In the Norway: 1. Division, Stromsgodset hosts Egersund on August 9. Recent form suggests both teams are coming off wins, with Stromsgodset beating Bryne 2-0 and Egersund defeating Sandnes ULF 2-0. This high-scoring match is expected to see 3.2 goals on average, with the most likely total being 3 goals.
Stromsgodset's home form against stronger opponents is concerning, averaging 1 goal scored and 2.38 conceded. On the other hand, Egersund's away form against weaker opponents is impressive, averaging 2 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The model's selection is the Home win, with a 38% chance of occurring.
The model predicts a 1-1 scoreline with a 11.5% probability. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 84% chance of occurring. The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 37%.
Results analysis
Stromsgodset's 0-2 loss to Egersund extends their recent form woes, coming off a defeat and now having lost two games in a row. The upset victory for Egersund was a surprise, as they were the pre-match favourite to win at home. The model correctly identified Stromsgodset as the favourite, but unfortunately, its call was wrong. The model's selection, a home win, had a 38% chance of occurring. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit, with a probability of 84%. The most likely outcome was a 1-1 draw, but the actual result was a 0-2 away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stromsgodset win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied 63.8% · @ 1.43
Edge
-26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Dafabet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 4.83
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.16
BetVictor
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Egersund win✓ Hit
36.7%
Avg Implied 17.3% · @ 5.29
Edge
+19.4%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.75
Pinnacle
5.72
1xBet
5.58
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stromsgodset
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.40
1.07
2.20
1.33
2.60
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
2.75
1.17
2.50
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.39
2.17
1.00
2.00
1.78
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egersund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.23
1.75
1.25
2.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.80
1.32
1.62
1.46
2.00
1.17
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
0.80
2.33
0.33
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
@ 1.06-3.7%
Under 1.5
16.0%
@ 7.52+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Under
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
BetVictor
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.1%
@ 1.27-10.7%
Under 2.5
37.9%
@ 3.41+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Pinnacle
3.53
10Bet
3.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.8%
@ 1.73-14.1%
Under 3.5
60.2%
@ 2.03+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.8%
@ 1.38-1.8%
No
35.2%
@ 2.76+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
No
BetVictor
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Betfair
2.80
888Sport
2.80
1xBet
2.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 9.98+7.0%
2-1
8.4%@ 7.97+2.9%
1-2
8.3%@ 15.66+5.5%
2-2
6.7%@ 11.75+2.9%
1-0
5.5%@ 12.70+2.0%
0-1
5.4%@ 25.19+3.7%
2-0
5.3%@ 10.23+1.0%
0-2 ✓
5.1%@ 38.41+4.0%
Stromsgodset goals ↓
Egersund goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.4%
5.1%
2.7%
1.1%
1
5.5%
11%
8.3%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.4%
6.7%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.8%
4.5%
3.6%
1.9%
0.8%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stromsgodset goals (down), columns = Egersund goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Stromsgodset is 0.29 points better than Egersund in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Stromsgodset is 0.43 goals better than Egersund in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Stromsgodset is 0.14 goals better than Egersund in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stromsgodset
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.60
1.00
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.58
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.83
0.56
0.78
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egersund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.56
0.38
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.44
0.54
0.46
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stromsgodset
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.27
0.47
1.20
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.50
1.17
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.33
0.44
1.22
1.22
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egersund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.80
1.19
0.88
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.88
1.08
1.00
1.08
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.40
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-3.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stromsgodset · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonas Therkelsen29%
Marko Farji24%
Jesper Taaje15%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Alie Conteh12%
Logi Tomasson11%
Herman Stengel10%
Nikolaj Möller10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Gustav Valsvik7%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl7%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Marcus Mehnert5%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Elias Hoff Melkersen0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
James Ampofo0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Johan Johanessen Bakke25%
Logi Tomasson22%
Marko Farji21%
Jesper Taaje19%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa17%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Gustav Valsvik14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
James Ampofo8%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Bent Sormo5%
Per Kristian Bråtveit4%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl3%
Eirik Johansen0%
Herman Stengel0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Alie Conteh0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gustav Wikheim21%
James Ampofo17%
Marko Farji14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik11%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl10%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa10%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Johan Johanessen Bakke6%
Alie Conteh6%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Logi Tomasson0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alie Conteh31%
Marko Farji28%
Logi Tomasson22%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Gustav Wikheim0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Marcus Mehnert0%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
James Ampofo0%
Ole Kristian Enersen0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Stromsgodset's squad is €2m more valuable than Egersund's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Stromsgodset's attack is €2m more valuable than Egersund's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Stromsgodset and Egersund have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Stromsgodset and Egersund have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →