Stranraer’s defensive record at home, conceding an average of 1.25 goals, is mirrored by Forfar’s away concession of 2.0 goals against similar opposition, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours a home win, with a 41% chance, followed by a 33% draw and a 25% away win. The average goal tally is 2.0, and the most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 15.2% probability. Stranraer’s recent form, highlighted by a win over Kelty Hearts, gives them a slight edge, while Forfar’s draw against Edinburgh City keeps them competitive. The suggested selections are: Over 2.5 cards at 87.3%, Under 3.5 at 86.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.0%, Over 3.5 cards at 73.0%, and Under 10.5 corners at 70.2%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Forfar edged Stranraer 1-0, a result that snapped the home side’s winning streak and overturned the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win at 41% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards (87.3%) missed, Under 3.5 (86.1%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (80.3%) missed, Under 11.5 corners (80.0%) hit, Over 3.5 cards (73.0%) missed, and Under 10.5 corners (70.2%) missed. The game’s final score of 0-1 confirmed an away win, leaving the model’s favourite call incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✗ Miss
41.4%
Avg Implied 38.0% · @ 2.42
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.23
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.75
Edge
-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.03
0.93
0.86
1.12
1.19
vs Stronger (21)
1.10
0.95
0.80
0.70
1.36
1.18
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.22
1.25
1.25
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.37
1.00
1.33
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
1.11
1.12
1.12
0.90
1.10
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.1%
Under 1.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.7%
@ 2.19-11.0%
Under 2.5
68.3%
@ 1.63+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.9%
Under 3.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.9%
No
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.2%
1-1
14.5%
1-0
14.5%
0-1 ✓
10.2%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
4.8%
Stranraer goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
10%
4.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.5%
1.5%
0.3%
2
9.0%
7.5%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
3
3.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Stranraer is 0.11 points better than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Stranraer is 0.14 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 0.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Stranraer and Forfar are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 4.0 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 4.0 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 12.2 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.7
9.9
3.6
3.8
3.5
19.8
19.9
19.6
vs Stronger (33)
9.0
8.4
9.6
3.6
3.4
3.8
20.5
20.6
20.4
vs Similar (17)
9.8
9.2
10.2
3.6
4.5
2.9
18.4
18.6
18.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
41%
45%
48%
48%
48%
34%
36%
32%
% under line
57%
59%
55%
52%
52%
52%
66%
64%
68%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.8
4.0
3.5
4.5
24.7
24.0
25.3
vs Stronger (30)
9.5
9.7
9.4
3.9
3.5
4.2
25.5
24.2
26.3
vs Similar (15)
9.4
9.1
9.7
4.5
4.1
5.2
25.6
25.5
25.7
vs Weaker (5)
11.8
11.0
13.0
3.0
1.7
5.0
18.6
19.3
17.5
% over line
49%
40%
57%
62%
54%
69%
79%
70%
87%
% under line
51%
60%
43%
38%
46%
31%
21%
30%
13%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.3
East Fife
9.6
Forfar
9.6
Clyde
9.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.3
Spartans
9.2
Stranraer
9.2
Elgin
9.1
Peterhead
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Elgin
4.5
Forfar
4.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.4
Edinburgh City
4.4
Stirling
4.0
Clyde
4.0
Stranraer
4.0
East Fife
3.8
Spartans
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.0
Elgin
24.7
Forfar
24.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.5
East Fife
22.6
Clyde
22.4
Spartans
21.9
Stirling
21.2
Stranraer
19.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.7%
Under 9.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
73.0%
Under 3.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
66.3%
Under 21.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (21)
0.33
0.57
0.30
0.40
0.36
0.73
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.33
0.75
0.50
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.28
0.44
0.25
0.38
0.30
0.50
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.10
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.50
0.43
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (21)
0.76
0.38
0.50
0.30
1.00
0.45
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.89
0.50
0.75
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.67
0.73
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
0.67
0.88
0.75
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
East Fife
Edinburgh City
Elgin
Spartans
Stirling
Clyde