This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Selfoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.97
1.93
1.80
1.20
2.13
vs Stronger (2)
5.50
0.50
5.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.38
2.00
1.36
2.00
1.38
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
2.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.6%
Under 2.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.6%
Under 3.5
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
10.2%
2-1 ✓
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.2%
Stjarnan goals ↓
Selfoss goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.3%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.0%
8.6%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.6%
3.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = Selfoss goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fram Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.40
Kári
2.25
Keflavik
2.25
Thor Akureyri
2.25
Vestri
2.20
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
KFR
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Haukar
2.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Stjarnan
1.75
Völsungur
1.67
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Leiknir R.
1.50
Fjolnir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
KA Akureyri
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
RB
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Höttur / Huginn
1.50
Smári
1.50
BF 108
1.50
Kría
1.50
Hafnir
1.50
ÍH
1.50
Augnablik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.50
Árbær
1.50
Sindri
1.50
Ellidi
1.50
KR Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.50
Throttur Reykjavik
1.33
Úlfarnir
1.33
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
1.33
Reynir Hellissandur
1.10
KB
1.10
Ægir
1.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
1.00
Magni
0.50
KV
0.50
Dalvík / Reynir
0.00
Álftanes
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
KFG
0.00
SR
0.00
Vængir Júpiters
0.00
Hamar
0.00
KFS
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Léttir
0.00
KF
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Ýmir
0.00
KH
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
Stjarnan is 0.25 points worse than Selfoss in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
6.50
Kári
5.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
4.67
Njardvik
4.00
BF 108
4.00
HK Kopavogur
3.50
Fylkir
3.50
Keflavik
3.50
Stjarnan
3.50
Thor Akureyri
3.50
Throttur Reykjavik
3.33
Selfoss
3.33
IR Reykjavik
3.00
Grindavik
3.00
KA Akureyri
3.00
Álafoss
3.00
Tindastóll
3.00
ÍH
3.00
KF
3.00
Hvíti riddarinn
3.00
Ellidi
3.00
Ýmir
3.00
Breidablik
3.00
Leiknir R.
2.50
Smári
2.50
Spyrnir
2.50
Árbær
2.50
Völsungur
2.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.33
Fjolnir
2.00
Dalvík / Reynir
2.00
IA Akranes
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Ægir
2.00
RB
2.00
KFG
2.00
SR
2.00
KFR
2.00
Hafnir
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
2.00
Augnablik
2.00
Haukar
2.00
Reynir Hellissandur
1.97
KB
1.97
Valur Reykjavik
1.80
Úlfarnir
1.67
Vestri
1.60
Grotta
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
Reynir
1.50
KV
1.50
Fram Reykjavik
1.50
Vængir Júpiters
1.00
Kría
1.00
Hamar
1.00
KFS
1.00
Léttir
1.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
1.00
Magni
1.00
Sindri
1.00
Thorlákur
1.00
KH
1.00
Höttur / Huginn
0.50
Álftanes
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
Stjarnan is 0.17 goals better than Selfoss in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 3.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Afturelding
0.33
Leiknir R.
0.50
Sindri
0.50
Fram Reykjavik
0.50
Vestri
0.80
Valur Reykjavik
0.80
IA Akranes
1.00
Vídir
1.00
Skallagrímur
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
1.00
Breidablik
1.00
Throttur Reykjavik
1.33
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Keflavik
1.50
Njardvik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
KFR
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Haukar
1.67
Völsungur
1.67
Ægir
2.00
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.00
Vængir Júpiters
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
2.00
Léttir
2.00
Hvíti riddarinn
2.00
Ellidi
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Einherji
2.00
Kári
2.25
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.33
Fjolnir
2.50
Grotta
2.50
Höttur / Huginn
2.50
Smári
2.50
BF 108
2.50
Augnablik
2.50
Reynir Hellissandur
2.65
KB
2.65
Úlfarnir
2.67
Stjarnan
2.75
Álftanes
3.00
KFG
3.00
SR
3.00
Kría
3.00
Hamar
3.00
ÍH
3.00
Stokkseyri
3.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
RB
3.50
Reynir
3.50
Dalvík / Reynir
4.00
Álafoss
4.00
Árborg
4.00
Thorlákur
4.00
Ýmir
4.00
KH
4.00
KV
4.00
Fálkar
4.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
4.33
Magni
4.50
Árbær
4.50
Hafnir
5.00
KF
5.00
Neisti D.
5.00
ÍBU
6.00
Thróttur Vogar
6.00
KFS
7.00
Afríka
8.00
Stjarnan is 0.75 goals worse than Selfoss in terms of goals conceded per game (2.75 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stjarnan or Draw✓ Hit
71.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Stjarnan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan or Selfoss✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Stjarnan + Selfoss
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Selfoss✗ Miss
58.7%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Draw + Selfoss
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stjarnan, so a minus line means Stjarnan give that many goals of a start and Selfoss receive them. At -1, Stjarnan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stjarnan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stjarnan)Actual: Selfoss
Stjarnan -2
7.1%
Draw -2
12.6%
Selfoss +2
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Draw
Stjarnan -1
19.7%
Draw -1
21.6%
Selfoss +1
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan
Stjarnan +1
71.1%
Draw +1
17.2%
Selfoss -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan
Stjarnan +2
88.3%
Draw +2
8.2%
Selfoss -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.67
1.19
1.00
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.73
1.18
1.09
1.00
0.36
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.50
1.20
0.80
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Selfoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.07
0.80
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
0.00
3.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.04
0.73
1.09
0.92
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.10
1.38
0.88
1.07
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.27
1.27
1.27
1.36
1.27
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.62
1.60
0.00
0.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Selfoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.87
1.00
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.96
0.64
0.91
0.46
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
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Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →