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Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2024
Time: 19:15
Final 1-0
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Vs
43%
24%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stjarnan win✓ Hit
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W31W20W15L11D03L11D11D02L13LH·KR 28/09H·VIK02/10A·BRE08/10A·THO18/02A·FJO22/02H·HK 29/02H·NJA05/03A·KR 08/03A·VIK06/04H·KR 12/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.172.430.931.191.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.481.292.440.780.751.67
vs Weaker (9)2.440.892.401.202.500.50
Clean sheet %33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-741W15L40W71W02L21W63W11D20W00DH·FH 01/10A·VIK07/10H·FYL04/02H·IBV10/02A·THR16/02H·FRA24/02A·IR 01/03H·IA 20/03H·IA 07/04A·FYL14/04
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.471.202.690.942.211.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)2.061.382.251.121.881.62
vs Weaker (14)2.931.003.120.752.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.0%
Under 2.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.1%
Under 3.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.4%
No
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
5.4%
1-0 ✓
5.2%
0-0
4.3%
Stjarnan goals ↓
Valur Reykjavik goals →
01234
04.3%4.3%4.1%2.1%0.8%
15.2%11%7.5%3.9%1.5%
25.6%8.8%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.4%5.4%4.2%2.2%0.9%
41.6%2.5%1.9%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = Valur Reykjavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Breidablik
2.30
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.19
Valur Reykjavik
1.63
Stjarnan
1.56
KA Akureyri
1.37
IA Akranes
1.37
FH hafnarfjordur
1.26
KR Reykjavik
1.26
Fram Reykjavik
1.11
HK Kopavogur
0.93
Vestri
0.93
Fylkir
0.78
Stjarnan is 0.07 points worse than Valur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.63).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.52
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Breidablik
2.33
KR Reykjavik
2.07
Stjarnan
1.89
IA Akranes
1.81
KA Akureyri
1.63
FH hafnarfjordur
1.59
Fram Reykjavik
1.41
HK Kopavogur
1.26
Fylkir
1.19
Vestri
1.19
Stjarnan is 0.56 goals worse than Valur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 2.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Breidablik
1.15
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.22
Valur Reykjavik
1.56
Stjarnan
1.59
IA Akranes
1.74
KA Akureyri
1.78
Fram Reykjavik
1.81
KR Reykjavik
1.81
FH hafnarfjordur
1.85
Vestri
1.96
Fylkir
2.22
HK Kopavogur
2.63
Stjarnan is 0.04 goals worse than Valur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StjarnanStjarnan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W10W01L10W20W00D01L01L11DH·KR 28/09H·VIK02/10A·BRE08/10A·THO18/02A·FJO22/02H·HK 29/02H·NJA05/03A·KR 08/03A·VIK06/04H·KR 12/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.431.290.290.440.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.710.571.330.440.250.67
vs Weaker (9)1.110.111.200.001.000.25
Clean sheet %63% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D10W31W01L00D22D00D10W00DH·FH 01/10A·VIK07/10H·FYL04/02H·IBV10/02A·THR16/02H·FRA24/02A·IR 01/03H·IA 20/03H·IA 07/04A·FYL14/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.401.120.380.930.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.000.311.120.380.880.25
vs Weaker (14)1.070.501.120.381.000.67
Clean sheet %67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

StjarnanStjarnan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D11D10W14L01L11D10W01L02LA·FH 24/09H·KR 28/09H·VIK02/10A·BRE08/10A·THO18/02A·FJO22/02H·NJA05/03A·KR 08/03A·VIK06/04H·KR 12/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.671.380.460.820.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.820.731.110.330.621.00
vs Weaker (8)1.750.502.000.751.500.25
Clean sheet %50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W04L30W40W01L21W41W11D10W00DH·FH 01/10A·VIK07/10H·FYL04/02H·IBV10/02A·THR16/02H·FRA24/02A·IR 01/03H·IA 20/03H·IA 07/04A·FYL14/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.801.560.561.291.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.061.061.120.751.001.38
vs Weaker (14)1.860.502.000.381.670.67
Clean sheet %47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
STJ wins
0
Draws
4
VR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik · H/A from STJ
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/23AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ2-0
17/07/23HSTJ Vs Valur Reykjavik2-0
29/04/23AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ3-2
16/10/22AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ3-0
14/08/22AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ6-1
15/05/22HSTJ Vs Valur Reykjavik1-0

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/24HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik1-3
06/04/24AVikingur Reykjavik Vs STJ2-0
08/03/24AKR Reykjavik Vs STJ1-1
05/03/24HSTJ Vs Njardvik1-1
29/02/24HSTJ Vs HK Kopavogur0-3
22/02/24AFjolnir Vs STJ1-1
18/02/24AThor Akureyri Vs STJ5-1
08/10/23ABreidablik Vs STJ0-2
02/10/23HSTJ Vs Vikingur Reykjavik3-1
28/09/23HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik2-0

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24AFylkir Vs VR0-0
07/04/24HVR Vs IA Akranes2-0
20/03/24HVR Vs IA Akranes1-1
01/03/24AIR Reykjavik Vs VR3-6
24/02/24HVR Vs Fram Reykjavik2-1
16/02/24AThrottur Reykjavik Vs VR2-0
10/02/24HVR Vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar7-1
04/02/24HVR Vs Fylkir4-0
07/10/23AVikingur Reykjavik Vs VR5-1
01/10/23HVR Vs FH hafnarfjordur4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.32
HomeWWLDL1.75
AwayWLDDL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%54%23%
AVG goals3.323.712.96
Over 1.5 %96%100%92%
Over 2.5 %62%75%50%
Over 3.5 %40%50%31%
Scored1.662.171.19
Conceded1.661.541.77
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.74
HomeWWWDW2.20
AwayDLLWD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%68%36%
AVG goals3.663.603.72
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %50%44%56%
Scored2.282.482.08
Conceded1.381.121.64
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BreidablikBreidablik2762
70%
2.3
6331+32
3.5
93%
70%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.31.1
-
2Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2759
67%
2.2
6833+35
3.7
89%
70%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.51.2
-
3Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2744
44%
1.6
6642+24
4.0
89%
74%
70%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.41.6
-
4StjarnanStjarnan2742
44%
1.6
5143+8
3.5
89%
67%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.6
-
5IA AkranesIA Akranes2737
41%
1.4
4947+2
3.6
85%
67%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.7
-
6KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2737
37%
1.4
4448-4
3.4
85%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.8
-
7KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2734
33%
1.3
5649+7
3.9
85%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.11.8
-
8FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2734
33%
1.3
4350-7
3.4
89%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.61.9
-
9Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2730
30%
1.1
3849-11
3.2
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.8
-
10VestriVestri2725
22%
0.9
3253-21
3.1
81%
59%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
11HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2725
26%
0.9
3471-37
3.9
93%
70%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.32.6
-
12FylkirFylkir2721
19%
0.8
3260-28
3.4
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.2
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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