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Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction & Stats

Date: 07/11/2026
Time: 12:15
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Vs
53%
27%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Suduva Marijampole are tipped to win, a 51% chance against a 27% draw and 22% away win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability. Home side Sunduva, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. Away side Džiugas, on the road against a similar strength opponent, averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.6%), Home +2 handicap (92.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.0%) and Under 4.5 (88.1%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Suduva Marijampole win
52.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai win
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W22D12L22D00D51W30W20W20W21WH·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11A·MIN28/04H·TRA06/07H·HEG20/07A·BAN09/08A·DŽI17/08H·PAN23/08A·ŠIA30/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.031.571.211.440.88
vs Stronger (6)1.171.171.331.671.000.67
vs Similar (23)1.570.961.641.091.500.83
vs Weaker (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D12L10W01L11D43W02L02L22DA·NEP22/04H·BAN20/05A·ŠIA24/06H·BAN19/07A·TRA26/07A·PAN03/08A·ŠIA09/08H·SUD17/08A·FK 23/08H·HEG31/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.370.931.361.441.38
vs Stronger (14)0.861.791.002.000.751.62
vs Similar (16)1.501.000.880.882.121.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.3%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
5.9%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Džiugas Telšiai goals →
01234
08.7%5.9%3.3%1.0%0.2%
111%13%5.5%1.7%0.4%
210%9.6%4.5%1.4%0.3%
35.6%5.3%2.5%0.8%0.2%
42.3%2.2%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Džiugas Telšiai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Suduva Marijampole is 1.52 points better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Suduva Marijampole is 1.19 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Suduva Marijampole is 1.24 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Suduva Marijampole or Draw
79.7%
Avg Implied -
53%
27%
20%
covers Suduva Marijampole + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole or Džiugas Telšiai
73.1%
Avg Implied -
53%
27%
20%
covers Suduva Marijampole + Džiugas Telšiai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
47.2%
Avg Implied -
53%
27%
20%
covers Draw + Džiugas Telšiai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5
Over
24.1%
Under
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Suduva Marijampole, so a minus line means Suduva Marijampole give that many goals of a start and Džiugas Telšiai receive them. At -1, Suduva Marijampole must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Suduva Marijampole win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole -2
12.6%
Draw -2
16.6%
Džiugas Telšiai +2
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole -1
29.2%
Draw -1
23.7%
Džiugas Telšiai +1
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole +1
79.7%
Draw +1
13.0%
Džiugas Telšiai -1
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole +2
92.7%
Draw +2
5.4%
Džiugas Telšiai -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D01L00D30W20W00D00D10WH·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11A·MIN28/04H·TRA06/07H·HEG20/07A·BAN09/08A·DŽI17/08H·PAN23/08A·ŠIA30/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.430.360.640.440.25
vs Stronger (6)0.170.670.331.000.000.33
vs Similar (23)0.480.350.360.550.580.17
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D10W00D01L31W00D00D10WA·NEP22/04H·BAN20/05A·ŠIA24/06H·BAN19/07A·TRA26/07A·PAN03/08A·ŠIA09/08H·SUD17/08A·FK 23/08H·HEG31/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.360.570.810.50
vs Stronger (14)0.360.790.331.000.380.62
vs Similar (16)0.810.310.380.251.250.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W12L21W00D21W10W20W20W11DH·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11A·MIN28/04H·TRA06/07H·HEG20/07A·BAN09/08A·DŽI17/08H·PAN23/08A·ŠIA30/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.601.210.571.000.62
vs Stronger (6)1.000.501.000.671.000.33
vs Similar (23)1.090.611.270.550.920.67
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L00D01L10W12L02L02L12LA·NEP22/04H·BAN20/05A·ŠIA24/06H·BAN19/07A·TRA26/07A·PAN03/08A·ŠIA09/08H·SUD17/08A·FK 23/08H·HEG31/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.830.570.790.620.88
vs Stronger (14)0.501.000.671.000.381.00
vs Similar (16)0.690.690.500.620.880.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.5%-------
Under 6.598.3%-------
Under 5.595.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals93.1%-------
Home +2 handicap92.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.5%-------
Under 4.588.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals80.7%-------
Home or Draw79.7%-------
Home +1 handicap79.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals77.2%-------
Away under 1.5 goals75.9%-------
Over 1.574.1%-------
Under 3.574.0%-------
Home or Away73.1%-------
Away +2 handicap70.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Suduva Marijampole's squad is €1m more valuable than Džiugas Telšiai's (€6m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Suduva Marijampole's attack is €2m more valuable than Džiugas Telšiai's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
SM wins
2
Draws
3
DT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/26ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM0-2
18/10/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM0-0
27/07/25HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-3
25/05/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM1-1
28/03/25HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0
14/09/24HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-1
30/06/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM1-0
11/05/24HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-1

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AŠiauliai Vs SM1-2
23/08/26HSM Vs Panevėžys2-0
17/08/26ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM0-2
09/08/26ABanga Vs SM0-3
20/07/26HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen5-1
06/07/26HSM Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-0
28/04/26AMinija Vs SM2-2
08/11/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-1
02/11/25HSM Vs Šiauliai2-2
27/10/25HSM Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-0

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26HDT Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-2
23/08/26AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs DT2-0
17/08/26HDT Vs Suduva Marijampole0-2
09/08/26AŠiauliai Vs DT3-4
03/08/26APanevėžys Vs DT1-1
26/07/26ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs DT1-0
19/07/26HDT Vs Banga1-0
24/06/26AŠiauliai Vs DT2-1
20/05/26HDT Vs Banga0-0
22/04/26ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs DT0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.82
HomeWDDWW1.91
AwayLDWWW1.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%52%48%
AVG goals2.522.352.67
Over 1.5 %70%61%78%
Over 2.5 %50%43%56%
Over 3.5 %28%30%26%
Scored1.581.521.63
Conceded0.940.831.04
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet44%48%41%
Corners---
Cards---
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLD1.36
HomeWDWLD0.91
AwayLLDWL1.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%17%56%
AVG goals2.342.092.56
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %36%30%41%
Over 3.5 %20%17%22%
Scored1.100.871.30
Conceded1.241.221.26
BTTS46%52%41%
Clean Sheet30%22%37%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole616
83%
2.7
142+12
2.7
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2122.30.3
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius612
67%
2.0
138+5
3.5
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.21.3
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris511
60%
2.2
101+9
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.2
-
4PanevėžysPanevėžys811
38%
1.4
98+1
2.1
88%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.11.0
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius811
38%
1.4
910-1
2.4
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.2
-
6BangaBanga811
38%
1.4
1012-2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.21.5
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai78
29%
1.1
811-3
2.7
71%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.6
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen86
12%
0.8
1016-6
3.2
100%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.22.0
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai83
12%
0.4
621-15
3.4
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2230.82.6
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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