Stranraer enter the match after a draw against Stirling, while Kelty Hearts come off a win over Dumbarton, giving the visitors a slight morale lift. The model favours an away win, assigning a 36 % chance to Kelty Hearts, 33 % to Stranraer and 31 % to a draw. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 14.5 %. Stranraer’s home form against stronger opposition shows an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.22 conceded, whereas Kelty Hearts’ away form against weaker teams yields only 0.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8 % with an 8 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3 % with an 8 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.9 % with an 8 % edge) and Away under 3.5 goals (96.6 % with a 6 % edge).
Results analysis
The upset came as Stranraer edged Kelty Hearts 2-0, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win that had a 36% probability. The home side, fresh from a win, proved resilient, while Kelty Hearts, who had just suffered a defeat, failed to convert their chances. The model’s call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.0%, Under 5.5 hit at 96.9%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.6%. The final score of 2-0 confirms the home win, contradicting the model’s prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✓ Hit
32.7%
Avg Implied 44.0% · @ 2.06
Edge
-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.12
Dafabet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.40
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.61
Betfair
3.60
Betano
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Kelty Hearts win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.07
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.25
Dafabet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Betano
3.10
William Hil
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.43
1.07
1.13
1.27
1.73
vs Stronger (19)
1.16
1.37
1.00
1.20
1.33
1.56
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.55
1.20
1.00
1.17
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.60
1.07
1.53
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.67
0.91
1.64
1.20
1.70
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
1.25
1.50
1.25
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.21-7.2%
Under 1.5
31.3%
@ 3.82+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
1xBet
3.84
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.9%
@ 1.73-12.9%
Under 2.5
59.1%
@ 2.01+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.79
SBO
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.5%
@ 2.76-12.8%
Under 3.5
79.5%
@ 1.38+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.78
Superbet
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
@ 1.62-8.7%
No
51.6%
@ 2.16+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Superbet
1.64
BetVictor
1.60
No
Marathonbet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Betano
2.18
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 6.48+7.6%
0-0
11.1%@ 11.23+7.1%
0-1
10.5%@ 10.55+6.2%
1-0
9.7%@ 8.41+4.4%
1-2
7.9%@ 10.31+3.6%
2-1
7.4%@ 8.26+2.0%
0-2
7.1%@ 16.32+4.3%
2-0 ✓
6.2%@ 10.40+1.9%
Stranraer goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
7.1%
2.8%
0.8%
1
9.7%
15%
7.9%
3.2%
0.9%
2
6.2%
7.4%
4.4%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.3%
2.8%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Stranraer is 0.20 points better than Kelty Hearts in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Stranraer is 0.20 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Stranraer is 0.80 goals better than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 7.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
For 5.1 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 14.5 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.6
11.3
3.0
2.8
3.3
22.7
23.1
22.3
vs Stronger (32)
10.9
10.2
11.7
2.7
2.3
3.3
23.0
23.5
22.5
vs Similar (18)
10.9
11.0
10.8
3.6
4.0
3.3
22.2
22.5
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
67%
56%
46%
42%
50%
58%
56%
61%
% under line
39%
33%
44%
54%
58%
50%
42%
44%
39%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.0
9.9
3.5
3.3
3.8
23.7
23.2
24.2
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (37)
9.4
9.4
9.5
3.8
3.4
4.2
23.4
22.9
23.9
vs Weaker (12)
9.1
7.5
10.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
24.8
24.2
25.2
% over line
45%
47%
42%
56%
54%
58%
61%
47%
74%
% under line
55%
53%
58%
44%
46%
42%
39%
53%
26%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.3%
@ 1.73+4.8%
Under 9.5
41.7%
@ 1.99-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.5%
Under 3.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.0%
Under 21.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stranraer or Draw✓ Hit
63.5%
Avg Implied 70.4% · @ 1.30
Edge
-6.9%
33%
31%
36%
covers Stranraer + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Stranraer or Kelty Hearts✓ Hit
69.2%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-4.5%
33%
31%
36%
covers Stranraer + Kelty Hearts
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Draw or Kelty Hearts✗ Miss
67.3%
Avg Implied 56.0% · @ 1.63
Edge
+11.3%
33%
31%
36%
covers Draw + Kelty Hearts
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
William Hil
1.65
BetVictor
1.65
Superbet
1.62
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stranraer over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.4%
@ 1.19-10.0%
Under
32.6%
@ 4.10+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Under
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Betano
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Stranraer over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.9%
@ 1.95-16.6%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.77+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Stranraer over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 3.98-12.7%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.20+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
Superbet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Stranraer over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 8.60-8.1%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.04+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Bet365
8.50
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
69.8%
@ 1.31-0.8%
Under
30.2%
@ 3.15+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
BetVictor
1.30
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
1xBet
3.18
Betano
3.15
Superbet
2.95
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.7%
@ 2.52-3.1%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.46+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Pinnacle
2.51
Superbet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.85-3.7%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.09+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.25
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Kelty Hearts over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 10.38-5.6%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.50
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stranraer, so a minus line means Stranraer give that many goals of a start and Kelty Hearts receive them. At -1, Stranraer must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stranraer win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stranraer)Actual: Draw
Stranraer -2
4.3%
@ 8.15-6.7%
Draw -2
9.5%
@ 6.17-5.0%
Kelty Hearts +2
86.3%
@ 1.20+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
8.30
Bet365
8.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.35
Bet365
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Stranraer)Actual: Stranraer
Stranraer -1
13.7%
@ 3.78-9.6%
Draw -1
19.0%
@ 3.90-3.7%
Kelty Hearts +1
67.3%
@ 1.64+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
Betfair
3.75
Away
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Handicap +1 (Stranraer)Actual: Stranraer
Stranraer +1
63.5%
@ 1.29-4.4%
Draw +1
20.4%
@ 4.85+2.3%
Kelty Hearts -1
16.1%
@ 6.28+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw
Marathonbet
4.95
Bet365
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.00
Handicap +2 (Stranraer)Actual: Stranraer
Stranraer +2
83.9%
@ 1.08+1.3%
Draw +2
10.8%
@ 8.50+0.3%
Kelty Hearts -2
5.3%
@ 13.00-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Away
Bet365
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
0.74
0.40
0.60
0.89
0.89
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.91
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.57
0.18
0.73
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.75
1.00
0.75
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.7%
@ 1.32-3.0%
Under 0.5
33.3%
@ 3.05+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.12
Pinnacle
3.05
1xBet
3.02
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
28.9%
@ 2.51-7.8%
Under 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.45+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.57
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Superbet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Betfair
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.0%
@ 6.04-4.4%
Under 2.5
89.0%
@ 1.09+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.5%
@ 1.82-3.1%
Under
52.5%
@ 1.87+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.1%
@ 5.30-5.3%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.11+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 9.75-6.4%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.14-6.3%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.62+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 7.17-3.2%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.06+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.50
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 11.25-7.0%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.67
0.53
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.44
0.67
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.67
0.80
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
1.10
0.73
0.91
0.70
1.30
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.6%
@ 1.20+0.5%
Under 0.5
22.4%
@ 4.04-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.05
William Hil
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.0%
@ 1.95-2.5%
Under 1.5
55.0%
@ 1.76+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.5%
@ 3.89-2.2%
Under 2.5
78.5%
@ 1.21+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.6%
@ 1.58-3.7%
Under
45.4%
@ 2.21+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 3.65-5.7%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.23+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 8.55-6.0%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.3%
@ 1.81-4.7%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.88+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 5.00-7.5%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.13+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.20
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 9.50-7.7%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.03+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.05
BetVictor
1.02
-
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.6%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
-
-
+5.3%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
86.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-
+11.7%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
83.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.6%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
+0.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.1%
1.45
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Betfair
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
+7.8%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.3%
1.44
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
-
-
+6.3%
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Kelty Hearts have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Kelty Hearts have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Kelty Hearts have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elgin
Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Spartans
Annan Athletic
Stirling
Dumbarton