Stromsgodset face Kongsvinger in a match that the model favours an away win, with a 45% chance of victory for the visitors, 29% for the hosts and 26% for a draw. The expected total of 3.1 goals sits above the model’s most likely total of two, which carries a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, with an 11.8% chance. Stromsgodset, on a four-game winning streak, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded at home against similarly strong opponents. Kongsvinger, fresh from a 4-4 draw, averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded on the road versus comparable teams. The suggested picks highlight a very high likelihood of low scoring: Under 7.5 (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Under 5.5 (90.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.3%), Away +2 handicap (86.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (84.1%) and Over 1.5 (82.5%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stromsgodset win
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger win
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stromsgodset
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.20
1.29
2.07
1.69
2.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
2.75
1.17
2.50
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.65
1.94
1.38
1.75
1.89
2.11
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.57
2.20
1.93
2.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.00
1.90
2.08
2.25
1.89
1.44
vs Weaker (9)
3.00
0.78
2.67
0.67
3.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.4%
No
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.3%
0-1
6.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.6%
1-3
5.3%
Stromsgodset goals ↓
Kongsvinger goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
6.7%
6.7%
3.9%
1.7%
1
5.1%
12%
9.2%
5.3%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.3%
6.3%
3.6%
1.6%
3
2.0%
3.4%
2.9%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stromsgodset goals (down), columns = Kongsvinger goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Ranheim
0.50
Raufoss
0.50
Moss
0.29
Stromsgodset is 0.31 points worse than Kongsvinger in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Stromsgodset is 0.69 goals worse than Kongsvinger in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Stromsgodset is 0.26 goals better than Kongsvinger in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stromsgodset or Draw
55.3%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
45%
covers Stromsgodset + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset or Kongsvinger
74.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
45%
covers Stromsgodset + Kongsvinger
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kongsvinger
70.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
45%
covers Draw + Kongsvinger
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5
Over
74.7%
Under
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5
Over
39.9%
Under
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stromsgodset, so a minus line means Stromsgodset give that many goals of a start and Kongsvinger receive them. At -1, Stromsgodset must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stromsgodset win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stromsgodset)
Stromsgodset -2
4.8%
Draw -2
8.8%
Kongsvinger +2
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stromsgodset)
Stromsgodset -1
13.6%
Draw -1
16.0%
Kongsvinger +1
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stromsgodset)
Stromsgodset +1
55.3%
Draw +1
20.4%
Kongsvinger -1
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stromsgodset)
Stromsgodset +2
75.6%
Draw +2
13.8%
Kongsvinger -2
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stromsgodset
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.57
1.00
0.94
1.12
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.58
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.76
0.50
0.75
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.87
0.93
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.78
0.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stromsgodset
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.13
0.71
1.07
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.50
1.17
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.18
0.88
1.00
1.11
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.97
1.33
1.00
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.24
1.25
1.25
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stromsgodset · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonas Therkelsen29%
Marko Farji24%
Jesper Taaje15%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Alie Conteh12%
Logi Tomasson11%
Herman Stengel10%
Nikolaj Möller10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Gustav Valsvik7%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl7%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Marcus Mehnert5%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Elias Hoff Melkersen0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
James Ampofo0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Johan Johanessen Bakke25%
Logi Tomasson22%
Marko Farji21%
Jesper Taaje19%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa17%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Gustav Valsvik14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
James Ampofo8%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Bent Sormo5%
Per Kristian Bråtveit4%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl3%
Eirik Johansen0%
Herman Stengel0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Alie Conteh0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gustav Wikheim21%
James Ampofo17%
Marko Farji14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik11%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl10%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa10%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Johan Johanessen Bakke6%
Alie Conteh6%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Logi Tomasson0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alie Conteh31%
Marko Farji28%
Logi Tomasson22%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Gustav Wikheim0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Marcus Mehnert0%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
James Ampofo0%
Ole Kristian Enersen0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Stromsgodset's squad is €1m more valuable than Kongsvinger's (€7m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Stromsgodset and Kongsvinger have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Stromsgodset and Kongsvinger have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Stromsgodset and Kongsvinger have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss