Sudtirol hosts Virtus Entella in Italy's Serie B on August 22. Recent form suggests Sudtirol is coming off a draw, while Virtus Entella is coming off a win. Sudtirol's home form is relatively even, scoring 0.73 goals and conceding 0.82 per match against similar opponents. Virtus Entella's away form is also even, scoring 0.57 goals and conceding 1.29 per match against similar opponents.
The match is expected to be low-scoring, with an average of 2.1 goals expected. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.5%. The most likely total number of goals is 2.
The model predicts Sudtirol to win with a 42% chance, a draw with 32% chance, and Virtus Entella to win with 26% chance. The model's selection is a home win. Sudtirol is expected to score 0.73 goals and concede 0.82 per match at home, while Virtus Entella is expected to score 0.57 goals and concede 1.29 per match away against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (94%), Under 3.5 (84%), and Home or Draw (82%). Sudtirol has a 42% chance of winning, a 32% chance of a draw, and a 26% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Sudtirol’s recent win extended their good run, while Virtus Entella entered after a defeat. The model’s favourite was a home win with a 42 % probability, and it proved correct as Sudtirol edged 1-0. The predicted 2-goal total also materialised. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %), Under 5.5 (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8 %), and Over 19.5 fouls (97.2 %). The model’s selections were largely accurate, confirming the predicted outcome and the low-scoring nature of the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sudtirol win✓ Hit
41.6%
Avg Implied 45.1% · @ 2.07
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.15
Superbet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Draw✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 3.02
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.20
Bet365
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Virtus Entella win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.92
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.27
Betano
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Dafabet
4.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sudtirol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
0.80
0.93
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
1.15
0.85
1.00
0.93
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus Entella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.33
1.33
0.93
0.47
1.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.57
0.86
1.00
0.57
2.14
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.12
1.75
0.88
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.9%
@ 1.47-0.6%
Under 1.5
37.1%
@ 2.56+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Under
Betano
2.70
Pinnacle
2.66
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.57
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.6%
@ 2.49-3.2%
Under 2.5
65.4%
@ 1.51+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.8%
@ 4.83-3.5%
Under 3.5
84.2%
@ 1.16+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.10
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.4%
@ 2.09-2.0%
No
57.6%
@ 1.67+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.15
Superbet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
No
Betano
1.75
888Sport
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.72+6.8%
0-0
13.8%@ 6.58+7.0%
1-0 ✓
13.5%@ 5.49+5.4%
0-1
9.8%@ 8.06+4.2%
2-0
8.8%@ 8.28+3.5%
2-1
7.9%@ 8.78+2.8%
1-2
5.9%@ 13.00+2.5%
0-2
4.9%@ 17.47+2.4%
Sudtirol goals ↓
Virtus Entella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.8%
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.8%
7.9%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.5%
3.1%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sudtirol goals (down), columns = Virtus Entella goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Sudtirol is 0.03 points worse than Virtus Entella in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Sudtirol is 0.00 goals better than Virtus Entella in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Sudtirol is 0.14 goals better than Virtus Entella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Sudtirol is 5.3 percentage points worse than Virtus Entella in terms of average possession (41% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sudtirol
For 4.0 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.2 · Against 14.8 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Virtus Entella
For 4.3 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 15.0 · Total 31.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sudtirol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
9.5
7.6
4.3
4.5
4.0
30.7
29.8
31.5
vs Stronger (5)
7.2
9.5
5.7
3.4
3.0
3.7
28.8
31.0
27.3
vs Similar (44)
8.6
9.4
7.8
4.2
4.4
4.0
30.8
29.4
32.1
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
13.0
-
11.0
11.0
-
37.0
37.0
-
% over line
34%
52%
16%
58%
56%
60%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
66%
48%
84%
42%
44%
40%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus Entella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
9.9
4.3
4.8
3.8
29.9
30.0
29.8
vs Stronger (18)
10.8
11.1
10.4
4.2
5.0
3.3
28.8
30.8
26.8
vs Similar (32)
9.7
9.8
9.6
4.4
4.7
4.1
30.5
29.5
31.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
64%
68%
64%
76%
52%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
34%
36%
32%
36%
24%
48%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Carrarese
10.4
Virtus Entella
10.1
Padova
10.1
Empoli
9.5
Mantova
9.5
Palermo
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Cremonese
9.1
Avellino
9.1
Juve Stabia
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Modena
8.8
Hellas Verona
8.7
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.2
Mantova
5.2
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.9
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.8
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Virtus Entella
4.4
Sudtirol
4.3
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.1
Hellas Verona
4.1
Pisa
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.8
Ascoli
32.6
Avellino
31.2
Catanzaro
30.8
Sudtirol
30.7
Juve Stabia
30.2
Vicenza Virtus
29.9
Empoli
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Padova
29.2
Modena
28.7
Benevento
28.6
Palermo
28.3
Cremonese
28.3
Carrarese
28.2
Cesena
26.2
Hellas Verona
25.8
Pisa
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Unibet
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Superbet
2.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.52
Under
Superbet
2.25
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sudtirol or Draw✓ Hit
81.8%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
+6.1%
42%
32%
26%
covers Sudtirol + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Sudtirol or Virtus Entella✓ Hit
68.1%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
-1.6%
42%
32%
26%
covers Sudtirol + Virtus Entella
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Draw or Virtus Entella✗ Miss
50.1%
Avg Implied 54.6% · @ 1.71
Edge
-4.5%
42%
32%
26%
covers Draw + Virtus Entella
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
SBO
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.72
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sudtirol over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.0%
@ 1.29+0.1%
Under
28.0%
@ 3.30-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.49
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Sudtirol over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 2.44-1.8%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.50+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
BetVictor
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Sudtirol over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 5.77-2.5%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.11+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
6.00
1xBet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Sudtirol over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 15.19-2.3%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
48.5%
@ 1.61-9.1%
Under
51.5%
@ 2.20+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
14.3%
@ 4.04-8.7%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.21+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.45
Marathonbet
4.05
888Sport
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 11.54-5.3%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.04+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Virtus Entella over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 39.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
37.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sudtirol, so a minus line means Sudtirol give that many goals of a start and Virtus Entella receive them. At -1, Sudtirol must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sudtirol win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sudtirol)Actual: Virtus Entella
Sudtirol -2
8.5%
@ 9.66-0.8%
Draw -2
15.3%
@ 5.87+0.0%
Virtus Entella +2
76.2%
@ 1.19+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Unibet
8.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.70
Unibet
5.40
Away
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Sudtirol)Actual: Draw
Sudtirol -1
23.8%
@ 4.09+1.9%
Draw -1
26.1%
@ 3.49+0.4%
Virtus Entella +1
50.1%
@ 1.71-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Draw
Marathonbet
3.64
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Away
Unibet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Handicap +1 (Sudtirol)Actual: Sudtirol
Sudtirol +1
81.8%
@ 1.23+10.2%
Draw +1
13.0%
@ 4.87-5.1%
Virtus Entella -1
5.2%
@ 8.63-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.10
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.40
10Bet
8.00
Handicap +2 (Sudtirol)Actual: Sudtirol
Sudtirol +2
94.8%
@ 1.04+4.6%
Draw +2
4.2%
@ 13.50-2.8%
Virtus Entella -2
1.0%
@ 33.50-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sudtirol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.63
0.33
0.53
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.37
0.67
0.38
0.62
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus Entella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.57
0.40
0.33
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.64
0.14
0.29
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.50
0.62
0.38
0.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
64.2%
@ 1.54+3.6%
Under 0.5
35.8%
@ 2.37-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Under
William Hil
2.45
Pinnacle
2.43
Superbet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.9%
@ 3.57+1.8%
Under 1.5
72.1%
@ 1.26-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.5%
@ 10.05+1.1%
Under 2.5
89.5%
@ 1.04-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
11.00
William Hil
11.00
Bet365
11.00
BetVictor
10.00
Marathonbet
9.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.05
BetVictor
1.02
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sudtirol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.3%
@ 2.09+0.9%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.67-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Sudtirol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 6.62-1.6%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.08+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Sudtirol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 20.00-2.6%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.7%
@ 2.85+3.1%
Under
64.3%
@ 1.38-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.08
Superbet
2.85
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.84
Betano
2.82
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.37
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 10.25-1.9%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 50.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sudtirol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.48
0.46
0.38
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus Entella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus Entella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.93
0.60
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.93
0.71
0.71
0.00
1.14
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.62
1.12
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.0%
Under 1.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.1%
Under 2.5
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sudtirol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.1%
Under
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Entella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
95.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.05
BetVictor
1.02
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
85.7%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.2%
1.16
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.8%
1.24
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.8%
1.23
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.2%
1.19
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.1%
1.26
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
1xBet
1.30
+0.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sudtirol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simone Davì33%
Alessandro Plizzari0%
Bjarki Bjarkason0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Vasco Lopes0%
Aljoša Vasić0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Rareș Burnete0%
Davide Veroli0%
Riccardo Stivanello0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simone Davì33%
Vasco Lopes33%
Aljoša Vasić33%
Alessandro Plizzari0%
Bjarki Bjarkason0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Rareș Burnete0%
Davide Veroli0%
Riccardo Stivanello0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aljoša Vasić33%
Simone Tronchin33%
Alessandro Plizzari0%
Bjarki Bjarkason0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Simone Davì0%
Vasco Lopes0%
Rareș Burnete0%
Davide Veroli0%
Riccardo Stivanello0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alessandro Plizzari0%
Bjarki Bjarkason0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Simone Davì0%
Vasco Lopes0%
Aljoša Vasić0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Rareș Burnete0%
Davide Veroli0%
Riccardo Stivanello0%
Virtus Entella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrea Tiritiello33%
Bernat Guiu33%
Andrea Franzoni33%
Francesco Forte0%
Luca Parodi0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Niccolò Squizzato0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Stefano Di Mario0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Parodi33%
Bernat Guiu33%
Niccolò Squizzato33%
Stefano Di Mario33%
Francesco Forte0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Andrea Tiritiello0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Andrea Franzoni0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Franzoni33%
Francesco Forte0%
Luca Parodi0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Andrea Tiritiello0%
Bernat Guiu0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Niccolò Squizzato0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Stefano Di Mario0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bernat Guiu33%
Andrea Franzoni33%
Francesco Forte0%
Luca Parodi0%
Lucas Felippe0%
Andrea Tiritiello0%
Federico Del Frate0%
Niccolò Squizzato0%
Giacomo Corona0%
Stefano Di Mario0%
Mattia Tirelli0%
Mattia Alborghetti0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Sudtirol's squad is €11m more valuable than Virtus Entella's (€21m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Sudtirol and Virtus Entella have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Sudtirol's midfield is €5m more valuable than Virtus Entella's (€11m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Sudtirol's defence is €6m more valuable than Virtus Entella's (€8m vs €2m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
Cremonese