Stranraer are favoured to win at home, with the model picking a home victory and a 48 % chance of that outcome, a 29 % draw probability and a 24 % chance of Dumbarton taking the win. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, with the most likely total being two goals, a 27 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7 % chance. Stranraer, playing at home against a side of similar strength, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, while Dumbarton, on the road, average 0.43 scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3 %), Under 5.5 (96.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.8 %), Away under 2.5 goals (92.6 %), Home +2 handicap (91.2 %) and Under 4.5 (90.0 %). Stranraer have recently drawn their last match, while Dumbarton have returned from two straight defeats.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win
51.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.12
1.06
1.21
1.79
vs Stronger (19)
1.16
1.32
1.09
1.09
1.25
1.62
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.55
1.20
1.00
1.17
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.33
1.20
0.67
2.33
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
2.08
1.50
1.17
1.17
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.56
1.22
1.22
0.33
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.8%
Under 2.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.8%
2-0
10.7%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
5.2%
Stranraer goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.7%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.2%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.2%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.5%
4.7%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Stranraer is 0.80 points better than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Stranraer is 0.80 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Stranraer is 0.80 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 7.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.5 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.6
11.3
3.0
2.8
3.3
22.7
23.1
22.3
vs Stronger (31)
10.9
10.2
11.7
2.8
2.3
3.5
23.0
23.5
22.5
vs Similar (19)
10.9
11.0
10.8
3.4
4.0
3.0
22.2
22.5
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
67%
56%
46%
42%
50%
58%
56%
61%
% under line
39%
33%
44%
54%
58%
50%
42%
44%
39%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.5
9.6
2.4
3.1
1.8
20.8
21.6
19.8
vs Stronger (22)
11.3
13.0
9.3
2.0
2.6
1.4
21.1
21.4
20.7
vs Similar (28)
10.2
10.6
9.7
2.8
3.5
2.1
20.6
21.7
19.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
63%
47%
32%
48%
16%
44%
53%
35%
% under line
44%
37%
53%
68%
52%
84%
56%
47%
65%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.7%
Under 9.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.4%
Under 3.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
47.6%
Under 21.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stranraer or Draw
80.0%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
20%
covers Stranraer + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer or Dumbarton
71.8%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
20%
covers Stranraer + Dumbarton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dumbarton
48.2%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
20%
covers Draw + Dumbarton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stranraer over/under 0.5
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stranraer, so a minus line means Stranraer give that many goals of a start and Dumbarton receive them. At -1, Stranraer must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stranraer win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stranraer)
Stranraer -2
11.3%
Draw -2
16.3%
Dumbarton +2
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stranraer)
Stranraer -1
27.5%
Draw -1
24.3%
Dumbarton +1
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stranraer)
Stranraer +1
80.0%
Draw +1
13.2%
Dumbarton -1
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stranraer)
Stranraer +2
93.2%
Draw +2
5.2%
Dumbarton -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.50
0.56
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (19)
0.68
0.74
0.55
0.55
0.88
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.91
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.47
0.60
0.20
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.72
0.44
0.67
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.0%
Under 0.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.1%
Under 1.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.9%
Under 2.5
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.62
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
0.58
0.55
0.55
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.87
0.60
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
0.83
1.00
0.67
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.83
0.78
0.56
0.22
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.6%
Under 1.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.4%
Under 2.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Dumbarton have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Dumbarton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Elgin
Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Spartans
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling