Stranraer, fresh from a win over Kelty Hearts, will face Annan Athletic, who also came off a victory against Dumbarton. The model favours a home win, with a 41% chance, a draw at 25%, and an away win at 34%. The expected total is 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome that is 22% likely. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.3% probability. Stranraer’s home form shows 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against stronger opposition, while Annan Athletic’s away form shows 0.0 scored and 1.0 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s selections are: Over 1.5 goals at 84.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 79.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.0% (missed), and Under 5.5 cards at 72.3%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Stranraer, fell short, with the match ending in a 1-1 draw. The model had predicted a home win with a 41% probability, but the outcome proved otherwise. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, which had a 11.3% chance. The model’s other selections performed well: Over 1.5 goals hit at 84.5%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 81.3%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 79.4%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 72.3%. Only Under 11.5 corners missed, with a 77.0% probability. Both teams were coming off recent wins, yet the match settled into a stalemate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied 38.7% · @ 2.37
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.2%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.45
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied 34.7% · @ 2.64
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.53
1.47
1.33
1.40
1.73
vs Stronger (23)
1.65
1.43
1.50
1.33
1.82
1.55
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.86
1.33
1.33
0.25
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.77
1.47
1.67
1.60
1.87
vs Stronger (12)
1.67
2.33
1.67
2.50
1.67
2.17
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.47
1.00
1.14
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
2.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.9%
@ 1.67+7.2%
Under 2.5
37.1%
@ 2.10-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.3%
No
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.3%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
5.7%
1-0
5.6%
0-1
5.0%
3-1
5.0%
Stranraer goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
5.0%
4.6%
2.4%
0.9%
1
5.6%
11%
7.9%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.7%
6.7%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.2%
5.0%
3.8%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.4%
2.1%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Stranraer is 0.17 points worse than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Stranraer is 0.50 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Stranraer is 0.17 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 4.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 4.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.7 · Against 10.4 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.6
10.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
22.3
23.2
21.4
vs Stronger (37)
8.9
8.7
9.2
4.6
4.3
4.8
22.4
22.9
21.8
vs Similar (13)
10.2
8.3
11.7
3.5
4.3
2.7
22.1
24.0
20.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
46%
42%
62%
62%
62%
56%
65%
46%
% under line
56%
54%
58%
38%
38%
38%
44%
35%
54%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.5
9.5
3.9
3.5
4.2
21.3
21.1
21.6
vs Stronger (21)
8.8
9.9
7.8
3.8
3.0
4.5
20.4
19.2
21.5
vs Similar (23)
10.3
9.7
10.8
3.4
3.4
3.5
21.5
22.8
20.3
vs Weaker (6)
9.2
7.3
11.0
5.7
5.7
5.7
23.7
20.3
27.0
% over line
46%
50%
42%
58%
58%
58%
49%
35%
62%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
42%
42%
42%
51%
65%
38%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.2
Stenhousemuir
10.2
Forfar
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.3
Stranraer
9.2
Albion Rvs
9.0
East Fife
8.8
Stirling
8.7
Elgin
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.6
Stranraer
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Dumbarton
4.3
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Stirling
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.9
East Fife
3.7
Albion Rvs
3.6
Forfar
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.8
Stranraer
22.3
Stirling
22.0
Forfar
21.8
Stenhousemuir
21.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.5
Albion Rvs
21.5
East Fife
21.4
Annan Athletic
21.3
Dumbarton
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.5%
Under 9.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.7%
Under 3.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.5%
Under 21.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.87
0.47
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (23)
0.87
0.78
1.00
0.58
0.73
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.00
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.60
0.87
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.33
0.50
1.67
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.29
0.29
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.60
0.87
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (23)
0.78
0.65
0.50
0.75
1.09
0.55
vs Similar (7)
0.43
1.14
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
1.00
1.17
0.83
1.00
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.73
0.71
0.86
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling
Dumbarton
East Fife
Forfar
Stenhousemuir
Elgin