Stranraer’s defensive record at home has been fragile, conceding 0.82 goals per game against stronger opposition, while their attack has also been modest, scoring only 0.82. The model therefore projects a tight affair with an expected total of 1.9 goals, most likely a 0-0 draw. The most probable single scoreline is 0-0, with a 16.1% chance, and the model’s pick remains a home win. Home win probability sits at 36%, a draw at 34%, and an away win at 30%.
The suggested selections are: Under 3.5 goals - 87.3%; Over 2.5 cards - 86.5%; Under 11.5 corners - 76.4%; Under 25.5 fouls - 74.6%; Over 19.5 fouls - 72.6%; Over 3.5 cards - 71.8%. Each selection is presented with its own probability, and no other outcomes are given a win chance.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Stranraer, fell short of the model’s Home win call, which had a 36% probability. The match ended 0-1 in favour of Annan Athletic, a result that the model’s prediction missed. The final score was 0-1, confirming an away win. The model’s favourite was wrong, so the call was incorrect.
The model’s selections performed mixed. Under 3.5 goals hit at 87.3%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 86.5%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 74.6%, and Over 3.5 cards hit at 71.8%. However, Under 11.5 corners missed at 76.4% and Over 19.5 fouls missed at 72.6%. Both teams were coming off recent wins, with Stranraer’s last match a 2-0 victory over Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic a 2-0 win over Dumbarton.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✗ Miss
35.7%
Avg Implied 37.2% · @ 2.41
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.27
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.53
Edge
-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.20
0.94
0.94
0.79
1.50
vs Stronger (19)
0.84
1.16
0.82
0.82
0.88
1.62
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.27
1.20
1.20
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.47
1.80
2.67
0.87
2.27
vs Stronger (20)
1.50
2.65
2.10
2.60
0.90
2.70
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.67
1.50
2.00
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
6.00
0.00
6.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
58.3%
Under 1.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.9%
@ 1.76-22.4%
Under 2.5
70.0%
@ 1.93+22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.7%
Under 3.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.1%
No
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.1%
1-1
14.8%
1-0
13.6%
0-1 ✓
12.0%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
6.0%
Stranraer goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
12%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
6.1%
1.8%
0.4%
2
7.5%
6.8%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
3
2.5%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Stranraer is 0.17 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Stranraer is 0.03 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Stranraer is 0.33 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 3.9 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 4.7 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.5
10.2
3.8
3.8
3.7
21.4
21.5
21.2
vs Stronger (34)
9.0
8.5
9.6
3.5
3.6
3.4
21.5
21.8
21.2
vs Similar (16)
9.9
8.4
11.0
4.4
4.6
4.2
21.1
21.0
21.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
36%
50%
52%
52%
52%
43%
45%
41%
% under line
57%
64%
50%
48%
48%
48%
57%
55%
59%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.6
3.3
3.0
3.6
20.2
20.8
19.5
vs Stronger (36)
9.4
8.9
9.9
3.2
3.4
3.1
19.7
21.6
17.6
vs Similar (13)
10.5
12.4
9.1
3.6
2.2
4.9
21.6
18.6
23.7
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
19.0
19.0
-
% over line
55%
59%
50%
46%
33%
58%
36%
50%
23%
% under line
45%
41%
50%
54%
67%
42%
64%
50%
77%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.6
Dumbarton
10.9
Stirling
10.2
Clyde
9.8
Elgin
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.7
Stranraer
9.3
Forfar
9.3
Edinburgh City
8.9
Spartans
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
6.2
Edinburgh City
5.1
Elgin
4.9
Forfar
4.8
Stirling
4.5
Clyde
4.3
Stranraer
4.1
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
3.8
Dumbarton
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.1
Forfar
24.9
Edinburgh City
24.4
Elgin
24.1
Clyde
22.5
Stirling
21.8
Spartans
21.6
Stranraer
20.9
Annan Athletic
20.6
Dumbarton
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.3%
Under 9.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.8%
Under 3.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
56.7%
Under 21.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.40
0.38
0.25
0.14
0.57
vs Stronger (19)
0.11
0.53
0.18
0.27
0.00
0.88
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.18
0.80
0.20
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.17
0.33
1.27
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (20)
0.45
1.25
0.50
1.10
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.56
0.69
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
0.63
0.64
0.55
0.88
0.75
vs Similar (11)
0.36
1.09
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
1.47
1.40
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (20)
1.05
1.40
1.60
1.50
0.50
1.30
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Forfar
Elgin
Dumbarton
Edinburgh City
Stirling