This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.23
1.38
1.25
0.93
1.21
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.54
1.12
1.38
1.00
1.80
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.00
1.57
1.14
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.8%
Under 1.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.5%
@ 2.81-3.8%
Under 2.5
70.5%
@ 1.40+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.4%
Under 3.5
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.5%
No
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
16.4%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.2%
0-1
11.7%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
5.6%
Sudtirol goals ↓
Cittadella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
12%
5.6%
1.6%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
8.0%
6.9%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
3
2.7%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sudtirol goals (down), columns = Cittadella goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Sudtirol is 0.03 points better than Cittadella in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Sudtirol is 0.16 goals better than Cittadella in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Sudtirol is 0.03 goals worse than Cittadella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Sudtirol is 1.1 percentage points better than Cittadella in terms of average possession (48% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sudtirol
For 4.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 14.3 · Total 30.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
For 5.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 14.2 · Total 29.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sudtirol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
7.8
9.4
3.6
3.5
3.7
30.1
30.4
29.8
vs Stronger (10)
8.0
7.0
9.3
3.9
5.0
2.8
31.0
33.0
28.3
vs Similar (33)
8.9
7.0
10.5
3.3
2.7
3.8
29.4
28.9
29.8
vs Weaker (7)
8.5
11.3
5.7
4.7
5.0
4.5
31.2
31.3
31.0
% over line
36%
25%
47%
56%
50%
62%
91%
88%
94%
% under line
64%
75%
53%
44%
50%
38%
9%
12%
6%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
7.9
10.0
3.3
3.3
3.3
31.1
31.4
30.7
vs Stronger (20)
9.8
9.0
10.8
3.2
3.0
3.6
29.5
29.5
29.5
vs Similar (28)
8.3
6.6
9.8
3.2
3.3
3.1
32.4
32.6
32.1
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
6.5
8.0
5.0
31.0
37.0
25.0
% over line
42%
35%
50%
54%
58%
50%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
58%
65%
50%
46%
42%
50%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Venezia
10.4
Ternana
10.4
Parma
10.3
Palermo
10.1
Cremonese
9.9
Brescia
9.9
Modena
9.8
Bari
9.8
Spezia
9.7
Lecco
9.6
Cosenza
9.6
Pisa
9.6
FeralpiSalo
9.5
Ascoli
9.4
Reggiana
9.4
Como
9.3
Catanzaro
9.1
Cittadella
9.0
Sampdoria
8.7
Sudtirol
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.3
Pisa
6.3
Cittadella
5.9
Spezia
5.8
Modena
5.8
Lecco
5.7
Sampdoria
5.6
Ascoli
5.6
Bari
5.5
Sudtirol
5.5
Reggiana
5.4
Catanzaro
5.4
Parma
5.4
Cremonese
5.3
FeralpiSalo
5.2
Palermo
5.2
Como
5.1
Brescia
5.0
Venezia
5.0
Ternana
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
32.2
Ascoli
31.8
Sampdoria
30.2
Sudtirol
30.1
Reggiana
30.0
Spezia
29.5
Bari
29.4
Como
29.2
Palermo
29.0
Catanzaro
28.9
Pisa
28.6
Modena
28.5
Brescia
28.1
Lecco
28.1
Cosenza
27.5
Cremonese
27.4
Ternana
27.3
Parma
27.0
FeralpiSalo
26.6
Venezia
25.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.1%
Under 9.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
75.4%
Under 3.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.2%
Under 21.5
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sudtirol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.47
0.21
0.29
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.00
0.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.39
0.43
0.29
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.56
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.77
0.50
0.62
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.40
1.14
0.43
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sudtirol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sudtirol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.71
0.64
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.25
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.72
1.00
0.57
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.80
0.67
0.33
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.62
0.69
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.77
0.62
0.75
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.60
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sudtirol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
70.5%
1.40
-
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sudtirol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniele Casiraghi36%
Raphael Odogwu26%
Emanuele Pecorino15%
Hamza El Kaouakibi14%
Silvio Merkaj12%
Fabian Tait12%
Riccardo Ciervo7%
Jasmin Kurtić7%
Salvatore Molina7%
Kevin Vinetot6%
Andrea Masiello6%
Nicola Rauti4%
Daouda Peeters0%
Luca Ghiringhelli0%
Alessandro Mallamo0%
Giacomo Poluzzi0%
Giuseppe Cuomo0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Jérémie Broh0%
Filippo Scaglia0%
Matteo Rover0%
Andrea Cagnano0%
Tommaso Arrigoni0%
Andrea Cisco0%
Simone Davì0%
Andrea Giorgini0%
Lorenzo Lonardi0%
Raphael Kofler0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tommaso Arrigoni41%
Luca Ghiringhelli40%
Simone Davì31%
Andrea Masiello26%
Daouda Peeters21%
Fabian Tait21%
Alessandro Mallamo20%
Giuseppe Cuomo20%
Filippo Scaglia20%
Daniele Casiraghi19%
Andrea Cagnano18%
Nicola Rauti17%
Emanuele Pecorino15%
Silvio Merkaj15%
Jasmin Kurtić14%
Hamza El Kaouakibi14%
Raphael Kofler13%
Raphael Odogwu13%
Kevin Vinetot12%
Andrea Giorgini12%
Matteo Rover11%
Andrea Cisco11%
Gabriel Lunetta8%
Salvatore Molina7%
Jérémie Broh6%
Giacomo Poluzzi5%
Riccardo Ciervo4%
Lorenzo Lonardi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniele Casiraghi19%
Hamza El Kaouakibi14%
Fabian Tait12%
Simone Davì9%
Riccardo Ciervo7%
Jasmin Kurtić7%
Silvio Merkaj6%
Tommaso Arrigoni6%
Nicola Rauti4%
Raphael Odogwu3%
Andrea Giorgini3%
Andrea Masiello0%
Daouda Peeters0%
Luca Ghiringhelli0%
Alessandro Mallamo0%
Giacomo Poluzzi0%
Emanuele Pecorino0%
Giuseppe Cuomo0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Kevin Vinetot0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Jérémie Broh0%
Filippo Scaglia0%
Matteo Rover0%
Andrea Cagnano0%
Andrea Cisco0%
Lorenzo Lonardi0%
Raphael Kofler0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Raphael Odogwu10%
Daniele Casiraghi8%
Andrea Giorgini6%
Silvio Merkaj6%
Emanuele Pecorino4%
Riccardo Ciervo4%
Andrea Masiello0%
Daouda Peeters0%
Luca Ghiringhelli0%
Alessandro Mallamo0%
Giacomo Poluzzi0%
Jasmin Kurtić0%
Giuseppe Cuomo0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Fabian Tait0%
Kevin Vinetot0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Jérémie Broh0%
Filippo Scaglia0%
Matteo Rover0%
Andrea Cagnano0%
Hamza El Kaouakibi0%
Tommaso Arrigoni0%
Andrea Cisco0%
Nicola Rauti0%
Simone Davì0%
Lorenzo Lonardi0%
Raphael Kofler0%
Cittadella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Filippo Pittarello14%
Alessio Vita11%
Stefano Negro10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Tommy Maistrello9%
Enrico Baldini9%
Francesco Amatucci7%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Simone Branca6%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Nicola Pavan3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simone Branca47%
Federico Giraudo37%
Stefano Negro35%
Alessandro Salvi34%
Edoardo Sottini29%
Enrico Baldini27%
Lorenzo Carissoni27%
Matteo Angeli25%
Francesco Amatucci18%
Andrea Tessiore17%
Giuseppe Carriero13%
Valerio Mastrantonio12%
Filippo Pittarello11%
Alessio Rizza11%
Domenico Frare10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Nicola Pavan10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Alessio Vita9%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Luca Maniero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alessio Vita11%
Federico Giraudo11%
Alessandro Salvi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Lorenzo Carissoni9%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Filippo Pittarello9%
Simone Branca6%
Stefano Negro5%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Valerio Mastrantonio4%
Nicola Pavan3%
Tommy Maistrello3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Giuseppe Carriero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filippo Pittarello23%
Luca Pandolfi15%
Stefano Negro10%
Alessio Vita9%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Andrea Magrassi3%
Claudio Cassano3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Simone Branca0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Sampdoria
Brescia
Cosenza
Modena
Reggiana
Pisa
Bari
Ternana
Spezia
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo
Lecco