Sturm Graz II are coming off a win, but their recent form has been inconsistent, with four losses in their last five matches. Admira Wacker, on the other hand, are seeking to bounce back from two straight defeats. The model favours an away win, predicting a 37% chance of victory for Admira Wacker.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The model's most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. Sturm Graz II have struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.25 goals and conceding 1.25 goals per match against stronger opponents. Admira Wacker have averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded as away visitors against weaker opponents.
The model's selections are Over 1.5 with a 75.7% probability, and Under 3.5 with a 72.2% probability, where the model has an 8% edge. The home team has a 34% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 37% chance of losing.
The away form of Admira Wacker continued its upward trend, coming off a win against Sturm Graz II, and this momentum carried over to the match at hand. The actual result was an away win, as predicted by the model, with the final score being 0-2. The model's call was correct, as Admira Wacker was the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 37% for an away win. The model's selection of an away win landed, and the suggested picks largely came in, with the Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 selections both hitting, with probabilities of 75.7% and 72.2% respectively.
Sturm Graz II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.77 | 1.19 | 1.88 | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.11 | 1.79 | 1.27 | 1.93 | 0.92 | 1.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-16pp vs league) | |||||
Admira Wacker| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.10 | 2.00 | 1.07 | 1.50 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.77 | 1.04 | 1.92 | 1.17 | 1.64 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
| Admira Wacker goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 14% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Sturm Graz II
Admira Wacker
Sturm Graz II| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Admira Wacker| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 22.5 | 25.0 | 21.1 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 23.0 | - | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (44) | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 22.5 | 25.0 | 20.8 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 18% | 25% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 15% | 64% | 75% | 57% |
| % under line | 82% | 75% | 86% | 88% | 92% | 85% | 36% | 25% | 43% |
Sturm Graz II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.62 | 0.94 | 0.43 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.57 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.93 | 0.46 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
Admira Wacker| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.92 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Sturm Graz II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.83 | 0.56 | 0.94 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.54 | 0.89 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Admira Wacker| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.57 | 1.07 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.04 | 0.54 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.07 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 86.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.0% | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | +13.9% | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 79.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 75.7% | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -2.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.2% | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.44 | +7.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 26/10/24 | H | 3-1 | |
| 31/03/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 01/09/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/05/23 | H | 2-5 | |
| 09/09/22 | A | 1-2 |
Sturm Graz II| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-1 |
Admira Wacker| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | FC Liefering | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 3 | First Vienna | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 4 | Floridsdorfer AC | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 80% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Austria Salzburg | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Wacker Innsbruck | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 9 | Admira Wacker | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | SKU Amstetten | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Sturm Graz II | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 4.6 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.6 | - |
| 12 | Rapid Wien II | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Voitsberg | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | SKN ST. Polten | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.4 | - |