Stranraer vs Forfar Result & Analysis

Stranraer’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only 0.8 goals per match against similarly matched opponents, while Forfar’s away form shows a slightly higher concession rate of 1.1. The model projects a tight, low-scoring game with an expected total of 2.1 goals, most likely 2 goals overall. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. The prediction favours a home win, with a 41% chance, a draw 32%, and an away win 26%. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 84.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 72.3%, and Under 11.5 corners at 74.6%. Stranraer comes off a win over Kelty Hearts, while Forfar follows a draw against Edinburgh City. All figures are presented as percentages and each selection is listed with its probability.

The upset came early as Forfar overturned Stranraer’s home advantage to win 2-0, ending the visitors’ run of wins, draws and losses. The pre-match favourite was the model’s Home win call, which carried a 41% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The model’s other selections all proved accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit at 84.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.7% and Over 2.5 cards at 72.3%. The only miss was Under 11.5 corners, which fell short of the 74.6% chance. The final score of 0-2 confirms the away win.