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Stranraer vs Dumbarton Result & Analysis

Date: 05/03/2024
Time: 19:45
Final 5-0
Stranraer
Stranraer
Vs
38%
30%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Stranraer win✓ Hit
37.7%
Avg Implied 30.6% · @ 2.99
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.32
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.19
Edge
-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L12L20W01L01L00D20W12L12L00DA·SPA23/12A·ELG06/01H·PET13/01A·STE20/01H·EAS27/01A·BON03/02H·CLY10/02H·SPA17/02A·DUM24/02H·FOR02/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.771.531.130.732.40
vs Stronger (21)1.192.001.821.360.502.70
vs Similar (9)1.001.220.750.501.201.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L13L11D10W01L22D00D02L21W10WH·EAS06/01A·PET09/01A·BON13/01A·ELG27/01A·STE03/02H·FOR10/02H·SPA13/02A·CLY17/02H·STR24/02H·PET02/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.071.470.881.311.31
vs Stronger (17)0.880.821.110.440.621.25
vs Similar (13)2.081.381.881.382.401.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.3%
@ 1.89-4.2%
Under 2.5
54.7%
@ 1.85+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.6%
1-0
9.5%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.9%
Stranraer goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
01234
09.6%8.6%5.9%2.3%0.7%
19.5%14%7.6%3.0%0.9%
27.0%8.3%5.0%2.0%0.6%
33.0%3.6%2.1%0.8%0.3%
41.0%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stenhousemuir
1.89
Peterhead
1.67
Spartans
1.61
Dumbarton
1.58
East Fife
1.22
Forfar
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.08
Clyde
1.06
Stranraer
1.00
Stranraer is 0.58 points worse than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.58).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterhead
1.61
Dumbarton
1.56
Spartans
1.47
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
East Fife
1.28
Clyde
1.28
Stranraer
1.06
Forfar
1.06
Elgin
0.97
Stranraer is 0.50 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.56).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stenhousemuir
0.86
Peterhead
1.08
Spartans
1.19
Dumbarton
1.22
Forfar
1.25
East Fife
1.31
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.33
Stranraer
1.47
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.64
Stranraer is 0.25 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.22).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

StranraerStranraer

For 4.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

130665446556792643423361291010131110759H·FORA·DUMH·SPAH·CLYA·BONH·EASA·STEH·PETA·ELGA·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

9012122361524232123149624532H·FORA·DUMH·SPAH·CLYA·BONH·EASA·STEH·PETA·ELGA·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

2508147678101410121179121310121371422131524221821232521H·FORA·DUMH·SPAH·CLYA·BONH·EASA·STEH·PETA·ELGA·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DumbartonDumbarton

For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5

ðŸšĐ Corners

170724555733512545961485991010817915513H·PETH·STRA·CLYH·SPAH·FORA·STEA·ELGA·BONA·PETH·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

802313442235312333335176581566H·PETH·STRA·CLYH·SPAH·FORA·STEA·ELGA·BONA·PETH·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.2

⚠ïļ Fouls

2801016671210108151313813131191298926132218282126202117H·PETH·STRA·CLYH·SPAH·FORA·STEA·ELGA·BONA·PETH·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StranraerStranraer

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.110.210.03.53.33.720.420.420.4
vs Stronger (34)9.910.29.63.73.24.120.419.421.3
vs Similar (16)10.710.211.13.13.52.820.422.218.5
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line62%62%62%40%33%46%42%54%31%
% under line38%38%38%60%67%54%58%46%69%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.811.010.74.33.75.020.819.622.1
vs Stronger (26)10.410.310.54.24.24.321.420.522.4
vs Similar (24)11.211.610.84.43.36.020.118.921.8
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line62%63%61%68%63%74%42%33%52%
% under line38%37%39%32%37%26%58%67%48%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.8
Stenhousemuir
10.3
Forfar
10.3
Stranraer
10.1
Clyde
10.0
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.8
East Fife
9.7
Spartans
9.3
Peterhead
9.1
Elgin
8.6

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.7
Dumbarton
4.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Stenhousemuir
4.1
East Fife
4.0
Elgin
3.6
Spartans
3.5
Stranraer
3.5
Forfar
3.5
Clyde
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.3
Forfar
23.1
Elgin
23.0
East Fife
21.6
Stenhousemuir
21.3
Dumbarton
20.8
Stranraer
20.4
Spartans
20.2
Clyde
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.7%
Under 9.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.7%
Under 3.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.6%
Under 21.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StranraerStranraer

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W01L01L00D00D10W12L00DA·SPA23/12A·ELG06/01H·PET13/01A·STE20/01H·EAS27/01A·BON03/02H·CLY10/02H·SPA17/02A·DUM24/02H·FOR02/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.870.670.470.471.27
vs Stronger (21)0.620.760.910.450.301.10
vs Similar (9)0.441.110.000.500.801.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L10W00D21W00D01L21W00DH·EAS06/01A·PET09/01A·BON13/01A·ELG27/01A·STE03/02H·FOR10/02H·SPA13/02A·CLY17/02H·STR24/02H·PET02/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.430.650.471.000.38
vs Stronger (17)0.350.180.220.110.500.25
vs Similar (13)1.380.771.120.881.800.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

StranraerStranraer

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L10W00D00D00D20W02L00D00DA·SPA23/12A·ELG06/01H·PET13/01A·STE20/01H·EAS27/01A·BON03/02H·CLY10/02H·SPA17/02A·DUM24/02H·FOR02/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.900.870.670.271.13
vs Stronger (21)0.571.240.910.910.201.60
vs Similar (9)0.560.110.750.000.400.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L10W00D01L01L00D01L00D10WH·EAS06/01A·PET09/01A·BON13/01A·ELG27/01A·STE03/02H·FOR10/02H·SPA13/02A·CLY17/02H·STR24/02H·PET02/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.820.410.310.92
vs Stronger (17)0.530.650.890.330.121.00
vs Similar (13)0.690.620.750.500.600.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls79.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards79.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.576.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards75.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners71.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Dumbarton have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Dumbarton have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
STR wins
3
Draws
4
DUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stranraer vs Dumbarton · H/A from STR
DateH/AGameScore
24/02/24ADumbarton Vs STR2-1
30/09/23ADumbarton Vs STR3-1
06/05/23ADumbarton Vs STR1-1
04/03/23HSTR Vs Dumbarton0-2
05/11/22ADumbarton Vs STR2-0
20/09/22HSTR Vs Dumbarton3-2
28/12/19ADumbarton Vs STR1-1
19/10/19HSTR Vs Dumbarton0-0

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/24HSTR Vs Forfar0-0
24/02/24ADumbarton Vs STR2-1
17/02/24HSTR Vs Spartans1-2
10/02/24HSTR Vs Clyde2-0
03/02/24ABonnyrigg Rose Vs STR0-0
27/01/24HSTR Vs East Fife0-1
20/01/24AStenhousemuir Vs STR1-0
13/01/24HSTR Vs Peterhead2-0
06/01/24AElgin Vs STR2-1
23/12/23ASpartans Vs STR3-0

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/24HDUM Vs Peterhead1-0
24/02/24HDUM Vs Stranraer2-1
17/02/24AClyde Vs DUM2-0
13/02/24HDUM Vs Spartans0-0
10/02/24HDUM Vs Forfar2-2
03/02/24AStenhousemuir Vs DUM1-0
27/01/24AElgin Vs DUM0-1
13/01/24ABonnyrigg Rose Vs DUM1-1
09/01/24APeterhead Vs DUM3-1
06/01/24HDUM Vs East Fife1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stranraer
Stranraer
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLD1.12
HomeWLWLD1.58
AwayLLLDL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%46%15%
AVG goals2.622.582.65
Over 1.5 %72%79%65%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.061.380.77
Conceded1.561.211.88
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners10.1210.2110.04
Cards3.523.333.69
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.56
HomeLDDWW1.70
AwayLDWLL1.39
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%39%
AVG goals2.522.442.61
Over 1.5 %68%59%78%
Over 2.5 %40%44%35%
Over 3.5 %28%26%30%
Scored1.401.411.39
Conceded1.121.041.22
BTTS46%48%43%
Clean Sheet36%41%30%
Corners10.8210.9610.65
Cards4.323.705.04

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3668
50%
1.9
5031+19
2.2
64%
36%
22%
9.8
50%
4.2
61%
23.0
56%
0
0001.40.9
-
2PeterheadPeterhead3660
44%
1.7
5839+19
2.7
81%
56%
25%
8.7
39%
5.1
89%
25.0
78%
0
0001.61.1
-
3SpartansSpartans3658
42%
1.6
5343+10
2.7
69%
56%
31%
9.4
47%
3.2
42%
20.9
44%
0
0001.51.2
-
4DumbartonDumbarton3657
44%
1.6
5644+12
2.8
67%
44%
36%
11.1
61%
3.9
61%
19.8
33%
0
0001.61.2
-
5East FifeEast Fife3644
31%
1.2
4647-1
2.6
81%
47%
25%
9.1
44%
3.5
56%
21.9
50%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ForfarForfar3642
25%
1.2
3845-7
2.3
72%
42%
22%
9.7
50%
3.5
50%
24.8
75%
0
0001.11.2
-
7ElginElgin3640
28%
1.1
3559-24
2.6
81%
50%
22%
8.8
39%
3.7
47%
25.0
69%
0
0001.01.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3639
25%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
78%
44%
31%
9.6
44%
4.0
50%
24.2
58%
0
0001.31.3
-
9ClydeClyde3638
25%
1.1
4658-12
2.9
83%
56%
28%
9.0
42%
3.4
50%
20.8
50%
0
0001.31.6
-
10StranraerStranraer3636
25%
1.0
3853-15
2.5
75%
47%
25%
10.3
67%
3.6
44%
20.0
36%
0
0001.11.5
-
Scotland: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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