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Stranraer vs Bonnyrigg Rose Result & Analysis

Date: 03/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Stranraer
Stranraer
Vs
56%
27%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Stranraer win✗ Miss
56.0%
Avg Implied 32.8% · @ 2.81
Edge
+23.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.37
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose win✓ Hit
17.1%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.31
Edge
-22.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L00D30W01L12L12L13L20W03LA·EDI01/03H·FOR04/03H·PET08/03A·EAS15/03H·FOR22/03H·CLY29/03A·SPA05/04A·STI12/04H·EDI19/04A·ELG26/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.130.870.871.271.40
vs Stronger (20)1.151.000.780.561.451.36
vs Similar (10)0.901.401.001.330.751.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L13L01L11D13L01L05L02L20W21WH·FOR22/02A·SPA01/03H·EDI08/03H·STI15/03A·CLY22/03H·ELG29/03A·PET05/04H·EAS12/04A·FOR19/04H·SPA26/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.871.331.270.872.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.932.291.431.570.433.00
vs Weaker (16)1.251.501.251.001.252.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.7%
@ 1.86-6.6%
Under 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.88+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.3%
1-1
12.6%
2-0
11.7%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.4%
0-1 ✓
5.9%
3-1
5.1%
Stranraer goals ↓
Bonnyrigg Rose goals →
01234
010.0%5.9%2.8%0.7%0.1%
113%13%4.6%1.2%0.2%
212%9.3%3.7%1.0%0.2%
36.4%5.1%2.0%0.5%0.1%
42.6%2.1%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Bonnyrigg Rose goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Stranraer is 0.06 points worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.17).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Stranraer is 0.17 goals worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.11).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Stranraer is 0.56 goals better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.72).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

StranraerStranraer

For 4.9 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

12048426544178365436164126118811117710A·ELGH·EDIA·STIA·SPAH·CLYH·FORA·EASH·PETH·FORA·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80213213521121244433324723683A·ELGH·EDIA·STIA·SPAH·CLYH·FORA·EASH·PETH·FORA·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

310998811101379713551013181511141218162120161815312626A·ELGH·EDIA·STIA·SPAH·CLYH·FORA·EASH·PETH·FORA·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

For 3.7 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

12041165169346415165355757121056118H·SPAA·FORH·EASA·PETH·ELGA·CLYH·STIH·EDIA·SPAH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

602432241241132232336345254456H·SPAA·FORH·EASA·PETH·ELGA·CLYH·STIH·EDIA·SPAH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

3108111710991251111181381412121414121519271817223122242827H·SPAA·FORH·EASA·PETH·ELGA·CLYH·STIH·EDIA·SPAH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StranraerStranraer

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.18.49.83.53.63.419.819.819.8
vs Stronger (34)8.88.19.53.53.43.620.420.620.1
vs Similar (16)9.78.910.53.64.33.018.718.019.2
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line41%33%48%46%46%46%27%29%26%
% under line59%67%52%54%54%54%73%71%74%
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.18.39.94.44.04.924.425.323.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (25)9.08.59.74.34.24.525.326.823.7
vs Weaker (25)9.18.210.14.63.85.323.423.823.0
% over line42%38%46%64%62%67%66%73%58%
% under line58%62%54%36%38%33%34%27%42%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.3
Clyde
9.7
Forfar
9.6
East Fife
9.5
Stranraer
9.3
Elgin
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.1
Peterhead
8.7

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Elgin
4.6
Forfar
4.5
Edinburgh City
4.4
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.4
Clyde
4.3
Stirling
4.2
Stranraer
4.0
Spartans
3.9
East Fife
3.9

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.9
Forfar
24.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
24.4
Elgin
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
East Fife
23.2
Clyde
22.8
Spartans
22.1
Stirling
21.3
Stranraer
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
42.8%
Under 9.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.1%
Under 3.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.2%
Under 21.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StranraerStranraer

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D00D00D01L10W10W02LA·EDI01/03H·FOR04/03H·PET08/03A·EAS15/03H·FOR22/03H·CLY29/03A·SPA05/04A·STI12/04H·EDI19/04A·ELG26/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.470.400.400.330.53
vs Stronger (20)0.350.600.330.440.360.73
vs Similar (10)0.400.200.500.330.250.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D01L01L00D02L00D10W00DH·FOR22/02A·SPA01/03H·EDI08/03H·STI15/03A·CLY22/03H·ELG29/03A·PET05/04H·EAS12/04A·FOR19/04H·SPA26/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.600.400.331.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.430.710.710.570.140.86
vs Weaker (16)0.500.690.500.250.501.12
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

StranraerStranraer

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L00D30W01L12L11D03L10W01LA·EDI01/03H·FOR04/03H·PET08/03A·EAS15/03H·FOR22/03H·CLY29/03A·SPA05/04A·STI12/04H·EDI19/04A·ELG26/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.670.470.470.930.87
vs Stronger (20)0.800.400.440.111.090.64
vs Similar (10)0.501.200.501.000.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L01L10W12L01L03L02L10W21WH·FOR22/02A·SPA01/03H·EDI08/03H·STI15/03A·CLY22/03H·ELG29/03A·PET05/04H·EAS12/04A·FOR19/04H·SPA26/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.170.730.870.531.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.501.570.711.000.292.14
vs Weaker (16)0.750.810.750.750.750.88
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards85.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners79.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.577.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls75.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls72.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards70.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
STR wins
3
Draws
4
BR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stranraer vs Bonnyrigg Rose · H/A from STR
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/25ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STR3-1
16/11/24HSTR Vs Bonnyrigg Rose1-2
31/08/24ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STR2-0
30/03/24HSTR Vs Bonnyrigg Rose1-1
03/02/24ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STR0-0
16/12/23HSTR Vs Bonnyrigg Rose3-1
19/08/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STR1-1
01/04/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STR1-0

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/25AElgin Vs STR3-0
19/04/25HSTR Vs Edinburgh City2-0
12/04/25AStirling Vs STR3-1
05/04/25ASpartans Vs STR2-1
29/03/25HSTR Vs Clyde1-2
22/03/25HSTR Vs Forfar0-1
15/03/25AEast Fife Vs STR0-3
08/03/25HSTR Vs Peterhead0-0
04/03/25HSTR Vs Forfar1-2
01/03/25AEdinburgh City Vs STR0-1

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/25HBR Vs Spartans2-1
19/04/25AForfar Vs BR0-2
12/04/25HBR Vs East Fife0-2
05/04/25APeterhead Vs BR5-0
29/03/25HBR Vs Elgin0-1
22/03/25AClyde Vs BR3-1
15/03/25HBR Vs Stirling1-1
08/03/25HBR Vs Edinburgh City0-1
01/03/25ASpartans Vs BR3-1
22/02/25HBR Vs Forfar0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stranraer
Stranraer
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.02
HomeLDLLW1.12
AwayWWLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%25%27%
AVG goals2.222.042.38
Over 1.5 %72%75%69%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %14%8%19%
Scored0.940.960.92
Conceded1.281.081.46
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet26%38%15%
Corners9.148.389.83
Cards4.004.143.87
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.06
HomeLDLLW1.35
AwayDLLLW0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%17%
AVG goals2.742.542.96
Over 1.5 %84%77%92%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored1.141.350.92
Conceded1.601.192.04
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet16%19%12%
Corners9.088.359.88
Cards4.444.004.92

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PeterheadPeterhead3666
53%
1.8
5240+12
2.6
61%
44%
33%
8.5
36%
5.3
86%
25.0
75%
0
0001.41.1
-
2East FifeEast Fife3665
56%
1.8
6537+28
2.8
72%
47%
28%
9.7
56%
4.2
67%
23.6
58%
0
0001.81.0
-
3Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3656
47%
1.6
5447+7
2.8
75%
47%
28%
9.2
42%
4.8
81%
24.4
72%
0
0001.51.3
-
4ElginElgin3655
44%
1.5
4841+7
2.5
72%
39%
19%
9.4
53%
4.8
75%
23.4
61%
0
0001.31.1
-
5SpartansSpartans3652
42%
1.4
4847+1
2.6
75%
47%
31%
8.8
39%
4.2
67%
22.0
53%
0
0001.31.3
-
6StirlingStirling3648
39%
1.3
5057-7
3.0
86%
61%
33%
10.1
64%
4.2
61%
21.5
47%
0
0001.41.6
-
7ClydeClyde3643
31%
1.2
4954-5
2.9
83%
50%
33%
9.6
50%
4.6
64%
22.8
58%
0
0001.41.5
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3642
33%
1.2
4062-22
2.8
86%
50%
28%
9.0
39%
4.9
78%
24.4
69%
0
0001.11.7
-
9StranraerStranraer3640
31%
1.1
3442-8
2.1
67%
42%
11%
9.1
42%
4.2
56%
20.6
33%
0
0000.91.2
-
10ForfarForfar3636
22%
1.0
2942-13
2.0
61%
33%
11%
9.3
36%
4.9
78%
24.7
78%
0
0000.81.2
-
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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