Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri Result & Analysis

Date: 23/08/2026

Time: 17:00

Final 4-2

Stjarnan

71%

17%

12%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Thor Akureyri

Iceland: Úrvalsdeild

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Stjarnan is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 71% chance of victory, largely due to their home advantage and the fact that Thor Akureyri tend to struggle away from home. The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome, with a probability of 71%.

The expected total goals is 3.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 9.1%.

Stjarnan have a strong home record, averaging 2.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded against similar opponents. In contrast, Thor Akureyri have struggled away from home, averaging 1.83 goals scored and conceded against similar opponents.

The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 71.3%. However, the model also suggests an Over 2.5 goals selection, with a probability of 71.7%. Additionally, the Over 1.5 goals selection is also suggested, with a probability of 89.2%.

The probabilities for each outcome are as follows: home win 71%, draw 17%, and away win 12%.

Results analysis

Stjarnan’s recent win extended their good run, and the model’s favourite - a home win - proved correct as the final score read 4-2. The pre-match probability for a home victory was 71 %. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.8 %, Under 7.5 hit at 96.5 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 95.7 %, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 93.0 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 93.0 %. Only Home under 2.5 HT goals missed. All figures are reported once and in the model’s own terms.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stjarnan win✓ Hit

70.9%

Avg Implied 64.2% · @ 1.41

Edge

+6.7%

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.47

Dafabet

1.46

Superbet

1.45

1xBet

1.43

Unibet

1.43

Draw✗ Miss

17.2%

Avg Implied 18.6% · @ 4.88

Edge

-1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

5.50

Dafabet

5.20

Marathonbet

5.15

1xBet

5.15

Betfair

5.00

Thor Akureyri win✗ Miss

11.9%

Avg Implied 17.3% · @ 5.25

Edge

-5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

5.82

1xBet

5.57

Marathonbet

5.55

Betfair

5.50

Dafabet

5.40

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Stjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.9

Avg scored

1.3

Avg conceded

2.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.87	1.93	2.20	1.60	1.53	2.27
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (23)	1.78	2.26	1.90	2.00	1.69	2.46
vs Weaker (7)	2.14	0.86	2.80	0.80	0.50	1.00
Clean sheet %	10% (-10pp vs league)

This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Thor Akureyri

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.4

Avg scored

1.6

Avg conceded

1.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.17	1.33	2.40	1.07	1.93	1.60
vs Stronger (1)	2.00	1.00	2.00	1.00	-	-
vs Similar (24)	1.71	1.46	1.73	1.27	1.69	1.62
vs Weaker (5)	4.40	0.80	5.00	0.33	3.50	1.50
Clean sheet %	30% (+10pp vs league)

This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

89.1%

@ 1.05+1.9%

Under 1.5

10.9%

@ 7.19-1.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.08

Bet365

1.07

Superbet

1.06

Betfair

1.06

888Sport

1.06

Under

Betfair

9.00

888Sport

8.50

Bet365

7.50

Superbet

7.40

1xBet

7.20

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

71.5%

@ 1.24-2.3%

Under 2.5

28.5%

@ 3.50+2.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.28

Bet365

1.28

Pinnacle

1.27

Superbet

1.26

Marathonbet

1.23

Under

Betfair

4.00

888Sport

3.75

Pinnacle

3.71

Bet365

3.50

Superbet

3.50

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

50.7%

@ 1.66-4.9%

Under 3.5

49.3%

@ 2.08+4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.73

1xBet

1.70

Betano

1.70

Marathonbet

1.70

Superbet

1.67

Under

Betfair

2.25

888Sport

2.15

Pinnacle

2.13

Bet365

2.10

1xBet

2.09

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

61.1%

@ 1.37-5.8%

38.9%

@ 2.77+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

William Hil

1.40

Superbet

1.40

Bet365

1.40

Betano

1.40

1xBet

1.38

Betfair

3.00

888Sport

2.90

1xBet

2.81

William Hil

2.80

Marathonbet

2.76

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

2-1

9.1%@ 8.43+3.7%

2-0

8.7%@ 11.18+4.6%

3-1

8.1%@ 9.60+3.3%

3-0

7.7%@ 12.39+4.0%

1-1

7.5%@ 10.85+3.3%

1-0

5.9%@ 14.22+2.6%

4-1

5.4%@ 13.82+2.0%

4-0

5.1%@ 18.36+2.6%

Stjarnan goals ↓

	Thor Akureyri goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	1.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%
1	5.9%	7.5%	3.6%	1.3%	0.3%
2	8.7%	9.1%	4.8%	1.7%	0.4%
3	7.7%	8.1%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%
4	5.1%	5.4%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = Thor Akureyri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

KR Reykjavik

2.14

Fram Reykjavik

2.00

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.71

Stjarnan

1.71

FH hafnarfjordur

1.62

IA Akranes

1.50

Keflavik

1.44

Thor Akureyri

1.25

Breidablik

1.00

KA Akureyri

0.88

Valur Reykjavik

0.71

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

0.25

Stjarnan is 0.46 points better than Thor Akureyri in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

KR Reykjavik

3.57

Fram Reykjavik

2.56

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.43

IA Akranes

2.38

Valur Reykjavik

1.86

KA Akureyri

1.75

Stjarnan

1.71

Keflavik

1.67

Breidablik

1.25

FH hafnarfjordur

1.12

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.00

Thor Akureyri

0.88

Stjarnan is 0.84 goals better than Thor Akureyri in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 0.88).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

FH hafnarfjordur

0.88

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.43

Keflavik

1.44

KR Reykjavik

1.71

Breidablik

1.75

Fram Reykjavik

1.78

Thor Akureyri

1.88

IA Akranes

1.88

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.12

KA Akureyri

2.38

Valur Reykjavik

2.43

Stjarnan

2.43

Stjarnan is 0.55 goals worse than Thor Akureyri in terms of goals conceded per game (2.43 vs 1.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Stjarnan or Draw✓ Hit

88.1%

Avg Implied 82.6% · @ 1.12

Edge

+5.5%

71%

17%

12%

covers Stjarnan + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.15

William Hil

1.15

888Sport

1.14

BetVictor

1.14

Superbet

1.13

Stjarnan or Thor Akureyri✓ Hit

82.8%

Avg Implied 82.0% · @ 1.13

Edge

+0.8%

71%

17%

12%

covers Stjarnan + Thor Akureyri

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.17

888Sport

1.17

Betano

1.16

Superbet

1.14

Marathonbet

1.13

Draw or Thor Akureyri✗ Miss

29.1%

Avg Implied 35.5% · @ 2.61

Edge

-6.4%

71%

17%

12%

covers Draw + Thor Akureyri

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

2.80

1xBet

2.68

Marathonbet

2.68

Betano

2.67

888Sport

2.63

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Stjarnan over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

93.0%

@ 1.04+2.7%

Under

7.0%

@ 9.70-2.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.06

Bet365

1.05

888Sport

1.04

Betfair

1.03

1xBet

1.02

Under

888Sport

11.00

1xBet

11.00

Betfair

10.00

Bet365

8.50

Betano

8.00

Stjarnan over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

74.3%

@ 1.26+1.4%

Under

25.7%

@ 3.40-1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.30

1xBet

1.30

Bet365

1.28

Superbet

1.27

Marathonbet

1.26

Under

Pinnacle

3.78

Betfair

3.75

888Sport

3.50

Bet365

3.50

Superbet

3.40

Stjarnan over/under 2.5Actual: Over

Over

49.6%

@ 1.83-0.5%

Under

50.4%

@ 1.84+0.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.97

Betano

1.90

Marathonbet

1.88

1xBet

1.85

Superbet

1.85

Under

Betfair

2.00

Marathonbet

1.86

1xBet

1.85

888Sport

1.85

Superbet

1.85

Stjarnan over/under 3.5Actual: Over

Over

27.6%

@ 3.12-1.8%

Under

72.4%

@ 1.30+1.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

3.40

Pinnacle

3.31

Betano

3.20

Superbet

3.20

Marathonbet

3.14

Under

Betfair

1.33

888Sport

1.33

Betano

1.32

1xBet

1.32

Pinnacle

1.31

Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

64.9%

@ 1.30-5.7%

Under

35.1%

@ 3.13+5.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.35

Bet365

1.33

Betano

1.32

Pinnacle

1.32

Superbet

1.30

Under

888Sport

3.30

Superbet

3.25

Bet365

3.25

Betfair

3.25

Pinnacle

3.23

Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

28.2%

@ 2.42-9.8%

Under

71.8%

@ 1.48+9.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.60

Betfair

2.50

Bet365

2.50

Marathonbet

2.47

1xBet

2.47

Under

Betano

1.53

Superbet

1.51

888Sport

1.50

Bet365

1.50

Betfair

1.50

Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

8.9%

@ 5.27-8.5%

Under

91.1%

@ 1.11+8.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

6.00

Marathonbet

5.65

1xBet

5.50

888Sport

5.50

Bet365

5.50

Under

Betano

1.14

888Sport

1.13

Bet365

1.12

Superbet

1.12

Betfair

1.11

Thor Akureyri over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

2.2%

@ 11.75-5.8%

Under

97.8%

@ 1.03+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

888Sport

15.00

Bet365

10.50

Betano

9.75

Under

Betano

1.03

888Sport

1.03

Bet365

1.02

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Stjarnan, so a minus line means Stjarnan give that many goals of a start and Thor Akureyri receive them. At -1, Stjarnan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stjarnan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Stjarnan)Actual: Draw

Stjarnan -2

30.4%

@ 3.08+2.2%

Draw -2

20.1%

@ 4.34+0.0%

Thor Akureyri +2

49.4%

@ 1.69-2.2%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

3.25

Marathonbet

3.14

Bet365

3.10

Unibet

2.85

Draw

Bet365

4.75

Betfair

4.50

Marathonbet

4.45

Unibet

3.65

Away

Betfair

1.73

Bet365

1.73

Marathonbet

1.72

Unibet

1.58

Handicap -1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan

Stjarnan -1

50.6%

@ 1.94+5.7%

Draw -1

20.3%

@ 4.01-1.4%

Thor Akureyri +1

29.1%

@ 2.61-4.3%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Marathonbet

2.03

Bet365

1.95

Betfair

1.91

Unibet

1.87

Draw

Bet365

4.50

Betfair

4.20

Marathonbet

3.94

Unibet

3.40

Away

Betfair

2.80

Marathonbet

2.68

Bet365

2.60

Unibet

2.35

Handicap +1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan

Stjarnan +1

88.1%

@ 1.11+11.3%

Draw +1

7.6%

@ 6.40-5.7%

Thor Akureyri -1

4.3%

@ 8.65-5.6%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.11

Marathonbet

1.11

Draw

Bet365

8.00

Marathonbet

4.80

Away

Bet365

11.00

Marathonbet

6.30

Handicap +2 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan

Stjarnan +2

95.7%

@ 1.04+4.9%

Draw +2

3.1%

@ 17.00-2.4%

Thor Akureyri -2

1.2%

@ 26.00-2.5%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.04

Draw

Bet365

17.00

Away

Bet365

26.00

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Stjarnan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.9

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.87	0.80	0.93	0.80	0.80	0.80
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (23)	0.83	0.87	0.80	0.80	0.85	0.92
vs Weaker (7)	1.00	0.57	1.20	0.80	0.50	0.00
Clean sheet %	43% (+23pp vs league)

This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Thor Akureyri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.13	0.53	1.33	0.47	0.93	0.60
vs Stronger (1)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-
vs Similar (24)	0.71	0.58	0.73	0.64	0.69	0.54
vs Weaker (5)	3.40	0.40	4.00	0.00	2.50	1.00
Clean sheet %	57% (+36pp vs league)

This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

75.8%

@ 1.15-4.9%

Under 0.5

24.2%

@ 4.79+4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.19

Bet365

1.17

Superbet

1.15

William Hil

1.15

BetVictor

1.14

Under

Betfair

5.50

BetVictor

5.00

William Hil

4.80

Superbet

4.80

Marathonbet

4.75

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

40.1%

@ 1.77-12.5%

Under 1.5

59.9%

@ 1.96+12.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.85

Pinnacle

1.83

Bet365

1.80

Marathonbet

1.78

1xBet

1.78

Under

Betfair

2.10

Pinnacle

2.00

William Hil

2.00

Superbet

1.97

1xBet

1.95

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

15.9%

@ 3.38-11.5%

Under 2.5

84.1%

@ 1.27+11.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

3.60

Bet365

3.50

Betano

3.40

William Hil

3.40

1xBet

3.30

Under

Betfair

1.30

Superbet

1.29

William Hil

1.29

Bet365

1.28

Betano

1.27

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

63.1%

@ 1.38-4.4%

Under

36.9%

@ 2.86+4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.40

1xBet

1.35

Under

1xBet

3.00

Betano

2.72

Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over

Over

21.7%

@ 2.69-12.8%

Under

78.3%

@ 1.42+12.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.77

Pinnacle

2.77

Marathonbet

2.69

Superbet

2.62

1xBet

2.60

Under

1xBet

1.44

Pinnacle

1.44

Superbet

1.43

Marathonbet

1.41

Betano

1.39

Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over

Over

4.6%

@ 6.20-10.3%

Under

95.4%

@ 1.08+10.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

6.30

Betano

6.10

Under

Betano

1.09

1xBet

1.07

Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

34.0%

@ 2.12-9.9%

Under

66.0%

@ 1.66+9.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.26

Betano

2.12

Superbet

2.12

Marathonbet

2.06

1xBet

2.03

Under

1xBet

1.70

Marathonbet

1.66

Superbet

1.65

Betano

1.65

Pinnacle

1.62

Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

7.0%

@ 6.35-7.5%

Under

93.0%

@ 1.08+7.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

6.85

1xBet

6.30

Betano

5.90

Under

Betano

1.10

Marathonbet

1.07

1xBet

1.07

Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.7%

@ 11.00-7.7%

Under

99.3%

@ 1.01+7.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

11.00

Under

Betano

1.01

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Stjarnan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.0

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.00	1.13	1.27	0.80	0.73	1.47
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (23)	0.96	1.39	1.10	1.20	0.85	1.54
vs Weaker (7)	1.14	0.29	1.60	0.00	0.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	30% (+10pp vs league)

This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Thor Akureyri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.9

Avg scored

0.9

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.03	0.80	1.07	0.60	1.00	1.00
vs Stronger (1)	2.00	1.00	2.00	1.00	-	-
vs Similar (24)	1.00	0.88	1.00	0.64	1.00	1.08
vs Weaker (5)	1.00	0.40	1.00	0.33	1.00	0.50
Clean sheet %	50% (+30pp vs league)

This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

81.4%

@ 1.08-5.0%

Under 0.5

18.6%

@ 6.88+5.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.10

William Hil

1.10

Betano

1.09

1xBet

1.05

Under

1xBet

7.80

Bet365

7.00

William Hil

6.50

Betano

6.20

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

52.6%

@ 1.46-10.8%

Under 1.5

47.4%

@ 2.52+10.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.50

Marathonbet

1.46

1xBet

1.46

Superbet

1.45

William Hil

1.44

Under

Betano

2.60

Superbet

2.55

Marathonbet

2.50

William Hil

2.50

Bet365

2.50

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

23.4%

@ 2.39-15.3%

Under 2.5

76.6%

@ 1.51+15.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.50

Marathonbet

2.41

1xBet

2.41

William Hil

2.40

Superbet

2.37

Under

Betano

1.57

Superbet

1.52

William Hil

1.50

Bet365

1.50

1xBet

1.49

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

70.6%

@ 1.22-5.3%

Under

29.4%

@ 3.85+5.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.23

1xBet

1.21

Under

1xBet

4.00

Betano

3.70

Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

36.1%

@ 2.07-8.7%

Under

63.9%

@ 1.68+8.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.11

Superbet

2.10

Betano

2.05

1xBet

2.02

Under

1xBet

1.71

Betano

1.70

Superbet

1.66

Marathonbet

1.65

Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

10.4%

@ 4.08-12.2%

Under

89.6%

@ 1.19+12.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

4.10

Betano

4.05

Under

Betano

1.20

1xBet

1.18

Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

38.1%

@ 1.78-13.9%

Under

61.9%

@ 1.93+13.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

1.81

Superbet

1.80

Betano

1.75

1xBet

1.75

Under

1xBet

1.96

Betano

1.95

Superbet

1.92

Marathonbet

1.87

Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over

Over

9.8%

@ 4.77-9.7%

Under

90.2%

@ 1.15+9.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

5.15

1xBet

4.80

Betano

4.35

Under

Betano

1.18

1xBet

1.14

Marathonbet

1.13

Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

1.2%

@ 9.25-8.8%

Under

98.8%

@ 1.03+8.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

9.25

Under

Betano

1.03

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals	99.3%	1.01	Betano 1.01	-	-	-	-	+7.7%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	98.8%	1.03	Betano 1.03	-	-	-	-	+8.8%	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	97.8%	1.03	Betano 1.03	888Sport 1.03	Bet365 1.02	-	-	+5.8%	✓ Hit
Under 7.5	96.5%	1.03	Betano 1.04	1xBet 1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	+6.2%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	95.7%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.9%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	95.4%	1.08	Betano 1.09	1xBet 1.07	-	-	-	+10.3%	✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals	93.0%	1.04	Betano 1.06	Bet365 1.05	888Sport 1.04	Betfair 1.03	1xBet 1.02	+2.7%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	93.0%	1.08	Betano 1.10	Marathonbet 1.07	1xBet 1.07	-	-	+7.5%	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	91.8%	1.07	Betano 1.09	1xBet 1.08	Bet365 1.08	BetVictor 1.03	-	+6.7%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals	91.1%	1.11	Betano 1.14	888Sport 1.13	Bet365 1.12	Superbet 1.12	Betfair 1.11	+8.5%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	90.2%	1.15	Betano 1.18	1xBet 1.14	Marathonbet 1.13	-	-	+9.7%	✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals	89.6%	1.19	Betano 1.20	1xBet 1.18	-	-	-	+12.2%	✓ Hit
Over 1.5	89.1%	1.05	Betano 1.08	Bet365 1.07	Superbet 1.06	Betfair 1.06	888Sport 1.06	+1.9%	✓ Hit
Home or Draw	88.1%	1.12	Betano 1.15	William Hil 1.15	888Sport 1.14	BetVictor 1.14	Superbet 1.13	+5.5%	✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap	88.1%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	Marathonbet 1.11	-	-	-	+11.3%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	84.1%	1.27	Betfair 1.30	Superbet 1.29	William Hil 1.29	Bet365 1.28	Betano 1.27	+11.5%	✗ Miss
Under 5.5	83.0%	1.19	Betfair 1.22	888Sport 1.22	Betano 1.22	Pinnacle 1.22	Superbet 1.20	+6.2%	✗ Miss
Home or Away	82.8%	1.13	William Hil 1.17	888Sport 1.17	Betano 1.16	Superbet 1.14	Marathonbet 1.13	+0.8%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	81.4%	1.08	Bet365 1.10	William Hil 1.10	Betano 1.09	1xBet 1.05	-	-5.0%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	78.3%	1.42	1xBet 1.44	Pinnacle 1.44	Superbet 1.43	Marathonbet 1.41	Betano 1.39	+12.8%	✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals	76.6%	1.51	Betano 1.57	Superbet 1.52	William Hil 1.50	Bet365 1.50	1xBet 1.49	+15.3%	✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals	75.8%	1.15	Betano 1.19	Bet365 1.17	Superbet 1.15	William Hil 1.15	BetVictor 1.14	-4.9%	✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals	74.3%	1.26	Betano 1.30	1xBet 1.30	Bet365 1.28	Superbet 1.27	Marathonbet 1.26	+1.4%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	72.4%	1.30	Betfair 1.33	888Sport 1.33	Betano 1.32	1xBet 1.32	Pinnacle 1.31	+1.8%	✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals	71.8%	1.48	Betano 1.53	Superbet 1.51	888Sport 1.50	Bet365 1.50	Betfair 1.50	+9.8%	✗ Miss
Over 2.5	71.5%	1.24	Betano 1.28	Bet365 1.28	Pinnacle 1.27	Superbet 1.26	Marathonbet 1.23	-2.3%	✓ Hit
Home win	70.9%	1.41	Betano 1.47	Dafabet 1.46	Superbet 1.45	1xBet 1.43	Unibet 1.43	+6.7%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals	70.6%	1.22	Betano 1.23	1xBet 1.21	-	-	-	-5.3%	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

VR (26)

€5m

BRE (19)

€3m

VR (22)

€3m

STJ (22)

€3m

KR (18)

€3m

FR (19)

€2m

KA (22)

€2m

IA (19)

€2m

FH (21)

€2m

IV (18)

€2m

TA (21)

€2m

KEF (18)

€1m

Stjarnan's squad is €1m more valuable than Thor Akureyri's (€3m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

VR (12)

€3m

VR (7)

€1m

KR (9)

€1m

BRE (6)

€1m

STJ (4)

€1m

KA (9)

€1m

TA (7)

€1m

FR (6)

€1m

KEF (6)

€1m

IA (6)

€1m

FH (8)

€0m

IV (6)

€0m

Stjarnan and Thor Akureyri have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BRE (4)

€1m

VR (4)

€1m

STJ (6)

€1m

IV (6)

€1m

VR (5)

€1m

KR (2)

€1m

FR (4)

€1m

KA (5)

€0m

TA (4)

€0m

IA (3)

€0m

FH (2)

€0m

KEF (5)

€0m

Stjarnan and Thor Akureyri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

VR (10)

€2m

BRE (9)

€1m

STJ (12)

€1m

FR (9)

€1m

IA (10)

€1m

VR (10)

€1m

FH (11)

€1m

KR (7)

€1m

IV (6)

€1m

KA (8)

€1m

KEF (7)

€1m

TA (10)

€1m

Stjarnan and Thor Akureyri have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings

STJ wins

Draws

TA wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri · H/A from STJ

Date	H/A	Game	Score
12/06/24	A	Thor Akureyri Vs STJ	0-1
18/02/24	A	Thor Akureyri Vs STJ	5-1

Stjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
17/08/26	A	Fram Reykjavik Vs STJ	3-1
09/08/26	H	STJ Vs Keflavik	1-0
03/08/26	A	Valur Reykjavik Vs STJ	2-3
26/07/26	A	IA Akranes Vs STJ	5-1
19/07/26	A	KR Reykjavik Vs STJ	5-0
10/06/26	A	Afturelding Vs STJ	3-1
13/05/26	H	STJ Vs KR Reykjavik	2-1
05/04/26	H	STJ Vs Selfoss	2-1
17/03/26	H	STJ Vs Vestri	2-2
14/03/26	H	STJ Vs KR Reykjavik	0-4

Thor Akureyri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
15/08/26	H	TA Vs Keflavik	0-2
09/08/26	A	IA Akranes Vs TA	2-0
04/08/26	H	TA Vs Breidablik	1-0
27/07/26	A	KA Akureyri Vs TA	0-0
18/07/26	H	TA Vs Vikingur Reykjavik	2-1
12/07/26	A	Fram Reykjavik Vs TA	6-1
04/04/26	H	TA Vs FH hafnarfjordur	2-4
17/03/26	H	TA Vs Fylkir	0-2
10/03/26	H	TA Vs Valur Reykjavik	5-1
25/02/26	A	Afturelding Vs TA	0-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stjarnan

Iceland: Úrvalsdeild

Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWWL	1.62
Home	LDWWW	1.93
Away	LLLWL	1.26

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	48%	59%	35%
AVG goals	4.00	4.11	3.87
Over 1.5 %	94%	93%	96%
Over 2.5 %	82%	89%	74%
Over 3.5 %	60%	67%	52%
Scored	2.08	2.30	1.83
Conceded	1.92	1.81	2.04
BTTS	80%	81%	78%
Clean Sheet	12%	15%	9%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Thor Akureyri

Iceland: Úrvalsdeild

Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDWLL	1.80
Home	LLWWL	1.93
Away	DWLDL	1.64

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	54%	57%	50%
AVG goals	3.72	3.57	3.91
Over 1.5 %	92%	93%	91%
Over 2.5 %	66%	57%	77%
Over 3.5 %	50%	46%	55%
Scored	2.22	2.39	2.00
Conceded	1.50	1.18	1.91
BTTS	64%	64%	64%
Clean Sheet	24%	29%	18%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Fram Reykjavik	9	18	56%	2.0	23	16	+7	4.3	89%	78%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	1	1	2.6	1.8	-
2	KR Reykjavik	7	15	57%	2.1	25	12	+13	5.3	100%	71%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	3.6	1.7	-
3	Keflavik	9	13	44%	1.4	15	13	+2	3.1	78%	56%	22%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	1	0	1	1.7	1.4	-
4	FH hafnarfjordur	8	13	38%	1.6	9	7	+2	2.0	62%	25%	12%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	1	1.1	0.9	-
5	Vikingur Reykjavik	7	12	43%	1.7	17	10	+7	3.9	100%	71%	57%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	3	1	2	2.4	1.4	-
6	IA Akranes	8	12	38%	1.5	19	15	+4	4.2	100%	75%	75%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	2.4	1.9	-
7	Stjarnan	7	12	57%	1.7	12	17	-5	4.1	86%	71%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.7	2.4	-
8	Thor Akureyri	8	10	38%	1.2	7	15	-8	2.8	62%	38%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	0.9	1.9	-
9	Breidablik	8	8	25%	1.0	10	14	-4	3.0	62%	50%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.2	1.8	-
10	KA Akureyri	8	7	12%	0.9	14	19	-5	4.1	75%	75%	62%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	1.8	2.4	-
11	Valur Reykjavik	7	5	14%	0.7	13	17	-4	4.3	100%	71%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.9	2.4	-
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	8	2	0%	0.2	8	17	-9	3.1	62%	62%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	1	1	1.0	2.1	-

Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

← all matches

Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Stjarnan

Thor Akureyri

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Stjarnan

Thor Akureyri

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Stjarnan

Thor Akureyri

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Stjarnan

Thor Akureyri

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature