Strasbourg’s recent win streak and a solid home record of 1.92 goals scored and 1.38 conceded set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.2 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% chance. The model favours a home win, with a 58% probability, while a draw sits at 23% and an away win at 19%. Strasbourg’s home form against similar opposition shows they will likely score around two goals and concede fewer than one and a half, whereas Stade Brestois 29, playing away, averages 1.11 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar teams. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 6.5 (95.3%), Home +2 handicap (93.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.3%), Under 5.5 (89.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.3%) and Over 1.5 (83.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Strasbourg win
60.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 win
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Strasbourg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.40
1.75
1.38
1.79
1.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.77
1.45
1.92
1.38
1.56
1.56
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
1.14
1.00
1.00
2.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.63
1.57
1.36
0.94
1.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.33
0.75
0.75
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.53
1.79
1.90
1.60
1.11
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.1%
Under 2.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.6%
2-2
5.3%
0-0
5.0%
Strasbourg goals ↓
Stade Brestois 29 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.4%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.7%
10%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.6%
7.0%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.5%
3.8%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Strasbourg goals (down), columns = Stade Brestois 29 goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Strasbourg is 0.41 points better than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Strasbourg is 0.44 goals better than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Strasbourg is 0.24 goals better than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Strasbourg is 10.4 percentage points better than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of average possession (54% vs 43%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Strasbourg or Draw
82.7%
Avg Implied -
61%
22%
17%
covers Strasbourg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg or Stade Brestois 29
77.9%
Avg Implied -
61%
22%
17%
covers Strasbourg + Stade Brestois 29
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stade Brestois 29
39.3%
Avg Implied -
61%
22%
17%
covers Draw + Stade Brestois 29
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Strasbourg over/under 0.5
Over
88.1%
Under
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 1.5
Over
62.9%
Under
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 2.5
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 3.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Strasbourg, so a minus line means Strasbourg give that many goals of a start and Stade Brestois 29 receive them. At -1, Strasbourg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Strasbourg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Strasbourg)
Strasbourg -2
19.9%
Draw -2
18.6%
Stade Brestois 29 +2
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Strasbourg)
Strasbourg -1
38.5%
Draw -1
22.2%
Stade Brestois 29 +1
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Strasbourg)
Strasbourg +1
82.7%
Draw +1
10.7%
Stade Brestois 29 -1
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Strasbourg)
Strasbourg +2
93.4%
Draw +2
4.7%
Stade Brestois 29 -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Strasbourg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.81
0.62
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.55
0.77
0.54
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.57
1.00
1.00
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.86
0.71
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.84
0.90
0.80
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Strasbourg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Strasbourg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
0.94
0.75
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.91
1.15
0.85
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.57
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.71
0.64
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.56
0.00
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.95
1.00
0.80
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Strasbourg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Strasbourg's squad is €240m more valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€304m vs €64m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Strasbourg's attack is €87m more valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€112m vs €25m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Strasbourg's midfield is €36m more valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€56m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Strasbourg's defence is €117m more valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€136m vs €19m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →