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Stranraer vs Spartans Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Stranraer
Stranraer
Vs
21%
25%
54%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Spartans
Spartans
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Stranraer hosts Spartans in a Scotland: League Two match with Spartans favoured to win. Spartans are coming off a defeat, while Stranraer is riding a recent win, having beaten Spartans 1-0 last time out. The model predicts an Away win, with a 54% chance of Spartans winning. The expected total goals is 2.9, with 2 goals being the most likely total.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8% chance. Stranraer's home form is weaker at home, scoring 1 goal on average and conceding 1.2. Spartans' away form is stronger, scoring 1.54 goals on average and conceding 1.38. The model selects Over 1.5 with a 79.6% chance of occurring.

The home win percentage is 21%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 54%. The model's selections are: Away win (54%), Over 1.5 (79.6%), and Stranraer to score (no edge percentage given).

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Stranraer secured a 1-0 home win, extending their run of form that includes a win over Spartans just last week. This result marks the first defeat for Spartans, who were coming off a defeat themselves. The model's selection, Spartans to win away, was incorrect, given their 54% pre-match probability of victory. The model's call was wrong, as Spartans failed to come through. The model's suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, missed with a probability of 79.6%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stranraer win✓ Hit
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartans win✗ Miss
54.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L11D10W23L22D02L03L13L01LA·SPA11/04H·FOR18/04H·STI25/04A·ELG02/05H·AYR11/07A·ALL18/07H·EDI21/07A·FAL25/07A·CLY01/08H·ANN08/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.471.191.251.211.71
vs Stronger (19)1.161.421.001.301.331.56
vs Similar (11)1.271.551.501.171.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpartansSpartans

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D22D02L11D12L13L04L20W42W22DH·ELG25/04A·STI02/05A·CLY05/05H·CLY09/05H·ARB11/07H·STI14/07A·DUN21/07A·MON25/07A·ANN01/08H·EDI08/08← League OneLeague Two →
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.231.330.871.931.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.881.381.000.672.401.80
vs Weaker (22)1.551.181.420.921.701.50
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.3%
0-1
9.1%
0-0
6.6%
1-3
6.0%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
5.7%
Stranraer goals ↓
Spartans goals →
01234
06.6%9.1%9.3%5.7%2.6%
14.8%12%9.9%6.0%2.8%
23.1%5.7%5.2%3.2%1.5%
31.1%2.0%1.9%1.1%0.5%
40.3%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Spartans goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Stranraer is 0.20 points better than Spartans in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Stranraer is 1.20 goals worse than Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 2.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Stranraer is 1.00 goals better than Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

StranraerStranraer

For 7.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.3

🚩 Corners

16034133517681669152731037166139121071013A·FALH·STIH·FORA·SPAH·DUMA·ANNH·CLYA·CLYH·EASA·DUM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1

🟨 Cards

702132541233111233222475262364A·FALH·STIH·FORA·SPAH·DUMA·ANNH·CLYA·CLYH·EASA·DUM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.3

⚠️ Fouls

360141310121191366121312111181415215727222019182522223612A·FALH·STIH·FORA·SPAH·DUMA·ANNH·CLYA·CLYH·EASA·DUM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

SpartansSpartans

For 6.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.8

🚩 Corners

16066934383671156462574312127111316108127A·MONA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRA·EDIH·EASA·FORH·FORH·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

801112321142241112441253544238A·MONA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRA·EDIH·EASA·FORH·FORH·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.9

⚠️ Fouls

330129712191411136131041591010101413821193324191424202421A·MONA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRA·EDIH·EASA·FORH·FORH·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StranraerStranraer

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.910.611.33.02.83.322.723.122.3
vs Stronger (33)10.910.211.72.62.33.123.023.522.5
vs Similar (17)10.911.010.83.84.03.722.222.522.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line61%67%56%46%42%50%58%56%61%
% under line39%33%44%54%58%50%42%44%39%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpartansSpartans

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.48.810.12.93.02.819.921.718.2
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (13)8.37.59.02.52.42.522.926.520.0
vs Weaker (37)9.89.110.43.13.22.919.020.417.6
% over line49%39%58%42%44%40%32%50%16%
% under line51%61%42%58%56%60%68%50%84%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.6%
Under 9.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.2%
Under 3.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
44.3%
Under 21.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StranraerStranraer

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L00D10W10W02L02L13L00DA·SPA11/04H·FOR18/04H·STI25/04A·ELG02/05H·AYR11/07A·ALL18/07H·EDI21/07A·FAL25/07A·CLY01/08H·ANN08/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.830.620.620.711.07
vs Stronger (19)0.680.740.500.600.890.89
vs Similar (11)0.641.000.830.670.401.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpartansSpartans

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D01L10W01L11D01L10W01L01LH·ELG25/04A·STI02/05A·CLY05/05H·CLY09/05H·ARB11/07H·STI14/07A·DUN21/07A·MON25/07A·ANN01/08H·EDI08/08← League OneLeague Two →
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.430.470.270.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.620.500.000.001.000.80
vs Weaker (22)0.500.410.580.330.400.50
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

StranraerStranraer

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L10W10W13L12L00D01L00D01LA·SPA11/04H·FOR18/04H·STI25/04A·ELG02/05H·AYR11/07A·ALL18/07H·EDI21/07A·FAL25/07A·CLY01/08H·ANN08/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.560.620.500.64
vs Stronger (19)0.470.680.500.700.440.67
vs Similar (11)0.640.550.670.500.600.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpartansSpartans

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D22D01L01L11D02L03L10W41W21WH·ELG25/04A·STI02/05A·CLY05/05H·CLY09/05H·ARB11/07H·STI14/07A·DUN21/07A·MON25/07A·ANN01/08H·EDI08/08← League OneLeague Two →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.800.870.601.331.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.250.881.000.671.401.00
vs Weaker (22)1.050.770.830.581.301.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls83.7%--------
Under 5.5 cards81.9%--------
Over 1.579.6%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards72.8%--------
Under 23.5 fouls71.5%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
STR wins
1
Draws
2
SPA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stranraer vs Spartans · H/A from STR
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26ASpartans Vs STR1-2
21/02/26HSTR Vs Spartans2-1
22/11/25ASpartans Vs STR0-4
13/09/25HSTR Vs Spartans0-2
05/04/25ASpartans Vs STR2-1
01/02/25HSTR Vs Spartans2-0
10/12/24ASpartans Vs STR1-3
03/08/24HSTR Vs Spartans2-2

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HSTR Vs Annan Athletic0-1
01/08/26AClyde Vs STR3-1
25/07/26AFalkirk Vs STR3-0
21/07/26HSTR Vs Edinburgh City0-2
18/07/26AAlloa Athletic Vs STR2-2
11/07/26HSTR Vs Ayr Utd2-3
02/05/26AElgin Vs STR0-1
25/04/26HSTR Vs Stirling1-1
18/04/26HSTR Vs Forfar0-1
11/04/26ASpartans Vs STR1-2

SpartansSpartans

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HSPA Vs Edinburgh City2-2
01/08/26AAnnan Athletic Vs SPA2-4
25/07/26AMontrose Vs SPA0-2
21/07/26ADundee Utd Vs SPA4-0
14/07/26HSPA Vs Stirling1-3
11/07/26HSPA Vs Arbroath1-2
09/05/26HSPA Vs Clyde1-1
05/05/26AClyde Vs SPA2-0
02/05/26AStirling Vs SPA2-2
25/04/26HSPA Vs Elgin1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stranraer
Stranraer
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.16
HomeLDLLL1.15
AwayWWDLL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%26%30%
AVG goals2.502.412.61
Over 1.5 %76%78%74%
Over 2.5 %46%37%57%
Over 3.5 %28%22%35%
Scored1.181.191.17
Conceded1.321.221.43
BTTS60%67%52%
Clean Sheet16%11%22%
Corners10.8910.5311.28
Cards4.224.054.39
Spartans
Spartans
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.64
HomeDDLLD1.60
AwayDLLWW1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%44%48%
AVG goals2.822.283.36
Over 1.5 %86%72%100%
Over 2.5 %56%44%68%
Over 3.5 %30%20%40%
Scored1.561.241.88
Conceded1.261.041.48
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners9.438.7810.05
Cards3.954.223.68

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElginElgin511
60%
2.2
175+12
4.4
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.41.0
-
2ClydeClyde510
60%
2.0
116+5
3.4
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3ForfarForfar58
40%
1.6
65+1
2.2
80%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
4Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City58
40%
1.6
78-1
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
5StranraerStranraer57
40%
1.4
66+0
2.4
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
6SpartansSpartans56
20%
1.2
1211+1
4.6
80%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.42.2
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic56
40%
1.2
67-1
2.6
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts56
40%
1.2
710-3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.42.0
-
9StirlingStirling54
20%
0.8
612-6
3.6
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.4
-
10DumbartonDumbarton53
20%
0.6
210-8
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.42.0
-
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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