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Stranraer vs Stirling Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Stranraer
Stranraer
Vs
41%
28%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stirling
Stirling
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Stranraer a 41% win probability against Stirling in the Scotland: League Two on 2026-04-25, with 28% for the draw and 31% for Stirling. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (78%).

Results analysis

Stranraer finished 1-1 against Stirling (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 41% home win, 28% draw and 31% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (78%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Stranraer win✗ Miss
41.4%
Avg Implied 63.8% · @ 1.41
Edge
-22.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.24
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied 14.9% · @ 6.03
Edge
+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L14L02L21W12L31W01L11D21W01LH·ELG28/02A·EDI07/03A·DUM10/03H·EAS14/03A·CLY21/03H·CLY24/03A·ANN28/03H·DUM04/04A·SPA11/04H·FOR18/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.271.271.271.471.27
vs Stronger (20)1.451.301.001.272.001.33
vs Similar (10)1.201.202.001.250.671.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StirlingStirling

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D02L33D03L23L10W13L12L22DH·ANN24/02H·DUM28/02A·SPA03/03A·ANN07/03H·FOR14/03A·EAS21/03H·EDI28/03A·CLY04/04A·DUM11/04H·ELG18/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.731.001.671.471.80
vs Stronger (10)1.001.801.251.500.832.00
vs Similar (16)1.381.440.891.332.001.57
vs Weaker (4)1.252.751.003.501.502.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.59-5.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
@ 2.16+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
7.6%
0-0
7.5%
2-0
7.1%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.7%
Stranraer goals ↓
Stirling goals →
01234
07.5%6.8%5.1%2.1%0.7%
18.2%13%7.6%3.2%1.0%
27.1%9.0%5.7%2.4%0.8%
33.5%4.5%2.8%1.2%0.4%
41.3%1.7%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Stranraer is 0.25 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Stranraer and Stirling are level in goals scored per game (both 1.28).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Stranraer is 0.47 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.75).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

StranraerStranraer

For 6.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

1305176816691527310354566139121071013911H·FORA·SPAH·DUMA·ANNH·CLYA·CLYH·EASA·DUMA·EDIH·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

7025412331112332232117526236452H·FORA·SPAH·DUMA·ANNH·CLYA·CLYH·EASA·DUMA·EDIH·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

36011913661213121111814152157188131220191825222236122625H·FORA·SPAH·DUMA·ANNH·CLYA·CLYH·EASA·DUMA·EDIH·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StirlingStirling

For 3.4 · Against 7.7 · Total 11.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

16043610510761819744482127161513910781214H·ELGA·DUMA·CLYH·EDIA·EASH·FORA·ANNA·SPAH·DUMH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8011322134411354113212524828543H·ELGA·DUMA·CLYH·EDIA·EASH·FORA·ANNA·SPAH·DUMH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

290891111138101061712915141179810717222120232129181717H·ELGA·DUMA·CLYH·EDIA·EASH·FORA·ANNA·SPAH·DUMH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StranraerStranraer

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.19.710.64.24.34.122.322.621.9
vs Stronger (35)10.19.510.84.34.54.222.923.422.3
vs Similar (15)10.210.010.43.93.93.920.720.421.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line56%54%58%58%62%54%50%50%50%
% under line44%46%42%42%38%46%50%50%50%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StirlingStirling

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.810.710.84.13.84.520.820.221.5
vs Stronger (20)10.810.610.94.63.95.320.619.921.2
vs Similar (25)10.811.210.33.83.54.221.320.921.7
vs Weaker (5)10.69.013.03.84.72.519.818.022.5
% over line60%69%50%56%50%62%38%31%46%
% under line40%31%50%44%50%38%62%69%54%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
East Kilbride
10.6
Dumbarton
10.5
Elgin
10.3
Stranraer
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.8
Clyde
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
4.5
Clyde
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dumbarton
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.6
Forfar
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.1
Elgin
22.4
Clyde
22.3
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stirling
20.8
Dumbarton
20.3
Spartans
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.1%
Under 9.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
51.9%
Under 21.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Stranraer vs Stirling · H/A from STR
DateH/AGameScore
31/01/26AStirling Vs STR1-1
06/12/25HSTR Vs Stirling3-2
30/08/25AStirling Vs STR1-0
12/04/25AStirling Vs STR3-1
22/02/25HSTR Vs Stirling3-0
21/12/24AStirling Vs STR1-1
28/09/24HSTR Vs Stirling0-2
18/03/23HSTR Vs Stirling1-1

StranraerStranraer

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HSTR Vs Forfar0-1
11/04/26ASpartans Vs STR1-2
04/04/26HSTR Vs Dumbarton1-1
28/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs STR1-0
24/03/26HSTR Vs Clyde3-1
21/03/26AClyde Vs STR2-1
14/03/26HSTR Vs East Kilbride2-1
10/03/26ADumbarton Vs STR2-0
07/03/26AEdinburgh City Vs STR4-1
28/02/26HSTR Vs Elgin1-2

StirlingStirling

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HSTI Vs Elgin2-2
11/04/26ADumbarton Vs STI2-1
04/04/26AClyde Vs STI3-1
28/03/26HSTI Vs Edinburgh City1-0
21/03/26AEast Kilbride Vs STI3-2
14/03/26HSTI Vs Forfar0-3
07/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs STI3-3
03/03/26ASpartans Vs STI2-0
28/02/26HSTI Vs Dumbarton1-1
24/02/26HSTI Vs Annan Athletic2-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Stranraer
Stranraer
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWL1.24
HomeLWWDL1.31
AwayLLLLW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%35%33%
AVG goals2.502.272.75
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %52%42%62%
Over 3.5 %24%15%33%
Scored1.221.191.25
Conceded1.281.081.50
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet22%23%21%
Corners10.129.6510.62
Cards4.204.314.08
Stirling
Stirling
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.20
HomeWDLWD1.31
AwayLDLLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%35%29%
AVG goals3.002.923.08
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %36%38%33%
Scored1.341.351.33
Conceded1.661.581.75
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet20%23%17%
Corners10.7610.7310.79
Cards4.123.774.50

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1East KilbrideEast Kilbride3669
58%
1.9
7746+31
3.4
92%
69%
50%
10.4
58%
5.6
83%
26.4
81%
0
0002.11.3
-
2SpartansSpartans3664
50%
1.8
6039+21
2.8
83%
53%
28%
9.4
47%
4.0
58%
19.9
33%
0
0001.71.1
-
3ClydeClyde3656
39%
1.6
5841+17
2.8
83%
53%
33%
9.8
42%
4.1
61%
21.4
44%
0
0001.61.1
-
4ForfarForfar3650
36%
1.4
5147+4
2.7
72%
50%
36%
9.2
50%
4.1
58%
23.8
67%
0
0001.41.3
-
5StranraerStranraer3647
33%
1.3
4646+0
2.6
78%
50%
28%
11.0
63%
4.3
66%
22.5
57%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ElginElgin3644
31%
1.2
5155-4
2.9
86%
56%
25%
10.5
60%
4.2
60%
22.8
60%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3641
28%
1.1
4758-11
2.9
78%
56%
36%
9.9
50%
4.4
64%
23.8
72%
0
0001.31.6
-
8DumbartonDumbarton3640
28%
1.1
4761-14
3.0
92%
58%
28%
10.6
54%
3.5
46%
20.8
46%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3639
28%
1.1
4572-27
3.2
86%
69%
44%
9.5
51%
5.2
80%
23.8
66%
0
0001.22.0
-
10StirlingStirling3638
25%
1.1
4663-17
3.0
83%
58%
36%
11.4
58%
4.1
58%
20.7
36%
0
0001.31.8
-
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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