Stranraer hosts Spartans in a Scotland: League Two match with Spartans favoured to win. Spartans are coming off a defeat, while Stranraer is riding a recent win, having beaten Spartans 1-0 last time out. The model predicts an Away win, with a 54% chance of Spartans winning. The expected total goals is 2.9, with 2 goals being the most likely total.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8% chance. Stranraer's home form is weaker at home, scoring 1 goal on average and conceding 1.2. Spartans' away form is stronger, scoring 1.54 goals on average and conceding 1.38. The model selects Over 1.5 with a 79.6% chance of occurring.
The home win percentage is 21%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 54%. The model's selections are: Away win (54%), Over 1.5 (79.6%), and Stranraer to score (no edge percentage given).
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Stranraer secured a 1-0 home win, extending their run of form that includes a win over Spartans just last week. This result marks the first defeat for Spartans, who were coming off a defeat themselves. The model's selection, Spartans to win away, was incorrect, given their 54% pre-match probability of victory. The model's call was wrong, as Spartans failed to come through. The model's suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, missed with a probability of 79.6%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✓ Hit
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartans win✗ Miss
54.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.47
1.19
1.25
1.21
1.71
vs Stronger (19)
1.16
1.42
1.00
1.30
1.33
1.56
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.55
1.50
1.17
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
1.33
0.87
1.93
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
1.38
1.00
0.67
2.40
1.80
vs Weaker (22)
1.55
1.18
1.42
0.92
1.70
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.3%
0-1
9.1%
0-0
6.6%
1-3
6.0%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
5.7%
Stranraer goals ↓
Spartans goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
9.1%
9.3%
5.7%
2.6%
1
4.8%
12%
9.9%
6.0%
2.8%
2
3.1%
5.7%
5.2%
3.2%
1.5%
3
1.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Spartans goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Stranraer is 0.20 points better than Spartans in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Stranraer is 1.20 goals worse than Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Stranraer is 1.00 goals better than Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 7.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
For 6.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.6
11.3
3.0
2.8
3.3
22.7
23.1
22.3
vs Stronger (33)
10.9
10.2
11.7
2.6
2.3
3.1
23.0
23.5
22.5
vs Similar (17)
10.9
11.0
10.8
3.8
4.0
3.7
22.2
22.5
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
67%
56%
46%
42%
50%
58%
56%
61%
% under line
39%
33%
44%
54%
58%
50%
42%
44%
39%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.8
10.1
2.9
3.0
2.8
19.9
21.7
18.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
8.3
7.5
9.0
2.5
2.4
2.5
22.9
26.5
20.0
vs Weaker (37)
9.8
9.1
10.4
3.1
3.2
2.9
19.0
20.4
17.6
% over line
49%
39%
58%
42%
44%
40%
32%
50%
16%
% under line
51%
61%
42%
58%
56%
60%
68%
50%
84%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.6%
Under 9.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.2%
Under 3.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
44.3%
Under 21.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.62
0.62
0.71
1.07
vs Stronger (19)
0.68
0.74
0.50
0.60
0.89
0.89
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.00
0.83
0.67
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.47
0.27
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
0.50
0.41
0.58
0.33
0.40
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.56
0.62
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
0.68
0.50
0.70
0.44
0.67
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
0.67
0.50
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.80
0.87
0.60
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.88
1.00
0.67
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.05
0.77
0.83
0.58
1.30
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →