Stoke are tipped to win, with a 43% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of a Charlton victory. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% chance. Stoke, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, average 1.23 goals scored and 1.54 conceded, while Charlton away face a similar opponent, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.88 on average. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6% with a 6% edge), and Under 5.5 (95.2% with a 1% edge). Stoke’s recent form shows a loss to Wolves, while Charlton come off a win over Preston.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stoke win
41.7%
Avg Implied 44.3% · @ 2.11
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.18
Dafabet
2.16
William Hil
2.15
10Bet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.23
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
Dafabet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Charlton win
29.2%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.50
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.65
Unibet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Pinnacle
3.59
1xBet
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stoke
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.35
1.35
0.62
1.69
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
1.67
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
1.50
1.23
1.38
0.64
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
0.94
1.31
1.29
1.57
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.78
0.75
2.25
1.40
1.40
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.30
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.1%
@ 1.35+3.8%
Under 1.5
26.9%
@ 3.04-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.24
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.15
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.3%
@ 2.10+1.5%
Under 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.71-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Betfair
2.15
SBO
2.13
Unibet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.8%
@ 3.75-0.1%
Under 3.5
75.2%
@ 1.24+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
10Bet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.77
Under
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
52.2%
@ 1.84+1.8%
No
47.8%
@ 1.87-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
No
Betano
1.93
William Hil
1.91
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 5.86+6.3%
1-0
9.9%@ 6.43+3.0%
0-0
9.3%@ 8.10+3.7%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.31+3.4%
2-0
7.8%@ 9.25+3.0%
0-1
7.8%@ 8.84+2.7%
1-2
7.1%@ 11.25+3.2%
0-2
5.1%@ 16.23+2.4%
Stoke goals ↓
Charlton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.8%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
1
9.9%
14%
7.1%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.8%
8.8%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.6%
4.1%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stoke goals (down), columns = Charlton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Stoke is 0.04 points better than Charlton in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Stoke is 0.15 goals better than Charlton in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Stoke is 0.04 goals better than Charlton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Stoke is 9.5 percentage points better than Charlton in terms of average possession (52% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stoke
For 5.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.6 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Charlton
For 4.0 · Against 6.8 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 10.5 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stoke
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.1
10.6
4.1
4.0
4.1
21.0
21.6
20.3
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
11.0
7.7
3.1
4.0
1.7
19.5
21.0
17.0
vs Similar (41)
10.6
10.1
11.1
4.3
4.0
4.5
21.1
21.5
20.8
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
50%
48%
52%
48%
48%
48%
44%
52%
35%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
52%
52%
52%
56%
48%
65%
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.2
10.2
3.5
3.7
3.3
21.5
21.0
22.0
vs Stronger (14)
10.5
8.2
12.2
3.4
3.8
3.1
19.4
20.5
18.6
vs Similar (35)
9.6
9.6
9.6
3.6
3.7
3.6
22.4
21.2
23.7
vs Weaker (1)
5.0
-
5.0
1.0
-
1.0
19.0
-
19.0
% over line
48%
50%
46%
46%
50%
42%
44%
46%
42%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
54%
50%
58%
56%
54%
58%
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.5%
@ 1.75+5.6%
Under 9.5
41.5%
@ 1.97-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.4%
@ 1.66-6.8%
Under 3.5
50.6%
@ 2.13+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
50.0%
Under 21.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stoke or Draw
72.1%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.3%
42%
29%
29%
covers Stoke + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Stoke or Charlton
70.7%
Avg Implied 71.4% · @ 1.31
Edge
-0.7%
42%
29%
29%
covers Stoke + Charlton
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Draw or Charlton
57.2%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.69
Edge
+2.0%
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Charlton
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.72
SBO
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stoke over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
@ 1.24+0.4%
Under
24.8%
@ 3.68-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Pinnacle
3.93
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Stoke over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
@ 2.23-1.3%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.61+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Stoke over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
@ 4.97-2.1%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.14+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Stoke over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
@ 12.12-2.5%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Charlton over/under 0.5
Over
66.2%
@ 1.45+2.0%
Under
33.8%
@ 2.59-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.76
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Betano
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Charlton over/under 1.5
Over
29.5%
@ 3.26+0.8%
Under
70.5%
@ 1.31-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
Under
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Charlton over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
@ 8.65-1.1%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.04+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.60
Unibet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Charlton over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
@ 19.00-2.6%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stoke, so a minus line means Stoke give that many goals of a start and Charlton receive them. At -1, Stoke must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stoke win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stoke)
Stoke -2
7.9%
@ 9.08-2.0%
Draw -2
13.1%
@ 5.90-2.1%
Charlton +2
79.0%
@ 1.20+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Draw
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Away
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Stoke)
Stoke -1
21.0%
@ 3.93-1.8%
Draw -1
21.8%
@ 3.65-2.7%
Charlton +1
57.2%
@ 1.70+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
Unibet
3.75
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.50
Away
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (Stoke)
Stoke +1
72.1%
@ 1.27+1.6%
Draw +1
16.6%
@ 4.94-1.5%
Charlton -1
11.3%
@ 7.94-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
10Bet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Stoke)
Stoke +2
88.7%
@ 1.06+2.2%
Draw +2
7.9%
@ 10.17-1.1%
Charlton -2
3.4%
@ 20.33-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stoke
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.65
0.41
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.54
0.62
0.54
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.25
0.75
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.67
0.25
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.55
0.25
0.67
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.3%
@ 1.43+0.4%
Under 0.5
34.7%
@ 2.65-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.83
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.8%
@ 3.02+0.1%
Under 1.5
69.2%
@ 1.34-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.11
Unibet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.02
Under
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.1%
@ 7.89-1.7%
Under 2.5
89.9%
@ 1.06+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stoke over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.4%
@ 1.98-0.6%
Under
53.6%
@ 1.76+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Unibet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Stoke over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.6%
@ 5.97-3.9%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.09+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.25
Unibet
5.80
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Stoke over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 11.75-5.9%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Charlton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.5%
@ 2.50-0.9%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.49+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Under
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Charlton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.6%
@ 9.15-1.6%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
9.60
Unibet
9.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Charlton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stoke
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.71
0.94
0.23
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.96
0.62
0.85
0.27
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.69
0.56
0.71
1.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.50
1.25
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.1%
@ 1.26+1.7%
Under 0.5
24.9%
@ 3.49-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.25-2.9%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.59+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 5.00-4.3%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.14+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.95
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stoke over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.4%
@ 1.67-2.1%
Under
46.6%
@ 2.08+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Stoke over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.9%
@ 4.34-4.5%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.18+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Stoke over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
@ 9.50-6.5%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.04+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Charlton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.4%
@ 2.04+1.9%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.70-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Charlton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.0%
@ 6.38-1.5%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.08+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.60
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Charlton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
@ 11.75-5.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Under 5.5
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+2.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+1.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+1.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+1.7%
Under 4.5
89.4%
1.06
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
+1.7%
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+2.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+3.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.08
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+1.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.14
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+4.3%
Under 5.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+2.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.18
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+4.5%
Under 25.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+4.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
75.2%
1.24
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+0.4%
Under 3.5
75.2%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+0.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.1%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+1.7%
Over 1.5
73.1%
1.35
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+3.8%
Home or Draw
72.1%
1.27
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-1.3%
Home +1 handicap
72.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
+1.6%
Home or Away
70.7%
1.31
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
-0.7%
Over 8.5 corners
70.6%
1.44
Unibet
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
-
+6.7%
Away under 1.5 goals
70.5%
1.31
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
-0.8%
Over 2.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stoke
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Róbert Boženík33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
Eric Bocat20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
V. Johansson0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bosun Lawal50%
Jun-Ho Bae40%
S. Gallagher33%
Svante Ingelsson33%
Maksym Talovierov33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
G. Hirst25%
Luke Graham25%
Sorba Thomas20%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Róbert Boženík0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
T. Rigo25%
Sorba Thomas20%
Jun-Ho Bae20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Gallagher33%
T. Rigo25%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Charlton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tyreece Campbell80%
Lloyd Jones50%
Karlan Grant20%
Sonny Carey20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Karlan Grant20%
Joe Rankin-Costello20%
Danny McNamara17%
Lloyd Jones17%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Sonny Carey0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sonny Carey40%
Nathaniel Chalobah25%
Conor Coventry20%
Karlan Grant20%
Joe Rankin-Costello20%
Millenic Alli20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sonny Carey20%
Tyreece Campbell20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Karlan Grant0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Stoke's squad is €47m more valuable than Charlton's (€79m vs €31m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Stoke's attack is €18m more valuable than Charlton's (€35m vs €18m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Stoke's midfield is €8m more valuable than Charlton's (€11m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Stoke's defence is €22m more valuable than Charlton's (€32m vs €10m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
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