Stranraer are clear favourites, the model rating a 66% chance of a home win and a 22% draw, with only a 13% chance of an Elgin victory. The prediction hinges on Stranraer’s solid home form - they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against stronger opponents - while Elgin, playing away against a weaker side, struggle to score, averaging just 0.57 goals and conceding 1.71. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Stranraer, with a 11.9% probability. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards (82.9%), Over 1.5 (79.6%), Under 25.5 fouls (74.4%), Under 11.5 corners (74.4%), Over 19.5 fouls (72.9% miss) and Over 2.5 cards (71.6%). The model’s edge is clear: a home win probability of 66%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 13%.
Results analysis
Stranraer finished 1-2 against Elgin (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 66% home win, 22% draw and 13% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (80%), Under 25.5 fouls (74%), Under 11.5 corners (74%), Over 2.5 cards (72%). Missed: Under 5.5 cards (83%), Over 19.5 fouls (73%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✗ Miss
65.7%
Avg Implied 46.4% · @ 1.98
Edge
+19.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.43
Edge
-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✓ Hit
12.7%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.42
Edge
-14.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.53
1.67
1.07
0.73
2.00
vs Stronger (20)
1.10
1.75
1.70
1.40
0.50
2.10
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.10
1.60
0.40
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.63
1.20
0.87
0.60
2.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
2.14
1.17
1.00
0.62
3.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
1.19
1.22
0.78
0.57
1.71
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.6%
@ 1.80+3.7%
Under 2.5
44.4%
@ 1.94-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%
1-0
10.4%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
8.3%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
6.4%
4-0
4.3%
Stranraer goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
3.5%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
10%
10%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.3%
6.8%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.3%
3.5%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stenhousemuir
1.89
Peterhead
1.67
Spartans
1.61
Dumbarton
1.58
East Fife
1.22
Forfar
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.08
Clyde
1.06
Stranraer
1.00
Stranraer is 0.11 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterhead
1.61
Dumbarton
1.56
Spartans
1.47
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
East Fife
1.28
Clyde
1.28
Stranraer
1.06
Forfar
1.06
Elgin
0.97
Stranraer is 0.08 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stenhousemuir
0.86
Peterhead
1.08
Spartans
1.19
Dumbarton
1.22
Forfar
1.25
East Fife
1.31
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.33
Stranraer
1.47
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.64
Stranraer is 0.17 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 5.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 10.2 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 4.9 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.9
3.6
3.4
3.8
20.3
19.9
20.7
vs Stronger (34)
10.1
10.5
9.7
3.8
3.3
4.1
20.4
19.3
21.3
vs Similar (16)
10.3
10.1
10.6
3.2
3.4
3.0
20.2
21.0
19.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
62%
62%
42%
33%
50%
42%
50%
35%
% under line
38%
38%
38%
58%
67%
50%
58%
50%
65%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.8
8.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
23.2
23.7
22.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
8.4
8.6
8.4
4.2
5.2
3.3
24.4
26.2
22.8
vs Weaker (30)
8.7
8.9
8.6
3.2
2.7
3.9
22.5
22.3
22.7
% over line
36%
36%
36%
50%
40%
60%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
64%
64%
64%
50%
60%
40%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.8
Stenhousemuir
10.4
Forfar
10.2
Stranraer
10.1
Clyde
10.0
East Fife
9.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.5
Spartans
9.2
Peterhead
9.2
Elgin
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.8
Dumbarton
4.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Stenhousemuir
4.1
East Fife
3.9
Elgin
3.6
Stranraer
3.6
Forfar
3.4
Clyde
3.4
Spartans
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.9
Forfar
23.3
Elgin
23.2
East Fife
21.4
Stenhousemuir
21.3
Dumbarton
20.7
Spartans
20.6
Stranraer
20.3
Clyde
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.8%
Under 9.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.8%
Under 3.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
57.0%
Under 21.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.87
0.47
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
0.80
0.90
0.50
0.30
1.10
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.00
0.80
0.40
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.79
0.50
0.50
0.12
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.69
0.56
0.67
0.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
0.95
0.80
0.90
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.10
0.80
0.00
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.67
0.27
0.40
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.36
0.67
0.50
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.11
0.29
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Peterhead
Spartans
Dumbarton
East Fife
Forfar
Clyde