTJ Vs Keflavik0-2
16/06/22AKeflavik Vs STJ2-2

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/23AKA Akureyri Vs STJ2-1
21/08/23HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik3-1
14/08/23AFylkir Vs STJ0-4
05/08/23AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs STJ0-2
29/07/23ABreidablik Vs STJ1-1
26/07/23HSTJ Vs Fram Reykjavik4-0
23/07/23AHK Kopavogur Vs STJ1-1
17/07/23HSTJ Vs Valur Reykjavik2-0
29/06/23HSTJ Vs FH hafnarfjordur5-0
24/06/23AVikingur Reykjavik Vs STJ2-0

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/23HKEF Vs Fram Reykjavik0-0
20/08/23ABreidablik Vs KEF2-1
13/08/23HKEF Vs Valur Reykjavik1-1
09/08/23AHK Kopavogur Vs KEF3-1
31/07/23HKEF Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-3
24/07/23HKEF Vs KA Akureyri3-4
16/07/23AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs KEF1-1
08/07/23HKEF Vs Vikingur Reykjavik3-3
28/06/23AKR Reykjavik Vs KEF2-0
23/06/23HKEF Vs Fylkir1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL1.42
HomeWWWWW1.78
AwayDDWWL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%52%28%
AVG goals3.403.523.28
Over 1.5 %92%91%92%
Over 2.5 %62%65%60%
Over 3.5 %42%48%36%
Scored1.792.091.52
Conceded1.601.431.76
BTTS52%48%56%
Clean Sheet27%30%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD1.02
HomeDLLDD0.96
AwayLLDLL1.09
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%20%30%
AVG goals3.403.203.61
Over 1.5 %83%80%87%
Over 2.5 %65%60%70%
Over 3.5 %44%48%39%
Scored1.581.481.70
Conceded1.811.721.91
BTTS62%60%65%
Clean Sheet21%20%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2766
78%
2.4
7630+46
3.9
93%
78%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.81.1
-
2Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2755
63%
2.0
6635+31
3.7
89%
70%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.41.3
-
3StjarnanStjarnan2746
52%
1.7
5529+26
3.1
93%
52%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.01.1
-
4BreidablikBreidablik2741
44%
1.5
5249+3
3.7
85%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.8
-
5KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2741
44%
1.5
4245-3
3.2
85%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.7
-
6FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2740
44%
1.5
4954-5
3.8
93%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.82.0
-
7KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2737
37%
1.4
3848-10
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.8
-
8FylkirFylkir2729
26%
1.1
4355-12
3.6
89%
70%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.0
-
9HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2727
22%
1.0
4155-14
3.6
81%
59%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.0
-
10Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2727
26%
1.0
4056-16
3.6
81%
70%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.52.1
-
11IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar2725
22%
0.9
3150-19
3.0
85%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.9
-
12KeflavikKeflavik2716
7%
0.6
2754-27
3.0
85%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.02.0
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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