Stranraer are favoured to win, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an Elgin win. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% probability. Stranraer, playing at home against a stronger side, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Elgin, away against a weaker opponent, average 1.56 scored and 1.78 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 81.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.7% (missed), Over 1.5 at 76.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.7%, and Under 3.5 at 71.7% (missed). The model’s selection is a home win.
Results analysis
The win extends Stranraer's recent run, giving them a 3-1 triumph over Elgin. The model called a home win with a 46% probability, and it was correct. The predicted most likely score was 2-1, but the match saw an extra goal from Stranraer. The model’s selections performed well: Under 25.5 fouls hit at 81.4%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 79.3%, Over 1.5 hit at 76.1%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 75.7%. Over 2.5 cards missed at 78.7%, and Under 3.5 missed at 71.7%. Overall, the predictions were largely accurate, with only two selections falling short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✓ Hit
46.2%
Avg Implied 44.9% · @ 2.04
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.39
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.27
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
1.43
1.43
0.88
1.94
vs Stronger (20)
1.20
1.80
1.50
1.75
1.00
1.83
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.50
1.33
1.00
0.50
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.63
1.19
1.31
1.29
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.60
1.00
0.80
0.80
2.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.40
1.65
1.27
1.55
1.56
1.78
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.3%
@ 1.78-2.1%
Under 2.5
49.7%
@ 1.96+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.3%
Stranraer goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.5%
4.3%
1.6%
0.5%
1
9.4%
13%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.3%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.3%
4.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Stranraer is 0.14 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Stranraer is 0.03 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Stranraer is 0.14 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 4.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.1 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 2.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 11.2 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.0
10.2
3.9
3.6
4.2
21.0
21.3
20.7
vs Stronger (35)
9.5
9.5
9.5
4.3
3.5
4.9
21.2
21.2
21.2
vs Similar (15)
9.9
8.1
12.0
3.0
3.8
2.1
20.7
21.6
19.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
42%
50%
52%
46%
58%
50%
58%
42%
% under line
54%
58%
50%
48%
54%
42%
50%
42%
58%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.8
8.7
4.2
3.9
4.5
22.2
21.7
22.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.3
9.2
7.1
3.8
3.5
4.2
22.8
23.2
22.4
vs Weaker (32)
9.0
8.5
9.4
4.4
4.2
4.6
21.9
20.8
23.1
% over line
38%
35%
42%
60%
58%
62%
53%
46%
61%
% under line
62%
65%
58%
40%
42%
38%
47%
54%
39%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.9
Forfar
10.6
Dumbarton
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.8
Stranraer
9.6
Albion Rvs
9.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.5
Stirling
9.2
East Fife
9.2
Elgin
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.4
Elgin
4.2
East Fife
4.2
Albion Rvs
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Stranraer
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Forfar
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
22.2
Elgin
22.2
Forfar
21.9
Albion Rvs
21.7
East Fife
21.2
Stirling
21.2
Stranraer
21.0
Annan Athletic
20.9
Stenhousemuir
20.7
Dumbarton
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.7%
Under 9.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.0%
Under 3.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
47.8%
Under 21.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.79
0.71
0.50
1.12
vs Stronger (20)
0.75
0.95
1.00
0.88
0.58
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.62
0.69
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.50
0.20
0.60
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.80
0.82
0.73
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.64
0.71
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (20)
0.45
0.85
0.50
0.88
0.42
0.83
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.83
0.50
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.56
0.62
0.50
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.10
0.80
0.20
0.20
2.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.55
0.85
0.45
0.82
0.67
0.89
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling
Dumbarton
Annan Athletic
East Fife
Forfar
Stenhousemuir