The contest between Stranraer and Forfar is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 37%. Home and away win chances sit at 34% and 37% respectively, while a draw is 30%. The predicted scoreline is 1-1, a 14.2% chance, and the expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly busy match. Stranraer, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.33 conceded, whereas Forfar on the road averages 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards (82.8%), Under 11.5 corners (77.1%), Under 3.5 (76.2%), Under 25.5 fouls (74.4% miss), Over 19.5 fouls (72.9%), Over 1.5 (72.2% miss), and Under 5.5 cards (70.1%). The match is finely balanced, with both sides showing recent form that could tip the scales.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as Stranraer edged Forfar 1-0, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite for an away win. The prediction had given the away side a 37% chance, yet the home team’s recent form - three wins in five, including a 2-0 victory over Kelty Hearts - proved decisive. The model’s call was wrong. The model also suggested Over 2.5 cards (82.8%), which hit, and Under 11.5 corners (77.1%) and Under 3.5 (76.2%) both hit. Under 25.5 fouls (74.4%) missed, Over 19.5 fouls (72.9%) hit, Over 1.5 (72.2%) missed, and Under 5.5 cards (70.1%) hit. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the home win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✓ Hit
33.8%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.38
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.36
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied 34.4% · @ 2.66
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.70
1.47
1.47
1.67
1.93
vs Stronger (23)
1.65
1.48
1.33
1.25
2.00
1.73
vs Similar (7)
1.29
2.43
2.00
2.33
0.75
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.50
1.44
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
0.86
1.17
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.62
1.70
1.70
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.1%
@ 1.73-8.7%
Under 2.5
54.9%
@ 2.02+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.7%
0-1
9.3%
1-0 ✓
8.8%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.1%
Stranraer goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
9.3%
6.7%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.8%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.1%
7.8%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.5%
3.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Stranraer is 0.08 points worse than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Stranraer is 0.17 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Stranraer is 0.39 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 5.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 5.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.8
9.8
4.3
4.3
4.2
22.5
22.8
22.2
vs Stronger (38)
9.0
8.9
9.2
4.5
4.3
4.8
22.6
22.9
22.4
vs Similar (12)
10.2
8.4
11.4
3.5
4.4
2.9
22.2
22.6
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
50%
42%
62%
62%
62%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
38%
38%
38%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.5
3.4
3.0
3.8
22.4
21.4
23.6
vs Stronger (24)
9.3
9.0
9.6
3.4
2.5
4.2
22.0
20.5
23.4
vs Similar (25)
9.6
9.9
9.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
22.8
22.0
23.8
vs Weaker (1)
7.0
7.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
48%
54%
42%
50%
35%
67%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
52%
46%
58%
50%
65%
33%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.1
Stenhousemuir
10.1
Forfar
9.4
Stranraer
9.3
Annan Athletic
9.3
Albion Rvs
8.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
8.8
East Fife
8.8
Stirling
8.6
Elgin
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Elgin
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Stirling
3.8
Albion Rvs
3.5
Forfar
3.4
East Fife
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.8
Stranraer
22.5
Forfar
22.4
Stirling
22.2
Annan Athletic
22.2
Dumbarton
21.6
Stenhousemuir
21.5
Albion Rvs
21.4
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.2
East Fife
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.5%
Under 9.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.0%
Under 3.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
57.0%
Under 21.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.47
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (23)
0.91
0.78
0.92
0.50
0.91
1.09
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.86
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.56
1.06
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (16)
0.69
1.00
0.70
1.30
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.67
1.00
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (23)
0.74
0.70
0.42
0.75
1.09
0.64
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.57
1.67
2.00
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.94
0.38
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.43
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.40
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling
Dumbarton
Annan Athletic
East Fife
Stenhousemuir
Elgin