Stjarnan’s recent victory over Thor Akureyri and KR Reykjavik’s unbeaten streak of five games suggest a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.7 goals. The most likely total is three, but the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.2 % chance. Home form shows Stjarnan scoring 2.82 goals and conceding 1.64 against similar opposition, while KR Reykjavik, playing away, averages 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded. The model favours a home win, with a 52 % chance, a draw at 22 %, and an away win at 26 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 96.7 %, Under 6.5 at 92.2 %, Over 1.5 at 88.8 %, Under 5.5 at 83.6 %, and Home under 3.5 goals at 82.9 %. The model also lists Home over 0.5 goals at 88.4 % (miss), Home +2 handicap at 87.8 % (miss), and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.4 % (miss).
Results analysis
Stjarnan’s recent win over Thor Akureyri had the home side looking sharp, yet the League Cup clash ended in a 0-4 away victory for KR Reykjavik, a shock that left the model’s pre-match favourite - Home win at 52 % probability - wrong. The model’s call was incorrect. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 7.5 (96.7 %) hit, Under 6.5 (92.2 %) hit, Over 1.5 (88.8 %) hit, Under 5.5 (83.6 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (82.9 %) hit; Away under 3.5 goals (93.4 %) missed, Home over 0.5 goals (88.4 %) missed, Home +2 handicap (87.8 %) missed. The match delivered a total of four goals, well below the model’s expected 3.7 and most likely 3-goal outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stjarnan win✗ Miss
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik win✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.73
2.73
1.60
2.00
1.87
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
2.33
2.00
2.50
4.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
2.43
1.74
2.82
1.64
2.08
1.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
3.00
0.50
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
2.17
2.56
2.00
1.79
2.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
3.67
0.00
7.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.33
2.12
2.79
1.71
1.70
2.70
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.7%
Under 2.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.7%
Under 3.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.6%
No
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
6.3%
2-0
6.0%
3-2
4.9%
1-0
4.7%
Stjarnan goals ↓
KR Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
3.1%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
1
4.7%
9.2%
6.3%
3.2%
1.2%
2
6.0%
9.0%
6.8%
3.4%
1.3%
3
4.3%
6.5%
4.9%
2.4%
0.9%
4
2.3%
3.5%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = KR Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
Stjarnan is 1.10 points worse than KR Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
Stjarnan is 1.27 goals worse than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 3.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
Stjarnan is 0.67 goals worse than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stjarnan or Draw✗ Miss
74.0%
Avg Implied -
52%
22%
26%
covers Stjarnan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan or KR Reykjavik✓ Hit
77.6%
Avg Implied -
52%
22%
26%
covers Stjarnan + KR Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or KR Reykjavik✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
22%
26%
covers Draw + KR Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
88.4%
Under
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stjarnan, so a minus line means Stjarnan give that many goals of a start and KR Reykjavik receive them. At -1, Stjarnan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stjarnan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stjarnan)Actual: KR Reykjavik
Stjarnan -2
15.8%
Draw -2
15.7%
KR Reykjavik +2
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stjarnan)Actual: KR Reykjavik
Stjarnan -1
31.5%
Draw -1
20.1%
KR Reykjavik +1
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stjarnan)Actual: KR Reykjavik
Stjarnan +1
74.0%
Draw +1
13.8%
KR Reykjavik -1
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stjarnan)Actual: KR Reykjavik
Stjarnan +2
87.8%
Draw +2
7.7%
KR Reykjavik -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.57
1.27
0.80
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.57
1.27
0.73
0.83
0.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
2.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.00
0.94
1.06
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.92
1.07
0.86
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.17
1.47
0.80
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.17
1.55
0.91
1.25
1.42
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.17
1.62
0.94
0.86
1.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.21
1.71
0.86
0.90
1.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →