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Suduva Marijampole vs Banga Result & Analysis

Date: 17/08/2025
Time: 15:25
Final 2-1
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Vs
45%
35%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Banga
Banga
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity is the headline for this encounter, with Suduva Marijampole’s home form showing a low 0.5 goals conceded per game and Banga’s away side leaking 1.25. The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair, projecting an average of 1.8 goals and a most likely total of two, though the single most probable scoreline is 0-0 at 18.2%. Suduva’s 1.5 goals per match at home versus similar opposition and Banga’s 0.62 away goals per match set the stage for a cautious battle. The model favours a Home win, with a 45% chance, a Draw at 35%, and an Away win at 21%. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 at 89.5% and Under 2.5 at 73.8%. Suduva are on a five-game winning streak, while Banga return from a draw, adding extra narrative to a match that looks set to stay tight.

Results analysis

Suduva Marijampole extended their five-game winning streak with a 2-1 victory over Banga, confirming the model’s call of a home win at 45% probability. The pre-match favourite was indeed the home side, and the prediction proved correct. The model’s suggested picks performed mixedly: “Under 3.5” hit with an 89.5% chance, while “Under 2.5” missed despite a 73.8% probability. The final score of 2-1 matched the most likely 1-0 or 1-1 outcomes, but the actual result still favored the home side. Overall, the model’s main call was accurate, though its over-2.5 goal prediction faltered.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
44.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Banga win✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D22D22D20W21W00D23L22D01L20WH·KAU13/06H·FK 19/06A·ŠIA25/06A·HEG30/06A·PAN07/07H·FK 20/07H·DŽI27/07A·DAI03/08A·FK 07/08A·KAU10/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.971.420.581.781.22
vs Stronger (7)1.141.141.001.001.201.20
vs Similar (22)1.730.911.500.501.921.25
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BangaBanga

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W12L02L01L00D05L02L10W20W01LA·DŽI19/06A·DAI24/06H·KAU30/06A·FK 04/07A·DŽI13/07A·ROS24/07H·ROS31/07H·ŠIA04/08H·FK 10/08H·HEG13/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.200.881.060.641.36
vs Stronger (12)0.671.330.861.000.401.80
vs Similar (17)0.761.180.891.110.621.25
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%18%028%128%216%37%42%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.2%
Under 1.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
26.2%
Under 2.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.5%
Under 3.5
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
33.9%
No
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.2%
1-0
17.5%
1-1
13.8%
2-0
10.4%
0-1
10.1%
2-1 ✓
6.9%
1-2
4.2%
3-0
3.8%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Banga goals →
01234
018%10%3.8%0.8%0.1%
118%14%4.2%0.9%0.2%
210%6.9%2.3%0.5%0.1%
33.8%2.6%0.9%0.2%0.0%
41.1%0.7%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Banga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Dainava
0.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.47 points better than Banga in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.28 goals better than Banga in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Suduva Marijampole and Banga are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D10W21W00D02L00D01L00DH·KAU13/06H·FK 19/06A·ŠIA25/06A·HEG30/06A·PAN07/07H·FK 20/07H·DŽI27/07A·DAI03/08A·FK 07/08A·KAU10/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.370.920.250.720.44
vs Stronger (7)0.290.430.500.500.200.40
vs Similar (22)0.910.361.000.200.830.50
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BangaBanga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W00D01L00D01L00D10W10W01LA·DŽI19/06A·DAI24/06H·KAU30/06A·FK 04/07A·DŽI13/07A·ROS24/07H·ROS31/07H·ŠIA04/08H·FK 10/08H·HEG13/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.330.380.380.360.29
vs Stronger (12)0.170.330.290.290.000.40
vs Similar (17)0.410.350.440.440.380.25
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D22D10W00D00D21W22D00D20WH·KAU13/06H·FK 19/06A·ŠIA25/06A·HEG30/06A·PAN07/07H·FK 20/07H·DŽI27/07A·DAI03/08A·FK 07/08A·KAU10/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.600.500.331.060.78
vs Stronger (7)0.860.710.500.501.000.80
vs Similar (22)0.820.550.500.301.080.75
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BangaBanga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L02L00D00D04L02L00D10W00DA·DŽI19/06A·DAI24/06H·KAU30/06A·FK 04/07A·DŽI13/07A·ROS24/07H·ROS31/07H·ŠIA04/08H·FK 10/08H·HEG13/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.870.500.690.291.07
vs Stronger (12)0.501.000.570.710.401.40
vs Similar (17)0.350.820.440.670.251.00
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.589.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.573.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Banga have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Banga have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Banga have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Banga have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
SM wins
1
Draws
2
BAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole vs Banga · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25ABanga Vs SM0-1
09/03/25HSM Vs Banga1-0
27/10/24HSM Vs Banga2-0
02/08/24ABanga Vs SM1-0
01/06/24HSM Vs Banga1-0
10/04/24ABanga Vs SM0-0
03/11/23ABanga Vs SM1-0
11/08/23HSM Vs Banga1-0

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM0-2
07/08/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM1-0
03/08/25ADainava Vs SM2-2
27/07/25HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-3
20/07/25HSM Vs FK Trakai0-0
07/07/25APanevėžys Vs SM1-2
30/06/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM0-2
25/06/25AŠiauliai Vs SM2-2
19/06/25HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-2
13/06/25HSM Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-0

BangaBanga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/25HBAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1
10/08/25HBAN Vs FK Trakai2-0
04/08/25HBAN Vs Šiauliai1-0
31/07/25HBAN Vs Rosenborg0-2
24/07/25ARosenborg Vs BAN5-0
13/07/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs BAN0-0
04/07/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs BAN1-0
30/06/25HBAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-2
24/06/25ADainava Vs BAN2-1
19/06/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs BAN0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLW1.48
HomeWDDDL1.58
AwayWWDLW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.381.832.88
Over 1.5 %62%46%77%
Over 2.5 %46%29%62%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.321.121.50
Conceded1.060.711.38
BTTS44%38%50%
Clean Sheet40%54%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Banga
Banga
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.24
HomeLLWWL1.15
AwayWLLDL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%31%38%
AVG goals2.142.192.08
Over 1.5 %66%69%62%
Over 2.5 %30%27%33%
Over 3.5 %14%15%12%
Scored0.961.000.92
Conceded1.181.191.17
BTTS34%38%29%
Clean Sheet36%31%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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