Stranraer vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Stranraer are favoured to win, with a 55% chance of taking the match home, 26% for a draw and 19% for Elgin to triumph. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.3% chance. Stranraer, playing at home against a stronger side, average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Elgin, away to a weaker opponent, average 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 83.8%, Under 25.5 fouls at 81.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.7%, Under 3.5 fouls at 72.1% and Over 2.5 cards at 70.6%. The home win probability is 55%, the draw probability 26% and the away win probability 19%.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win call, failed to materialise. Stranraer and Elgin settled for a 1-1 draw, ending the home side’s recent win streak and keeping Elgin unbeaten in five. The model’s prediction of a Home win with a 55% probability was incorrect. The model’s other selections all performed as expected: Under 5.5 cards hit at 83.8%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 81.9%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 75.8%, Over 1.5 hit at 75.7%, Under 3.5 hit at 72.1%, while Over 2.5 cards missed at 70.6%. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, which had a 12.3% chance.