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Stranraer vs Bonnyrigg Rose Result & Analysis

Date: 16/12/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Stranraer
Stranraer
Vs
42%
30%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Stranraer win✓ Hit
42.3%
Avg Implied 41.5% · @ 2.21
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.36
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 31.2% · @ 2.94
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L02L13L34L04L31W23L03L11D22DA·STE16/09H·FOR23/09A·DUM30/09H·SPA07/10A·EAS21/10H·ELG04/11A·PET11/11H·STE18/11A·FOR02/12A·CLY09/12
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.631.291.210.752.00
vs Stronger (19)1.161.791.781.330.602.20
vs Similar (11)0.731.360.401.001.001.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L22D32W04L02L02L42W01L11DA·PET16/09H·STE23/09A·SPA30/09H·CLY21/10A·DUM04/11A·ELG11/11H·FOR18/11H·EAS21/11A·STE02/12H·PET09/12
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.131.441.250.861.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.901.102.801.001.001.20
vs Weaker (20)0.801.150.821.360.780.89
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.7%
@ 1.87-6.0%
Under 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.85+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
10.1%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
Stranraer goals ↓
Bonnyrigg Rose goals →
01234
010%8.1%5.0%1.8%0.5%
111%14%6.8%2.4%0.6%
28.2%8.7%4.6%1.6%0.4%
33.7%4.0%2.1%0.7%0.2%
41.3%1.3%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Bonnyrigg Rose goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stenhousemuir
1.89
Peterhead
1.67
Spartans
1.61
Dumbarton
1.58
East Fife
1.22
Forfar
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.08
Clyde
1.06
Stranraer
1.00
Stranraer is 0.08 points worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterhead
1.61
Dumbarton
1.56
Spartans
1.47
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
East Fife
1.28
Clyde
1.28
Stranraer
1.06
Forfar
1.06
Elgin
0.97
Stranraer is 0.25 goals worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.31).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stenhousemuir
0.86
Peterhead
1.08
Spartans
1.19
Dumbarton
1.22
Forfar
1.25
East Fife
1.31
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.33
Stranraer
1.47
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.64
Stranraer is 0.14 goals worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.33).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

StranraerStranraer

For 6.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 12.2

ðŸšĐ Corners

170643910273847511438983810121210121215111711A·CLYA·FORH·STEA·PETH·ELGA·EASH·SPAA·DUMH·FORA·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

7012322134221213212323537431535A·CLYA·FORH·STEA·PETH·ELGA·EASH·SPAA·DUMH·FORA·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.2 · Total 21.6

⚠ïļ Fouls

28076121687141412121110139101171810913281528242122212519A·CLYA·FORH·STEA·PETH·ELGA·EASH·SPAA·DUMH·FORA·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

150943554446196274642321389871591065H·PETA·STEH·EASH·FORA·ELGA·DUMH·CLYA·SPAH·STEA·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

9023333224513121253255652943387H·PETA·STEH·EASH·FORA·ELGA·DUMH·CLYA·SPAH·STEA·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 14.0 · Total 25.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

3401915171191871191210871411151315122134282718211821262833H·PETA·STEH·EASH·FORA·ELGA·DUMH·CLYA·SPAH·STEA·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StranraerStranraer

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.010.63.73.63.821.321.521.1
vs Stronger (33)10.210.49.94.13.84.421.621.421.9
vs Similar (17)10.79.212.03.03.42.720.621.819.7
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line64%58%69%48%46%50%48%58%38%
% under line36%42%31%52%54%50%52%42%62%
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.39.98.64.44.24.623.323.822.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (18)9.311.27.44.03.74.323.823.823.9
vs Weaker (32)9.29.29.34.74.64.823.023.922.2
% over line42%48%36%62%60%64%60%60%60%
% under line58%52%64%38%40%36%40%40%40%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
11.0
Stranraer
10.3
Forfar
10.3
Dumbarton
10.2
Clyde
9.8
Peterhead
9.6
Spartans
9.5
East Fife
9.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.3
Elgin
8.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.4
Peterhead
4.4
Stenhousemuir
4.3
East Fife
4.3
Elgin
4.0
Stranraer
3.7
Forfar
3.7
Spartans
3.6
Clyde
3.6

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.3
Forfar
23.0
Peterhead
23.0
Elgin
22.3
East Fife
21.7
Stranraer
21.3
Stenhousemuir
21.1
Clyde
20.7
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.8%
Under 9.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.7%
Under 21.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StranraerStranraer

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L12L12L02L20W12L02L01L12LA·STE16/09H·FOR23/09A·DUM30/09H·SPA07/10A·EAS21/10H·ELG04/11A·PET11/11H·STE18/11A·FOR02/12A·CLY09/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.570.570.441.00
vs Stronger (19)0.630.680.890.440.400.90
vs Similar (11)0.271.000.000.800.501.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W12L02L00D01L11D01L10WA·PET16/09H·STE23/09A·SPA30/09H·CLY21/10A·DUM04/11A·ELG11/11H·FOR18/11H·EAS21/11A·STE02/12H·PET09/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.370.440.500.360.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.500.100.800.200.200.00
vs Weaker (20)0.350.500.270.640.440.33
Clean sheet %73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

StranraerStranraer

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D01L22D02L11D11D01L10W10WA·STE16/09H·FOR23/09A·DUM30/09H·SPA07/10A·EAS21/10H·ELG04/11A·PET11/11H·STE18/11A·FOR02/12A·CLY09/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.710.640.311.00
vs Stronger (19)0.531.110.890.890.201.30
vs Similar (11)0.450.360.400.200.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L12L20W02L02L01L31W00D01LA·PET16/09H·STE23/09A·SPA30/09H·CLY21/10A·DUM04/11A·ELG11/11H·FOR18/11H·EAS21/11A·STE02/12H·PET09/12
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.771.000.750.500.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.401.002.000.800.801.20
vs Weaker (20)0.450.650.550.730.330.56
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards78.4%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.577.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards76.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls75.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners73.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls71.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
STR wins
2
Draws
3
BR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stranraer vs Bonnyrigg Rose · H/A from STR
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STR1-1
01/04/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STR1-0
11/02/23HSTR Vs Bonnyrigg Rose0-1
23/12/22ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STR3-2
13/08/22HSTR Vs Bonnyrigg Rose2-2

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/12/23AClyde Vs STR2-2
02/12/23AForfar Vs STR1-1
18/11/23HSTR Vs Stenhousemuir0-3
11/11/23APeterhead Vs STR3-2
04/11/23HSTR Vs Elgin3-1
21/10/23AEast Fife Vs STR4-0
07/10/23HSTR Vs Spartans3-4
30/09/23ADumbarton Vs STR3-1
23/09/23HSTR Vs Forfar0-2
16/09/23AStenhousemuir Vs STR5-0

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/12/23HBR Vs Peterhead1-1
02/12/23AStenhousemuir Vs BR1-0
21/11/23HBR Vs East Fife4-2
18/11/23HBR Vs Forfar0-2
11/11/23AElgin Vs BR2-0
04/11/23ADumbarton Vs BR4-0
21/10/23HBR Vs Clyde3-2
30/09/23ASpartans Vs BR2-2
23/09/23HBR Vs Stenhousemuir0-1
16/09/23APeterhead Vs BR2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stranraer
Stranraer
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDD1.16
HomeWLLWL1.62
AwayLLLDD0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%46%15%
AVG goals2.963.002.92
Over 1.5 %78%83%73%
Over 2.5 %52%54%50%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored1.201.540.88
Conceded1.761.462.04
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners10.3410.0410.62
Cards3.723.623.81
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.16
HomeLWLWD1.20
AwayLDLLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.523.002.04
Over 1.5 %72%84%60%
Over 2.5 %42%44%40%
Over 3.5 %24%32%16%
Scored1.121.400.84
Conceded1.401.601.20
BTTS48%60%36%
Clean Sheet26%16%36%
Corners9.289.928.64
Cards4.444.244.64

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3668
50%
1.9
5031+19
2.2
64%
36%
22%
9.8
50%
4.2
61%
23.0
56%
0
0001.40.9
-
2PeterheadPeterhead3660
44%
1.7
5839+19
2.7
81%
56%
25%
8.7
39%
5.1
89%
25.0
78%
0
0001.61.1
-
3SpartansSpartans3658
42%
1.6
5343+10
2.7
69%
56%
31%
9.4
47%
3.2
42%
20.9
44%
0
0001.51.2
-
4DumbartonDumbarton3657
44%
1.6
5644+12
2.8
67%
44%
36%
11.1
61%
3.9
61%
19.8
33%
0
0001.61.2
-
5East FifeEast Fife3644
31%
1.2
4647-1
2.6
81%
47%
25%
9.1
44%
3.5
56%
21.9
50%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ForfarForfar3642
25%
1.2
3845-7
2.3
72%
42%
22%
9.7
50%
3.5
50%
24.8
75%
0
0001.11.2
-
7ElginElgin3640
28%
1.1
3559-24
2.6
81%
50%
22%
8.8
39%
3.7
47%
25.0
69%
0
0001.01.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3639
25%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
78%
44%
31%
9.6
44%
4.0
50%
24.2
58%
0
0001.31.3
-
9ClydeClyde3638
25%
1.1
4658-12
2.9
83%
56%
28%
9.0
42%
3.4
50%
20.8
50%
0
0001.31.6
-
10StranraerStranraer3636
25%
1.0
3853-15
2.5
75%
47%
25%
10.3
67%
3.6
44%
20.0
36%
0
0001.11.5
-
Scotland: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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