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Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik Result & Analysis

Date: 14/06/2025
Time: 19:15
Final 3-2
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Vs
51%
22%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stjarnan win✓ Hit
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-633D12L23L03L20W63W22D13L42W11DH·NJA18/04A·BRE23/04H·IBV28/04A·AFT05/05H·FRA10/05A·KÁR14/05H·VIK19/05A·VES24/05H·KR 29/05A·KA 01/06
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.732.201.671.931.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)2.051.852.121.752.001.92
vs Weaker (10)2.101.502.291.571.671.33
Clean sheet %20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W31W11D03L61W21W12L30W20W21WA·GRI19/04H·KA 23/04H·VIK28/04A·FH 04/05H·IA 10/05H·THR14/05A·BRE19/05H·IBV24/05A·AFT29/05H·FRA02/06
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.571.373.061.121.921.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)2.821.413.401.202.001.71
vs Weaker (13)2.231.312.571.001.831.67
Clean sheet %13% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.9%
Under 1.5
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.8%
Under 2.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.8%
Under 3.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.7%
No
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
2-0
5.9%
3-2 ✓
4.9%
1-0
4.7%
Stjarnan goals ↓
Valur Reykjavik goals →
01234
03.4%3.0%2.9%1.5%0.6%
14.7%9.2%6.3%3.2%1.2%
25.9%9.0%6.8%3.4%1.3%
34.3%6.4%4.9%2.5%0.9%
42.3%3.5%2.6%1.3%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = Valur Reykjavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.67
Stjarnan
1.56
Breidablik
1.56
KA Akureyri
1.44
Fram Reykjavik
1.33
IA Akranes
1.26
FH hafnarfjordur
1.22
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.22
KR Reykjavik
1.15
Vestri
1.07
Afturelding
1.00
Stjarnan is 0.11 points worse than Valur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valur Reykjavik
2.26
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.15
KR Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.85
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Breidablik
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.67
Fram Reykjavik
1.52
IA Akranes
1.37
Afturelding
1.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.26
Vestri
0.96
Stjarnan is 0.41 goals worse than Valur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 2.26).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.15
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.37
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
Breidablik
1.56
Vestri
1.63
Stjarnan
1.67
Valur Reykjavik
1.70
FH hafnarfjordur
1.70
Afturelding
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.81
IA Akranes
1.85
KR Reykjavik
2.30
Stjarnan is 0.04 goals better than Valur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StjarnanStjarnan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L12L01L10W10W01L10W31W10WH·NJA18/04A·BRE23/04H·IBV28/04A·AFT05/05H·FRA10/05A·KÁR14/05H·VIK19/05A·VES24/05H·KR 29/05A·KA 01/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.601.000.870.670.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.800.550.880.750.750.42
vs Weaker (10)0.900.701.141.000.330.00
Clean sheet %53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W01L02L10W10W11D30W20W00DA·GRI19/04H·KA 23/04H·VIK28/04A·FH 04/05H·IA 10/05H·THR14/05A·BRE19/05H·IBV24/05A·AFT29/05H·FRA02/06
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.571.120.470.920.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.180.591.200.601.140.57
vs Weaker (13)0.850.541.000.290.670.83
Clean sheet %53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

StjarnanStjarnan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L11D11D02L10W53W21W03L11D01LH·NJA18/04A·BRE23/04H·IBV28/04A·AFT05/05H·FRA10/05A·KÁR14/05H·VIK19/05A·VES24/05H·KR 29/05A·KA 01/06
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.131.200.801.271.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.251.301.251.001.251.50
vs Weaker (10)1.200.801.140.571.331.33
Clean sheet %37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W11D10W01L51W11D01L00D00D21WA·GRI19/04H·KA 23/04H·VIK28/04A·FH 04/05H·IA 10/05H·THR14/05A·BRE19/05H·IBV24/05A·AFT29/05H·FRA02/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.801.940.651.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.650.822.200.600.861.14
vs Weaker (13)1.380.771.570.711.170.83
Clean sheet %43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
AFT (7)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
STJ wins
1
Draws
5
VR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik · H/A from STJ
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/24AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ2-2
30/05/24AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ5-1
19/04/24HSTJ Vs Valur Reykjavik1-0
17/09/23AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ2-0
17/07/23HSTJ Vs Valur Reykjavik2-0
29/04/23AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ3-2
16/10/22AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ3-0
14/08/22AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ6-1

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/25AKA Akureyri Vs STJ1-1
29/05/25HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik4-2
24/05/25AVestri Vs STJ3-1
19/05/25HSTJ Vs Vikingur Reykjavik2-2
14/05/25AKári Vs STJ3-6
10/05/25HSTJ Vs Fram Reykjavik2-0
05/05/25AAfturelding Vs STJ3-0
28/04/25HSTJ Vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar2-3
23/04/25ABreidablik Vs STJ2-1
18/04/25HSTJ Vs Njardvik3-3

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/06/25HVR Vs Fram Reykjavik2-1
29/05/25AAfturelding Vs VR0-2
24/05/25HVR Vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar3-0
19/05/25ABreidablik Vs VR2-1
14/05/25HVR Vs Throttur Reykjavik2-1
10/05/25HVR Vs IA Akranes6-1
04/05/25AFH hafnarfjordur Vs VR3-0
28/04/25HVR Vs Vikingur Reykjavik1-1
23/04/25HVR Vs KA Akureyri3-1
19/04/25AGrindavik Vs VR1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.66
HomeDLWDW2.20
AwayLLWLD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%68%28%
AVG goals3.763.843.68
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %72%72%72%
Over 3.5 %50%56%44%
Scored2.062.361.76
Conceded1.701.481.92
BTTS70%64%76%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.80
HomeDWWWW2.04
AwayDWLLW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%44%
AVG goals4.023.964.08
Over 1.5 %96%96%96%
Over 2.5 %82%80%84%
Over 3.5 %68%68%68%
Scored2.522.842.20
Conceded1.501.121.88
BTTS80%76%84%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2757
63%
2.1
5831+27
3.3
85%
67%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.1
-
2Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2745
48%
1.7
6146+15
4.0
100%
74%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.31.7
-
3StjarnanStjarnan2742
44%
1.6
5045+5
3.5
93%
74%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.7
-
4BreidablikBreidablik2742
41%
1.6
4642+4
3.3
89%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.6
-
5KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2739
41%
1.4
4549-4
3.5
81%
59%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.8
-
6Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2736
37%
1.3
4140+1
3.0
85%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.5
-
7IA AkranesIA Akranes2734
41%
1.3
3750-13
3.2
81%
63%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
8FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2733
30%
1.2
4946+3
3.5
89%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.81.7
-
9IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar2733
33%
1.2
3437-3
2.6
81%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.31.4
-
10KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2731
30%
1.1
5562-7
4.3
93%
85%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.02.3
-
11VestriVestri2729
30%
1.1
2644-18
2.6
78%
33%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.6
-
12AftureldingAfturelding2727
22%
1.0
3646-10
3.0
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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