Stranraer are tipped to win this League Two encounter, with a 45% chance of a home victory, 29% for a draw and 26% for an Annan Athletic win. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.8% probability. Stranraer, playing at home against a stronger side, have been scoring 1.54 goals per game while conceding 1.08, whereas Annan Athletic, on the road against a weaker opponent, have not scored in their last five matches and have given up 2.0 goals on average. Recent form shows Stranraer coming off a win, and Annan Athletic also ended their last outing with a victory. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 87.9%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.6%, Under 3.5 at 76.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 75.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.6%, and Over 1.5 at 72.0%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Stranraer, fell short of the expected 0-3 defeat to Annan Athletic. The model had picked a home win with a 45% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 0-3 gave Annan Athletic an away win. The model’s other selections performed variably: Under 5.5 cards hit at 87.9%, Under 25.5 fouls missed at 78.6%, Under 3.5 hit at 76.3%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 75.7%, Under 11.5 corners missed at 74.6%, and Over 1.5 hit at 72.0%. Both teams entered the match on a win, but the outcome was a clear reversal of expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✗ Miss
44.8%
Avg Implied 54.0% · @ 1.70
Edge
-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.54
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
26.2%
Avg Implied 20.1% · @ 4.57
Edge
+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.57
1.14
1.31
1.38
vs Stronger (26)
1.42
1.27
1.54
1.08
1.31
1.46
vs Similar (4)
1.50
1.25
2.00
2.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.43
1.19
1.69
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
1.06
1.12
1.25
0.78
0.89
vs Similar (11)
1.09
2.00
1.29
2.29
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
Under 1.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.0%
@ 1.87-5.0%
Under 2.5
55.0%
@ 1.87+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
4.7%
Stranraer goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
7.5%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.5%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.0%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.1%
4.3%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Stranraer is 0.33 points worse than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Stranraer is 0.39 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Stranraer is 0.08 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 5.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.7 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 4.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.5
3.4
2.9
3.8
22.2
22.7
21.9
vs Stronger (38)
9.4
9.2
9.7
3.3
2.8
3.8
22.2
22.9
21.4
vs Similar (12)
10.2
12.8
9.0
3.4
3.0
3.6
22.4
21.5
22.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
57%
41%
48%
30%
63%
54%
52%
56%
% under line
52%
43%
59%
52%
70%
37%
46%
48%
44%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.0
10.1
3.7
3.9
3.6
24.8
27.1
22.2
vs Stronger (31)
9.8
8.7
10.8
4.0
4.3
3.8
25.0
28.7
21.6
vs Similar (17)
8.7
8.8
8.6
3.3
3.3
3.3
23.9
24.6
22.9
vs Weaker (2)
12.0
14.0
10.0
3.5
4.0
3.0
28.0
29.0
27.0
% over line
44%
42%
46%
58%
62%
54%
70%
81%
58%
% under line
56%
58%
54%
42%
38%
46%
30%
19%
42%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.5
Albion Rvs
10.4
Cowdenbeath
10.3
Elgin
10.0
Stenhousemuir
10.0
Stranraer
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.0
Forfar
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.6
Elgin
4.2
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Stirling
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.6
Stranraer
3.4
Albion Rvs
3.2
Forfar
3.1
Kelty Hearts
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.8
Cowdenbeath
24.6
Kelty Hearts
24.0
Stirling
23.6
Albion Rvs
22.7
Edinburgh City
22.2
Stranraer
22.2
Stenhousemuir
22.2
Elgin
22.1
Forfar
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.6%
Under 9.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
51.6%
Under 21.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.50
0.79
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (26)
0.50
0.69
0.46
0.69
0.54
0.69
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.56
0.81
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
0.35
0.62
0.25
0.33
0.44
vs Similar (11)
0.36
1.09
0.43
1.43
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.07
0.36
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (26)
0.92
0.58
1.08
0.38
0.77
0.77
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.62
0.88
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.44
0.44
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
0.86
0.86
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stenhousemuir
Stirling
Elgin
Cowdenbeath