Stjarnan is the clear favourite to win at home against Keflavik, with a 71% chance of success. The model's high rating is due in part to Keflavik's struggles on the road, where they have averaged 2.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded against similar-strength opponents. Stjarnan has been strong at home, scoring an average of 2.11 goals and conceding 1.89.
The model predicts a closely contested match, with a 4.3 expected total goals. The most likely score is 2-1 in favour of Stjarnan, with a 8.1% probability. Keflavik's away form suggests they may struggle to contain Stjarnan's attack, but they have shown resilience in their recent wins.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 (93.1%), Over 2.5 (79.7%), and Home win (70.6%). The home win percentage is 71%, the draw percentage is 16%, and the away win percentage is 13%.
Results analysis
The win extends Stjarnan's run to three games, as they edged out Keflavik 1-0. The actual result was a home win, which was in line with the model's prediction. The model correctly called Stjarnan the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 71%. The model's selection, Home win, was also correct. However, the model's predictions on the total goals were way off, as the final score was 1-0, well below the expected total of 4.3 goals. The model suggested Over 1.5, with a probability of 93.1%, but this selection missed, as did Over 2.5, with a probability of 79.7%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stjarnan win✓ Hit
70.6%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.80
Edge
+20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Dafabet
1.85
Betano
1.83
888Sport
1.83
Draw✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.09
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.45
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
Keflavik win✗ Miss
13.3%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.35
Edge
-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.64
Marathonbet
3.52
1xBet
3.51
Bet365
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.90
2.40
1.73
1.67
2.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
2.00
2.22
2.20
2.20
1.85
2.23
vs Weaker (7)
2.14
0.86
2.80
0.80
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keflavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.87
3.07
1.47
1.73
2.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
-
-
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (25)
2.32
1.84
2.77
1.46
1.83
2.25
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
1.00
5.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
93.1%
@ 1.05+4.9%
Under 1.5
6.9%
@ 7.84-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Under
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.30
Bet365
7.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
79.7%
@ 1.24+6.1%
Under 2.5
20.3%
@ 3.48-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.74
10Bet
3.70
888Sport
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.5%
@ 1.66+5.8%
Under 3.5
38.5%
@ 2.09-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.5%
@ 1.28-2.5%
No
30.5%
@ 3.28+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
No
1xBet
3.48
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
888Sport
3.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.1%@ 8.93+2.9%
3-1
8.0%@ 11.28+3.9%
2-0
6.2%@ 13.92+2.9%
3-0
6.1%@ 17.92+3.6%
1-1
6.0%@ 9.83+1.3%
4-1
5.9%@ 18.47+3.4%
2-2
5.2%@ 9.85+0.6%
3-2
5.2%@ 12.88+1.6%
Stjarnan goals ↓
Keflavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.0%
1.3%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
1
3.7%
6.0%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
2
6.2%
8.1%
5.2%
2.3%
0.7%
3
6.1%
8.0%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
4
4.5%
5.9%
3.8%
1.7%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = Keflavik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
Stjarnan is 0.27 points better than Keflavik in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
Stjarnan is 0.05 goals better than Keflavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
Stjarnan is 0.98 goals worse than Keflavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.43 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.13
0.93
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.87
1.10
1.00
0.85
0.77
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.20
0.80
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keflavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.93
1.27
0.73
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.00
1.00
1.23
0.77
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.10
1.27
0.80
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
1.35
1.10
1.20
1.00
1.46
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.29
1.60
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keflavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.93
1.80
0.73
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
-
-
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.32
0.84
1.54
0.69
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
3.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
93.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
79.7%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
+6.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
Stjarnan's squad is €2m more valuable than Keflavik's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Stjarnan and Keflavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
Stjarnan and Keflavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
Stjarnan and Keflavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
Vikingur Reykjavik
IA Akranes
Thor Akureyri
Breidablik
KA Akureyri
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar