Defensive solidity will shape this tight encounter, as Stranraer’s home form shows a modest 1.33 goals scored and a 1.0 goals conceded average against similarly matched opposition, while Forfar’s away record reveals a 0.67 scoring rate and a 2.33 concession average. The model favours a home win, assigning a 47% chance to Stranraer, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a low-scoring game, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Stranraer, with a 14.8% probability. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 84.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 83.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.4%, and Over 19.5 fouls at 77.4%. Both teams are coming off recent wins, with Stranraer having beaten Kelty Hearts 2-0 and Forfar drawing 1-1 with Edinburgh City.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite Stranraer failed to deliver a win, with Forfar securing a 1-2 victory. The model had tipped a home win at 47%, but that call was wrong. The match finished 1-2, an away win that matched the model’s prediction of an actual result of Away win. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 3.5 goals at 84.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 83.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.4%, and Over 19.5 fouls at 77.4%. Stranraer, coming off a win, could not sustain their form, while Forfar, after a draw, found the edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✗ Miss
46.7%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.47
Edge
+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.05
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✓ Hit
21.8%
Avg Implied 32.8% · @ 2.79
Edge
-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.20
1.00
1.07
1.06
1.31
vs Stronger (21)
1.05
1.19
0.91
1.09
1.20
1.30
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.22
1.33
1.00
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.37
1.00
1.20
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
1.17
1.29
1.00
0.82
1.27
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.89
1.00
1.67
0.67
2.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.7%
Under 1.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.4%
@ 2.19-8.1%
Under 2.5
65.6%
@ 1.62+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.7%
Under 3.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.9%
No
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
1-1
14.0%
0-0
13.8%
2-0
10.3%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
1-2 ✓
5.1%
3-0
4.4%
Stranraer goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
8.7%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.1%
1.3%
0.3%
2
10%
8.2%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
3
4.4%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Stranraer is 0.11 points better than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Stranraer is 0.14 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 0.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Stranraer and Forfar are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 4.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 4.4 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 12.1 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.9
9.8
3.5
3.5
3.5
19.5
19.1
19.9
vs Stronger (34)
9.1
8.6
9.6
3.6
3.3
3.9
20.3
19.9
20.9
vs Similar (16)
9.9
9.6
10.2
3.4
4.0
2.9
17.9
17.6
18.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
45%
45%
48%
44%
52%
32%
32%
32%
% under line
55%
55%
55%
52%
56%
48%
68%
68%
68%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.7
9.8
3.9
3.6
4.2
24.7
24.0
25.4
vs Stronger (31)
9.5
9.8
9.2
3.8
3.6
4.0
25.5
24.2
26.5
vs Similar (14)
9.5
9.1
10.2
4.3
4.1
4.6
25.5
25.5
25.6
vs Weaker (5)
11.8
11.0
13.0
3.0
1.7
5.0
18.6
19.3
17.5
% over line
49%
41%
57%
60%
54%
67%
77%
68%
86%
% under line
51%
59%
43%
40%
46%
33%
23%
32%
14%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.4
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Forfar
9.6
East Fife
9.6
Clyde
9.5
Stranraer
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.4
Elgin
9.0
Spartans
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.5
Forfar
4.4
Elgin
4.4
Edinburgh City
4.3
Stirling
4.0
Clyde
3.9
Stranraer
3.9
East Fife
3.8
Spartans
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.0
Elgin
24.9
Forfar
24.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
24.3
Edinburgh City
23.3
East Fife
22.5
Spartans
22.3
Clyde
22.0
Stirling
21.2
Stranraer
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.8%
Under 9.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.2%
Under 3.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.5%
Under 21.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (21)
0.43
0.62
0.45
0.45
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.44
0.67
0.67
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.28
0.50
0.29
0.43
0.27
0.55
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.11
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.50
0.57
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (21)
0.62
0.57
0.45
0.64
0.80
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.78
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
0.67
1.00
0.57
0.55
0.73
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.78
0.50
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
East Fife
Edinburgh City
Elgin
Spartans
Stirling
Clyde