Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Result & Analysis

Sturm Graz face a likely away win as the model favours Red Bull Salzburg taking the match, with a 42% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, with the most probable total being two goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% probability. Sturm Graz, playing at home against a team of similar strength, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded, while Salzburg, on the road against a comparable opponent, average 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 78.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 74.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.1% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.8%. The home win probability is 30%, the draw 28% and the away win 42%.

The pre-match favourite, Red Bull Salzburg, did not deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The Pythia model had given Salzburg a 42% chance of victory, yet the game ended in a stalemate, with both sides scoring once. Sturm Graz, coming off a defeat, and Salzburg, on a four-game winning run, produced a balanced contest. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 11.5 corners hit at 78.4%, Under 5.5 cards missed at 77.9%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 76.8%, Over 1.5 hit at 76.0%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 74.1%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 73.1%, and Under 3.5 hit at 71.8%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages.