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Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Result & Analysis

Date: 29/09/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-3
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Vs
36%
30%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✓ Hit
34.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D01L20W21W12L21W11D02L10W11DA·DAI03/08A·FK 07/08A·KAU10/08H·BAN17/08A·ŠIA25/08H·HEG30/08H·PAN12/09H·PAN16/09A·BAN21/09A·KAU24/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.871.430.861.560.88
vs Stronger (7)0.711.001.001.000.601.00
vs Similar (22)1.680.821.500.831.900.80
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L12L10W22D21W11D22D21W20W20WA·LIN31/07H·KAU04/08H·SUD07/08A·ŠIA11/08H·FK 17/08H·DAI20/08A·HEG24/08H·PAN31/08A·BAN13/09A·FK 19/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.131.380.751.571.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.231.691.291.291.172.17
vs Weaker (17)1.650.711.440.331.881.12
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.9%
Under 2.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.1%
1-0
9.5%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.3%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals →
01234
010%9.2%6.3%2.5%0.8%
19.5%14%7.8%3.1%0.9%
26.7%8.0%4.8%1.9%0.6%
32.7%3.3%2.0%0.8%0.2%
40.8%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.08 points worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.72).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.17 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Banga
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Suduva Marijampole is 0.14 goals better than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L00D01L01L11D01L00D10W00DA·DAI03/08A·FK 07/08A·KAU10/08H·BAN17/08A·ŠIA25/08H·HEG30/08H·PAN12/09H·PAN16/09A·BAN21/09A·KAU24/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.330.860.430.620.25
vs Stronger (7)0.140.430.500.500.000.40
vs Similar (22)0.860.320.920.420.800.20
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L10W11D11D00D02L10W10W10WA·LIN31/07H·KAU04/08H·SUD07/08A·ŠIA11/08H·FK 17/08H·DAI20/08A·HEG24/08H·PAN31/08A·BAN13/09A·FK 19/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.560.310.711.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.541.150.570.430.502.00
vs Weaker (17)0.710.410.560.220.880.62
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D00D20W20W11D10W10W02L00D11DA·DAI03/08A·FK 07/08A·KAU10/08H·BAN17/08A·ŠIA25/08H·HEG30/08H·PAN12/09H·PAN16/09A·BAN21/09A·KAU24/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.570.430.940.62
vs Stronger (7)0.570.570.500.500.600.60
vs Similar (22)0.820.500.580.421.100.60
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D11D10W11D20W11D10W10WA·LIN31/07H·KAU04/08H·SUD07/08A·ŠIA11/08H·FK 17/08H·DAI20/08A·HEG24/08H·PAN31/08A·BAN13/09A·FK 19/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.400.810.440.860.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.710.860.670.17
vs Weaker (17)0.940.290.890.111.000.50
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.571.2%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole's squad is €1m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€6m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole's midfield is €1m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
SM wins
4
Draws
4
FZV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM1-0
19/06/25HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-2
16/04/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM3-0
25/08/24HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-1
23/06/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM4-0
28/04/24HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-1
10/03/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM3-3
30/09/23HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-2

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM1-1
21/09/25ABanga Vs SM0-1
16/09/25HSM Vs Panevėžys0-2
12/09/25HSM Vs Panevėžys1-1
30/08/25HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-1
25/08/25AŠiauliai Vs SM2-1
17/08/25HSM Vs Banga2-1
10/08/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM0-2
07/08/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM1-0
03/08/25ADainava Vs SM2-2

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/09/25AFK Trakai Vs FZV0-2
13/09/25ABanga Vs FZV0-2
31/08/25HFZV Vs Panevėžys2-1
24/08/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV2-2
20/08/25HFZV Vs Dainava1-1
17/08/25HFZV Vs FK Trakai2-1
11/08/25AŠiauliai Vs FZV2-2
07/08/25HFZV Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
04/08/25HFZV Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-2
31/07/25ALinfield Vs FZV2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.62
HomeLWWDL1.71
AwayLWLWD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%42%42%
AVG goals2.301.832.73
Over 1.5 %66%54%77%
Over 2.5 %44%29%58%
Over 3.5 %22%17%27%
Scored1.361.171.54
Conceded0.940.671.19
BTTS48%42%54%
Clean Sheet40%50%31%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWW1.68
HomeLWWDW1.96
AwayLDDWW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%56%35%
AVG goals2.662.522.83
Over 1.5 %78%78%78%
Over 2.5 %46%48%43%
Over 3.5 %28%22%35%
Scored1.621.671.57
Conceded1.040.851.26
BTTS48%56%39%
Clean Sheet36%41%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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