The encounter between Stranraer and Forfar is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw and an away victory are almost equal. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly high-scoring match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.3% chance. Stranraer, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Forfar, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards (79.6%), Under 3.5 goals (78.1%), Over 19.5 fouls (76.5%), Over 2.5 cards (75.1%), Under 11.5 corners (74.1%), Under 25.5 fouls (70.4%) and Over 1.5 goals (70.2%). The probabilities for the match outcomes are Home win 40%, Draw 30%, Away win 30%. All selections are presented with their exact percentages, and no other figures are repeated.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Stranraer, failed to deliver, as Forfar snatched a 1-0 victory, extending their recent run of wins after a defeat. The model had tipped a home win with a 40% chance, but this call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed an away win. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 5.5 cards (79.6%) missed, Under 3.5 (78.1%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (76.5%) hit, Over 2.5 cards (75.1%) hit, Under 11.5 corners (74.1%) hit, Under 25.5 fouls (70.4%) hit, and Over 1.5 (70.2%) missed. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and every pick was reported once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.23
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.09
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✓ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 2.89
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.62
1.12
1.57
1.29
vs Stronger (19)
1.63
1.16
1.36
1.09
2.00
1.25
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.27
2.20
1.20
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.37
1.31
1.31
1.50
1.43
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
1.58
1.29
1.43
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (15)
1.80
1.33
1.57
1.43
2.00
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.00-3.2%
Under 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.70+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
10.5%
0-1 ✓
8.7%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.4%
Stranraer goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.7%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.4%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.3%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Stranraer is 0.08 points worse than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Stranraer is 0.14 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Stranraer is 0.03 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 6.7 · Against 3.6 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.9 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 4.9 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.0
11.3
3.5
3.2
3.7
22.1
22.9
21.3
vs Stronger (33)
10.6
9.6
11.8
3.3
3.0
3.6
22.4
23.7
20.9
vs Similar (17)
10.7
10.6
10.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
21.7
21.5
21.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
62%
62%
50%
46%
54%
50%
52%
48%
% under line
38%
38%
38%
50%
54%
46%
50%
48%
52%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.1
9.0
3.8
3.7
3.8
24.1
23.7
24.5
vs Stronger (22)
9.0
8.8
9.3
3.6
3.6
3.7
25.1
24.2
26.4
vs Similar (22)
8.6
9.3
7.9
3.6
3.7
3.6
24.2
24.6
23.8
vs Weaker (6)
10.8
9.7
12.0
4.7
4.0
5.3
20.8
19.0
22.7
% over line
43%
39%
48%
54%
54%
54%
73%
70%
76%
% under line
57%
61%
52%
46%
46%
46%
27%
30%
24%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
Dumbarton
10.6
East Kilbride
10.5
Elgin
10.4
Stranraer
10.2
Clyde
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
4.5
Elgin
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dumbarton
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.7
Forfar
24.4
Edinburgh City
24.1
Elgin
22.5
Stranraer
22.4
Clyde
22.4
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stirling
21.0
Dumbarton
20.4
Spartans
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.1%
Under 9.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.2%
Under 3.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
61.4%
Under 21.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.75
0.44
1.07
0.79
vs Stronger (19)
1.00
0.58
0.55
0.36
1.62
0.88
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.64
1.20
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.81
0.62
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.33
0.86
0.43
1.50
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.88
0.69
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
0.58
0.82
0.73
0.38
0.38
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.64
1.00
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.69
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.67
0.29
0.43
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Elgin
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton
Edinburgh City
Stirling