Floridsdorfer AC is expected to emerge victorious in this Austria: 2. Liga match against Sturm Graz II, with a predicted score of 0-1, a 12.4% chance of occurrence. The expected total number of goals in the match is 2.5. Sturm Graz II struggles to score at home, averaging 0.17 goals per game, while conceding 1.5 goals on average. Meanwhile, Floridsdorfer AC excels when playing away, scoring an average of 2.67 goals and conceding just 0.17 goals.
The model's selection for the match result is an Away win, with a 57% chance of occurrence. There is a 26% probability of a draw. Sturm Graz II has a 17% chance of winning. The model's selection for Under 3.5 goals has a 75.3% probability, and its selection for Over 1.5 goals has a 72.8% probability.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came in the Austria: 2. Liga match between Sturm Graz II and Floridsdorfer AC, where the home team secured a 4-2 win, defying the pre-match favourite Floridsdorfer AC's 57% chance of victory. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect. The model's call for Under 3.5 goals in the match also missed, with a probability of 75.3%, while the selection for Over 1.5 goals hit, as expected, with a 72.8% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sturm Graz II win✓ Hit
17.2%
Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.28
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Pinnacle
4.38
Unibet
4.35
Superbet
4.35
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.58
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.72
Betano
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
Floridsdorfer AC win✗ Miss
56.5%
Avg Implied 53.0% · @ 1.73
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
888Sport
1.75
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sturm Graz II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.77
1.00
1.87
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.96
1.79
1.07
1.93
0.86
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.73
1.31
0.94
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
1.39
0.68
1.27
1.00
1.54
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.8%
@ 1.28+0.3%
Under 1.5
27.2%
@ 3.37-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.47
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.89-3.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.84+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.94
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.7%
@ 3.25-3.9%
Under 3.5
75.3%
@ 1.30+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
888Sport
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Under
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.2%
@ 1.81-3.6%
No
52.8%
@ 1.87+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.87
William Hil
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.83
No
Betfair
1.95
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.5%@ 6.17+5.4%
1-1
12.4%@ 6.26+5.5%
0-2
11.5%@ 7.32+5.5%
1-2
9.5%@ 7.28+3.6%
0-0
9.2%@ 9.31+4.5%
0-3
6.4%@ 12.35+2.9%
1-0
5.6%@ 10.55+1.5%
1-3
5.4%@ 12.25+1.8%
Sturm Graz II goals ↓
Floridsdorfer AC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
12%
11%
6.4%
2.7%
1
5.6%
12%
9.5%
5.4%
2.3%
2
2.8%
4.7%
4.0%
2.2%
0.9%
3
0.8%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sturm Graz II goals (down), columns = Floridsdorfer AC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC BW Linz
2.40
Floridsdorfer AC
2.00
First Vienna
2.00
FC Liefering
2.00
Austria Salzburg
1.80
Wacker Innsbruck
1.80
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.80
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.40
Rapid Wien II
1.20
Sturm Graz II
1.20
Admira Wacker
1.20
SKU Amstetten
1.20
Voitsberg
1.00
WSPG Wels
0.80
SKN ST. Polten
0.60
SV Kapfenberg
0.60
Sturm Graz II is 0.80 points worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Liefering
2.60
FC BW Linz
2.60
Sturm Graz II
2.00
Austria Salzburg
2.00
Floridsdorfer AC
1.80
First Vienna
1.80
Voitsberg
1.40
Wacker Innsbruck
1.40
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.40
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.20
SV Kapfenberg
1.20
Rapid Wien II
1.20
WSPG Wels
1.20
Admira Wacker
1.20
SKU Amstetten
1.20
SKN ST. Polten
0.20
Sturm Graz II is 0.20 goals better than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC BW Linz
0.60
SKN ST. Polten
0.80
Wacker Innsbruck
1.00
Admira Wacker
1.00
Floridsdorfer AC
1.20
First Vienna
1.20
SKU Amstetten
1.20
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.20
Austria Salzburg
1.40
FC Liefering
1.60
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.00
Voitsberg
2.00
WSPG Wels
2.00
Rapid Wien II
2.20
SV Kapfenberg
2.40
Sturm Graz II
2.60
Sturm Graz II is 1.40 goals worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.60 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sturm Graz II
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Floridsdorfer AC
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Sturm Graz II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
9.7
5.0
1.3
1.8
0.7
26.5
30.3
21.2
vs Stronger (3)
7.0
-
7.0
1.0
0.0
1.5
28.0
-
28.0
vs Similar (46)
7.8
9.7
4.5
1.3
1.9
0.7
26.4
30.3
19.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
43%
0%
16%
24%
8%
83%
100%
60%
% under line
75%
57%
100%
84%
76%
92%
17%
0%
40%
This opponent (Sturm Graz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SKN ST. Polten
10.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.5
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.2
First Vienna
10.1
Floridsdorfer AC
10.0
Rapid Wien II
9.7
Voitsberg
9.0
FC BW Linz
8.8
Admira Wacker
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
Voitsberg
5.7
SKN ST. Polten
5.5
Floridsdorfer AC
5.4
SKU Amstetten
5.3
First Vienna
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
Admira Wacker
4.7
FC BW Linz
4.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.3
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
First Vienna
26.4
Floridsdorfer AC
26.0
Voitsberg
25.3
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.2
FC Liefering
25.1
SV Kapfenberg
24.1
SKU Amstetten
23.8
Rapid Wien II
23.8
Admira Wacker
23.3
SKN ST. Polten
22.5
FC BW Linz
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.2%
@ 1.86-6.9%
Under 9.5
56.8%
@ 1.86+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Bet365
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.6%
Under 3.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.4%
Under 21.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sturm Graz II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.86
0.57
0.86
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.10
0.75
0.19
0.71
0.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.11
0.73
0.20
0.77
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
90% (+64pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sturm Graz II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sturm Graz II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.93
0.50
1.07
0.43
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.56
0.75
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.57
0.53
0.80
0.77
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sturm Graz II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.9%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
-
-
+9.0%
-
Under 3.5
75.3%
1.30
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.8%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€5m
FBL (21)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
AS (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
WW (19)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
Sturm Graz II and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
RWI (12)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
WW (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
AS (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
Sturm Graz II and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FBL (4)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
WW (4)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
AS (4)
€1m
Sturm Graz II and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AV( (11)
€2m
AS (11)
€2m
FBL (8)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
WW (8)
€1m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
Sturm Graz II and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →